078
FXUS64 KSJT 282326
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
626 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hotter today with temperatures across the Big Country around the
  100 degree mark.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible north of I-20 this evening
  as a cold front moves into the area.

- Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the
  weekend, along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A cold front will move into the Big Country this evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along the front, with most activity dissipating by mid to
late evening. Overnight lows will generally be in the low tom id
70s.

The aforementioned cold front will likely be located across our
central counties on Friday. The front may serve as the focus for
shower and thunderstorm development, especially during the
afternoon hours. Most CAMs are showing at least isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the boundary, with the
HRRR being the driest and the FV3 and RRFS showing the most
coverage. Given the uncertainty on coverage, kept PoPs in the
slight chance category at this time, but these may eventually need
to be adjusted up. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 80s to
low 90s across the Big Country, which will be behind the front, to
the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Friday night, main potential for showers and thunderstorms will
be across the Big Country. Best potential will be toward or after
midnight as an upper shortwave moves across in northwest flow. A
stationary front across the Big Country Friday night then pushes
south Saturday into the Concho Valley/Heartland providing a focus
for additional showers and thunderstorm development. Another
stronger upper short wave then moves through Saturday night, with
additional showers and thunderstorms into Sunday. Sunday night
into Monday , the front moves south of the region, with the focus
of storms along/south of I-10.

Main hazard with the storms will be heavy rainfall and potential
flooding, particularly Saturday night into Sunday. There is still
a high level of uncertainly with rainfall amounts. However,
general rainfall amounts 1 to 2.5 inches through the weekend, with
higher amounts possible. The higher amounts look focused over the
Big Country/Northern Heartland, but 1 to 2 inches possible from
the Concho Valley to Brady, San Saba. The I-10 corridor is
generally in the 1/2 to 1 inch range.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms remain Monday and
Tuesday, with main focus in southern sections. Drier air moves in
midweek behind the front the first have of the week, but a chance
of showers returns late Wednesday night into Thursday. At this
time, it appears rainfall amounts will be light Tuesday on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at all
sites. Isolated to scattered TSRA are developing north of KABI at
this time, and will continue developing as the storms move south.
KABI may be affected by scattered TSRA this evening, so have kept
the Prob30 group addressing that potential. Otherwise, a cold
front and wind shift will move through the KABI terminal as well
later tonight turning winds to the north there. The front is
expected to stall before making to the southern sites, so winds
will remain southerly across those locations tomorrow. There is a
chance for additional storms tomorrow, but lack of confidence in
coverage precludes the need for a mention of them at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  93  71  89 /  20  20  20  60
San Angelo  73  97  71  94 /  10  20  20  60
Junction    71  98  71  96 /   0  20  10  50
Brownwood   73  95  71  90 /  10  30  20  60
Sweetwater  72  94  71  90 /  20  20  20  60
Ozona       72  97  72  95 /   0  20  10  40
Brady       74  94  73  91 /  10  30  20  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20