146
FXUS64 KSJT 142343 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
543 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temperatures through Sunday.

- Rain chances (40%-70%) increase for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
Texas. This will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions
across West Central Texas. The record high temperature on November
15th at Abilene is 85 while it is 86 at San Angelo. Abilene has a
high chance of breaking or tying the record while San Angelo has a
medium chance of tying or breaking the record. Expect highs across
the area in the mid 80s to near 90.

Overnight lows will be mild, in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Stratus is
forecast to overspread the southern half of the area by daybreak,
with mostly clear skies returning by mid to late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 146 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Well-above normal temperatures are expected to continue on Sunday as
the persistent upper-level ridge will remain in place until Monday.
Despite the intrusion of a weak cold front, Sunday looks to be the
warmest day due to the strength of the ridge. The daily records for
high temperatures on Sunday are 86 in Abilene and 87 in San Angelo.
Forecast highs at these locations are expected to tie or break these
records that day.  The ridge will start to break down on Monday as
an upper-level trough will push out of the Desert Southwest into the
central Plains.  Another warm and somewhat breezy day can be
expected, although it should be several degrees cooler than Sunday.

A pattern change is in store for the middle to latter half of next
week.  Models show a strong upper-level trough that should dig into
northern Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of this feature,
plenty of gulf moisture looks to be advected into west central Texas
with a decent amount of instability.  As a result, models show
medium (40-70%) chances of rain and thunderstorms for Tuesday night
through Thursday, which has trended higher each day.  Amounts,
severity, and timing will vary quite a bit over the next few days
depending on how the track of the main trough evolves.  For now,
this feature will continue to be monitored for finer details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Initially clear skies and VFR conditions will be followed by
low cloud development from the south late tonight into Saturday
morning. Expect low cloud cover the overspread much of the
southern half of our area by 12Z-13Z Saturday. Ceilings will be
initially MVFR, but should drop to IFR at KJCT and KSOA after
12Z. Some of the low cloud cover may briefly develop north over
KSJT between 13Z and 16Z. The low cloud cover is expected to
break up in the mid-to-late morning time frame, with generally
clear skies and VFR conditions area wide in the afternoon.
South or south-southwest winds will remain somewhat gusty at
KABI tonight, but will decrease at our other TAF sites. On
Saturday, south-southwest winds will increase and become gusty
again by 15Z at KABI, and between 16Z and 17Z at our other TAF
sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  88  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  57  85  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    55  84  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   55  86  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  60  88  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       55  81  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       58  84  58  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19