334
FXUS62 KTAE 070553
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
153 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

 - Unseasonable warmth and humidity today and Wednesday with Heat
   Indices reaching the mid to upper 90s each afternoon.

 - Mostly dry conditions expected to continue. Drought relief is
   not anticipated through the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Surface high pressure weakens through the period while an upper
level ridge over the region will begin to break down ahead of our
next frontal system. The persistent easterly flow regime we`ve
been under will likely continue into Wednesday night but it
should lighten up as upper level flow becomes more amplified
ahead of our next front.

By Thursday and Thursday night, this frontal system (a backdoor
cold front which will move in from the northeast) will be on the
doorstep with stronger northeasterly flow expected to begin
redeveloping across the area as surface high pressure begins to
build in from the northeast.

Mostly dry conditions should prevail through the middle of the
week but a few isolated showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out the next few days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

As the upper level pattern becomes highly amplified across the US
and a trough begins to develop across the southeast states, the
backdoor front is expected to push through the forecast area.
Further east of the region, and helping to aid in the
northeasterly flow, cyclogenesis should begin to take shape off
the east coast of Florida. This pattern will reinforce the
stronger northeasterly flow across the region and allow dry
conditions to continue. It should also allow cooler temperatures
back into the forecast with many locations likely seeing overnight
lows drop into the 50s at some point this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR conditions prevail for the next few hours. MVFR/IFR cigs will
develop and move in from the northeast toward ABY/VLD/DHN. TEMPO
groups remain for LIFR cigs and some patchy fog at these sites.
Guidance has backed off on the southwest extent to ECP and TLH.
Still think it`s possible for these to experience lower cigs, so
have walked back from prevailing to TEMPO. Conditions will improve
between 14z and 16z with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Conditions dry out through the middle of the week with east to
northeast flow remaining in place. Transport winds should
decrease Tuesday and Wednesday with good dispersions remaining in
place as conditions warm. Chance for wetting rains remain low
into the upcoming weekend. Recent rains should keep fire weather
concerns on the lower side but as a frontal system moves through
late this week and into the weekend, fire concerns will increase
some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Conditions dry out through the middle of the week with east to
northeast flow remaining in place. Transport winds should
decrease Tuesday and Wednesday with good dispersions remaining in
place as conditions warm. Chance for wetting rains remain low
into the upcoming weekend. Recent rains should keep fire weather
concerns on the lower side but as a frontal system moves through
late this week and into the weekend, fire concerns will increase
some.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

No significant hydrological issues are expected in the next seven
days with mostly dry conditions forecast. Riverine issues are not
anticipated either given lower flows on area rivers. Recent rains
have not been enough to improve drought conditions are it`s likely
current drought conditions will persist through at least the next
7 to 10 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  69  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
Panama City   88  72  89  72 /  10  10  10  10
Dothan        88  69  88  69 /  10  10  10  10
Albany        89  68  89  69 /  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      89  68  90  69 /  20  10   0  10
Cross City    90  68  90  70 /  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  85  72  84  72 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for FLZ108-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ this morning for
     GMZ752-755-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs