405
FXUS62 KTAE 272333
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
733 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

An upper low remains in place across the region, providing a
favorable environment for diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. Overall, today`s convection evolved in part from
the outflow from storms over the marine area and early initiation
of the Florida Big Bend seabreeze. Recent animated visible
satellite imagery shows the outflow from these storms outpacing
the convective cores in the Florida Big Bend, but the outflow is
now beginning to intersect the Florida Panhandle seabreeze. This
will lead to increasing storm coverage in the Florida Panhandle
and eventually into Southeastern Alabama and far Southwestern
Georgia through the evening hours. Given the moist environment,
storms are anticipated to stay below severe limits, however, some
strong storms with wind gusts up to 50 mph are certainly possible.
Storm motions today are sufficiently fast to limit the flash
flood threat.

Overnight, convection should once again develop over the offshore
waters and could be fairly active through the night, while
conditions over land remain relatively quiet as the daytime
heating is lost.

For Saturday, while there is some uncertainty with the convective
pattern due to remnant outflow and how much convection develops
over the waters overnight, the S-SW 1000-700 mb flow would suggest
a slightly later start to convection (18-20z Sat timeframe) and
then spreading inland fairly quickly. As a result, have kept PoPs
on the higher side in the Florida Counties from Tallahassee
westward and then tapered them down to the north as it is possible
instability wanes by the time the sea breeze front makes it as far
north as Dothan or Albany. Overall, convective storm coverage will
keep maxTs from getting too high, generally in the 90-93 degree
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

As the strong upper level high moves out to the Atlantic, a long
wave trough begins to move in Saturday evening and Sunday
bringing southwesterly flow to the forecast region. This flow will
bring moisture from the Gulf increasing PWATs overall. This,
along with the rising motion provided from the synoptic troughing
will allow for an active convection regime over the course of this
next week.

The trough will remain stagnant through much of next week
bringing in cloudy conditions each afternoon inhibiting max temps
to reach as high as seen last this week. Similar temperature and
convective patterns are expected in the earlier half of the week.
Precip chances are trending to decrease starting Thursday as
ridging behind the upper level trough moves in and the airmass
converts from extremely moist to dry. However, lingering moisture
in the southeast part of the forecast area, near the big bend, can
still expect favorable conditions for storm development before
the drier airmass completely moves in over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites with a southwesterly to
southerly breeze through the period. Another round of showers and
a few thunderstorms is possible along the Gulf coast early
Saturday morning, so included some VCSH at KECP to account for
that possibility. Those showers and storms push inland Saturday
afternoon and attempted to hone in on the best window for those
showers and storms to be near/over the TAF sites with VCTS and
PROB30 groups.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

As high pressure begins to drift southward over the Gulf, gentle
southeast breezes will clock around out of the west to southwest and
become gentle to moderate. Showers and thunderstorms will remain
likely through the period, mainly in the overnight and morning
hours, diminishing some during the day except near the coast. Gusty
winds, dangerous lightning, and waterspouts will be possible in the
stronger storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place for the
next several days with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal outside of gusty
and erratic winds near thunderstorms along with lightning and
pockets of heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Widespread rainfall over the next several days is expected to add
up to 4-5 inches of rain across portions of North Florida with
lesser amounts up into Georgia. Of course, this is over a broad
area, as localized amounts could be much heavier. In this sort of
wet pattern, individual thunderstorms could lead to flash
flooding, especially in urban environments given the high rainfall
rates. River flooding, however, is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  91  73  91 /  20  70  30  90
Panama City   75  90  76  90 /  20  60  60  80
Dothan        71  91  71  91 /  20  60  30  80
Albany        71  91  71  92 /  30  50  20  70
Valdosta      72  93  72  92 /  30  60  20  80
Cross City    71  93  72  92 /  30  60  50  80
Apalachicola  77  88  77  88 /  20  60  60  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Bowser
LONG TERM....Bowser
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Godsey