274
FXUS62 KTAE 051929
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
229 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Fog, locally dense, is expected again tonight across much of the
  area. Allow for extra time if traveling or commuting late
  tonight into Friday morning.

- Notably drier and cooler weather arrives this weekend and
  persists into next week. Chilly nights & mornings are in store
  beginning Saturday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

A cold front is beginning to enter our southeast Alabama counties
this afternoon. Along and ahead of the front, a narrow band of
showers will continue to move slowly eastward. While a flash of
lightning or two is possible, the chances for thunderstorms this
afternoon is low. The front will slowly move into the Florida
Panhandle and near the AL/GA line tonight with only isolated
showers at best expected.

The main story tonight will be the fog potential. Warm, moist air
will move in from the south over the relatively cooler waters of
Apalachee Bay. This sets up an advection fog regime along and
ahead of the front from late tonight into Friday morning. Given
dew points well into the upper 60s to mid 70s, the fog could be
dense, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed later tonight. The
greatest probability of fog will be across the Florida and Georgia
counties, though it could sneak into southeast Alabama should the
front be a bit slower with its eastward progression. Lows tonight
will be in the mid to upper 60s.

A shortwave ejecting out of the southern Plains will kick our
front through the rest of the area during the day Friday.
Scattered showers will be possible again along and ahead of the
front in the Florida Big Bend and south Georgia, but a
thunderstorms or two cannot be totally ruled out. Drier air will
begin to move in behind the front. Highs will range from the upper
70s in southeast Alabama to the mid 80s in the southeast Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Some chilly nights are on the way as Canadian high pressure slides
southward into the central and eastern parts of the country. This
will also keep a lid on any rain chances as well. Lows Friday
night will be seasonable, mostly in the 50s. But, it`s Saturday
night that will be the coolest. Most areas will see lows in the
40s. A few pockets in the normally colder spots in southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia could sneak into the upper 30s.
However, the chances of any frost, even in these colder spots, is
very low given that winds will still be a bit elevated.

Temperatures remain fairly steady into next week as high pressure
remains anchored in place. However, confidence in the forecast
grows more iffy as the subtropical jet tries to become more
active. Latest guidance shows that the storm track will mostly be
out over the central and southern Gulf, and we may be well removed
from rain chances. We`ll continue to monitor trends to see if that
holds. If it does, then seasonably comfortable days and cool
nights and dry weather will prevail. If the subtropical jet is a
bit farther north, then we may see some increase in rain chances
mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions prevail this afternoon. A band of of SHRA
stretches currently from DHN to DTS, moving slowly E. Thus, VCSH
continues for ECP and DHN this afternoon into tonight before
weakening. Cigs will quickly drop off to IFR and LIFR overnight
tonight. Fog will also develop across the area tonight with the
best chances at TLH and VLD, but fog is still possible at ECP,
DHN, and ABY. VLIFR conditions are possible within the fog.
Conditions improve back to VFR mid to late Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Some patchy sea fog is possible this evening into Friday morning in
the nearshore waters of Apalachee Bay as well as in St. Andrews
Bay. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly breezes tonight will
become moderate northwesterly breezes through the day Friday as a
cold front passes through the marine area. Cautionary level
northerly winds are expected Friday night and Saturday night over
the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate breezes will become more
northeasterly Sunday into Monday as high pressure slides into the
central and eastern parts of the US. Seas generally remain around
1-3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Scattered showers remain possible through Friday as a cold front
slowly moves through the area. Transport winds will become westerly
to northwesterly on Friday around 10-15 mph behind the cold front,
then turn northerly to northeasterly over the weekend. Drier air
will also move in, though RH values should stay above critical
levels. Dispersions will be fair to good each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Only light rain amounts are expected, and flooding is not
anticipated during the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  67  82  58 /  10  10  20   0
Panama City   80  68  80  57 /  10  20  10   0
Dothan        81  64  78  52 /  40  10  10   0
Albany        82  66  79  53 /  20  20  30   0
Valdosta      85  67  82  56 /  10   0  30   0
Cross City    85  68  83  61 /  10   0  20   0
Apalachicola  79  69  79  60 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ755.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young