497
FXUS62 KTAE 201501
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1001 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

 - Fog will continue to be a concern the next 2-3 mornings, some
   of which may be dense at times. Exercise caution if commuting
   under such conditions.

- Record to near-record high temperatures are forecast today.

- Drought persists and/or worsens with little to no rain and
  unseasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week.



.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

No change to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog during the overnight and early morning hrs and unseasonably warm
high temperatures are the main weather headlines for the remainder
of the work week thanks to prevailing surface high pressure. A
sufficiently moist & stable boundary layer amidst light/calm winds
will be favorable for dense fog where advisories are in place mainly
across our Central Timezone counties until 15Z. Trends will be
monitored as we approach sunrise to see if any eastward expansions
are needed.

Foggy conditions improve mid to late morning with plentiful sunshine
prompting high temperatures to soar into the low to near mid 80s
away from the immediate coast. In fact, daily record highs will be
challenged as an anomalously strong upper ridge traverses the
Central Gulf Coast with 500-mb heights around 588 dm. Looking at SPC
sounding climo for KTLH, 588 dm is above the 90th percentile for
November 20th. Here are today`s forecast highs/record highs:
Tallahassee - 83/84, Albany - 82/85, Valdosta - 83/85, Dothan -
83/83.

A less dry airmass and the presence of fog/low clouds cause
temperatures to bottom out in the low/mid 50s tonight into Friday.
Fog initiates near the coast overnight, then spreads inland through
the pre-dawn hrs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Very warm and mostly dry conditions prevail through the weekend as a
stout ridge anchors itself across the Central Gulf. A frontal system
attempts to approach us from the west Friday-Saturday, but much of
its associated convection looks to ride over the ridge`s crest with
the bulk of the precipitation unfortunately staying north of the Tri-
State area. There is a puncher`s chance of showers (around 15%) over
the Wiregrass Region on Saturday, but coverage appears isolated at
best. The warmest stretch of the long-term period will be Friday
night through Saturday when highs climb to the low 80s with
widespread lows in the 60s!

Frontal passage occurs Saturday night-Sunday morning with winds
switching from west-SW to NW. The latter brings a temporary shot of
drier and slightly cooler continental air, which should knock
temperatures down by a couple degrees or so Sunday night through
Monday afternoon - lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s/low
80s.

Looking towards mid next week, another frontal system
tracks across the MS Valley with its parent trough being stronger
than its predecessor such that the aforementioned ridge
weakens/retreats to the Bahamas in response. As a result, the
prospects for rain are better compared to the weekend. At this time,
the highest PoPs (~25-40%) are NW of Tallahassee Tuesday-Wednesday.
Increased cloud cover and precipitation in addition to lowering
height falls reduces high temperatures to the 70s while raising lows
to the upper 50s/low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog and low stratus will continuing affecting most terminals until
about 15Z with vsbys bouncing up & down to 1/4SM or less. Airport
minimums are expected during that time before conds improve mid to
late morning. Light and variable winds turn southerly this aftn.
Another round of fog returns late tonight into early tmrw morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

An ASCAT pass showed light/calm winds over Apalachee Bay late last
night. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9AM CST at St
Andrews Bay for visibility of 1 mile or less.

CWF Synopsis: Light and variable winds turn southeasterly today with
surface high pressure across the region. Winds then gradually veer
to southerly Friday night to moderate southwest breezes on Saturday
ahead of an approaching cold front. Frontal passage occurs Saturday
night or Sunday morning with west winds quickly turning
northwesterly. An afternoon seabreeze prompts an onshore flow across
the immediate nearshore legs. Moderate easterlies overtake the
waters on Monday. Overall, favorable boating conditions are expected
outside of patchy sea fog the next couple days along the nearshore
waters out to 20 nautical miles from the coast with locally dense
fog at St Andrews Bay until later this morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Light and variable transport winds on Thursday with mixing heights
around 3,000-4,000 ft will lead to low dispersions for much of the
area. Minimum RH values will mostly be in the 40s to low 50s
Thursday afternoon. Transport winds will increase out of the south
to southwest for Friday and Saturday with higher mixing heights,
thus dispersions are expected to be fair to good both afternoons.
Minimum RH for Friday and Saturday afternoons will rise to the 50s
and 60s. Chances for wetting rains on Saturday are very low (less
than 5%).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Little to no rainfall expected through early next week means that
drought will persist and/or worsen.

For our latest drought information statements, visit:
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

There is some optimism for better rain prospects mid to late next
week, but it is too early to advertise with much confidence.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  56  81  63 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   79  62  78  66 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        83  55  80  65 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        83  55  81  63 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      84  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  53  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  60  76  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...IG3