009
FXUS62 KTBW 031229
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
829 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A few clouds and as frontal boundary stalls across south Florida
as upper level trough remains along the Eastern Seaboard. Drier
air tries to make it south with higher moisture anticipated along
and south of the I-4 corridor through the period. Wherever the
moisture is available, that is where showers and storms will
develop. Afternoon temperatures during this time will be around 90
degrees with overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s north to
mid 70s south.

On Thursday, similar conditions are expected with moisture staying
across southern portions of the state near aforementioned stationary
front. Troughiness is enhanced by Canadian low that pushes across
the Great Lakes early on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Going into the weekend, the U/L low finally slides out as high
pressure begins to build at the surface. Periods of showers and
storms will be determined by the moisture availability. Areas
along the Nature Coast will likely not have much coverage, while
area south of Tampa Bay could see more activity during on Friday
and through the weekend.

In terms of temperatures, conditions should remain on the warm
and humid with highs in the low 90s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 819 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Drier air along and north of I-4 will limit storm chances and I
have taken VCTS out of TPA, PIE and LAL. However the further south
you go the higher the storm chances are. VCTS will be around SW
FLorida through the late afternoon and evening hours. Models are
also showing some showers developing along the front overnight and
pushing on the coast so added VCSH for some sites overnight. Winds
will be mainly out of the north with a seabreeze along the coast
in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A stalled front remains across south and central gulf waters.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers and storms
will be possible through the week. Light winds around 10 knots or
less and seas 2 feet or less will prevail outside of thunderstorms
through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Multiple disturbances will pull higher moisture across fire districts
through the period. Northeasterly prevail today and become east to
southeasterly towards the end of the week. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms could develop with the highest chances expected
south of the I-4 corridor. Minimum RH values remain well above
critical levels as daily rain chances continue during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  91  78 /  30  20  50  20
FMY  91  76  89  76 /  60  50  70  50
GIF  92  75  92  75 /  40  20  60  10
SRQ  90  75  89  75 /  30  40  60  30
BKV  91  72  91  72 /  20  10  40  10
SPG  88  77  88  77 /  30  30  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close