496
FXUS62 KTBW 110030
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
730 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 730 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

-  Record breaking cold temperatures expected tonight/Tuesday
   morning and possibly some record low maximums on Tuesday.

-  Marine hazards will continue through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Cold advection will continue across the region overnight with just
some high clouds streaming overhead as the lower level flow shifts
to more northerly keeping the cold air stratocumulus over the
coastal waters offshore. Record breaking cold is expected in many
areas Tuesday morning as temperatures drop into the upper 20s far
north to mid 40s along the southwest coast. The cool and breezy
weather will continue under mostly sunny skies Tuesday with the
potential for some new record low maximum temperatures as readings
only climb into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds diminish
Tuesday night setting us up for decent radiational cooling which
will allow temperatures to once again dip into the 30s and 40s
with another night of freezing temperatures possible across the
Nature Coast. Also, thanks to the light winds, some frost will be
possible across much of the Nature Coast, and cannot rule out
frost on cars and roof tops further south over inland areas to
around the I-4 corridor based on the current forecast. Overall,
the forecast is on track with no changes needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail with northwest winds 10 to 15 knots
with some higher gusts shifting to more north to northeast later
tonight through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

A strong cold front pushed through overnight bringing with it
record breaking cold air. Temperatures behind the front have
either stayed steady or already started to drop this afternoon.
Most of us will be seeing record cold temperatures for tomorrow
morning with the Nature Coast falling to or below freezing. The
rest of West Central Florida away from the coast will be down into
the 30`s. On top of that we will see gusty winds in the morning
dropping feels like temperatures to the mid 20`s to mid 30`s. We
have a Cold Weather Advisory for the whole CWA tomorrow morning
due to low wind chills. We could also be looking at breaking low
max temperatures on Tuesday with highs staying in the 50`s for a
lot of us.

We will see one more cold morning on Wednesday with interior
locations and the Nature Coast still getting into the 30`s. After
the cold morning on Wednesday strong high pressure will settle in
and the rest of our work week and weekend will see a slow warming
trend. By the weekend highs will return to the 80`s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Strong northerly winds will make for hazardous boating conditions
for the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
through Tuesday afternoon with winds around 20 to 25 knots and
gust up to 30 knots. Winds will slowly diminish through the
afternoon and evening on Tuesday. For the rest of our work week
winds will remain out of the north and northeast at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

A strong cold front pushed through overnight which has quickly
dried us out. Our main fire weather concern will be on Tuesday.
RHs by mid-afternoon will be in the mid 20`s however winds will
be starting to diminish. Even with the winds dying down we will
still see borderline Red Flag conditions Tuesday afternoon. We
will remain dry for the rest of the work week, but winds will be
much lighter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  39  60  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  42  61  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  37  58  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  40  61  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  31  58  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  43  59  50  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn