428
FXUS62 KTBW 301223
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
823 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

No appreciable change from previous forecast cycle reasoning as
an unsettled weather pattern developing over the area by Sunday
will favor scattered to numerous showers and storms for most of
the peninsula. Longwave troughing over the E CONUS with embedded
shortwave impulses propagating through the flow coupled with a
lingering surface boundary over the state will favor ample
moisture and instability overspreading the area over the weekend
through early next week. Higher rain chances today will be limited
to the northern Nature Coast and interior W FL before expanding
to the remainder of the peninsula on Sunday, persisting through
the early week period before moderating a bit drier mid to late
week. Temps will likely be limited by expected cloud cover and
showers/storms, with highs today in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
followed by highs in the mid and upper 80s to around 90 degrees
thereafter. Some instances of flooding in urban, low lying and
poor drainage locations will be possible due to excessive
rainfall and runoff, and Marginal Risk threat areas have been
highlighted by WPC, across the Nature Coast and far interior
today, and the remainder of W FL for Sunday through mid week as
the unsettled pattern persists.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 821 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Southwesterly flow will keep most of the storm activity away from
the west coast today. However there will be small window for most
coastal sites to see storms which was highlighted with a VCTS.
Better chance of storms in SW Florida through the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will generally stay below 10 knots with VFR
conditions outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Unsettled pattern takes shape across the waters over the weekend
and into next week as a frontal boundary sinks south. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible at nearly
any time beginning later today, with locally hazardous winds and
seas in the vicinity. Outside of thunderstorms, winds should
generally remain below 15 knots with seas around 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Minimal fire weather concerns through the period as increasing
moisture and rain chances this weekend into next week associated
with a weak frontal boundary settling across the area bring
additional moisture and instability into the area. Scattered to
numerous storms will be possible each day, with the greatest
potential near the coast generally in the morning to early
afternoon, and higher chances inland during the afternoon and
evening across the interior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  78  89  77 /  30  30  80  40
FMY  92  76  91  76 /  60  30  80  40
GIF  92  75  91  74 /  50  30  80  30
SRQ  90  76  89  74 /  40  40  80  50
BKV  89  71  88  72 /  50  30  80  30
SPG  88  77  87  77 /  30  40  80  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana