057
FXXX10 KWNP 091231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 09-Feb 11 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 09-Feb 11 2026

             Feb 09       Feb 10       Feb 11
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       1.33         2.67         1.67
06-09UT       1.67         2.67         1.67
09-12UT       1.33         1.67         1.00
12-15UT       2.00         1.67         1.33
15-18UT       2.67         0.67         1.33
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         1.00
21-00UT       3.67         2.00         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 09-Feb 11 2026

              Feb 09  Feb 10  Feb 11
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels over 09-11 Feb due to the eruptive potential and
location of Region 4366.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 09 2026 0227 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 09-Feb 11 2026

              Feb 09        Feb 10        Feb 11
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a
chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater) over 09-11 Feb,
primarily due to the eruptive potential of Region 4366.