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FXXX10 KWNP 031231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Oct 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 03-Oct 05 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 03-Oct 05 2025

             Oct 03       Oct 04       Oct 05
00-03UT       4.33         4.33         3.67
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    4.00         3.67
06-09UT       5.00 (G1)    3.33         3.33
09-12UT       4.33         3.00         3.00
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         3.00
15-18UT       3.67         3.00         3.00
18-21UT       3.33         2.67         3.33
21-00UT       3.33         2.67         3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected 03 Oct
due to sustained CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 03-Oct 05 2025

              Oct 03  Oct 04  Oct 05
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 03 2025 0523 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 03-Oct 05 2025

              Oct 03        Oct 04        Oct 05
R1-R2           55%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are likely on 03 Oct
and decreasing slightly thereafter.