375
FXXX10 KWNP 061231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 06-Jul 08 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 06-Jul 08 2026

             Jul 06       Jul 07       Jul 08
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         1.33
03-06UT       2.00         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       1.67         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       1.33         1.67         1.67
12-15UT       2.00         1.67         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       2.00         1.33         1.67
21-00UT       2.00         1.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 06-Jul 08 2026

              Jul 06  Jul 07  Jul 08
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event (S1-Minor) on 06-07 Jul due to the recent and potential flare
activity of Regions 4478, 4479, and 4482.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 05 2026 1757 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 06-Jul 08 2026

              Jul 06        Jul 07        Jul 08
R1-R2           75%           55%           20%
R3 or greater   20%           10%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 06 Jul. As
Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by 07 Jul, activity is
expected to decrease. However, moderate levels are likely to persist
until these regions rotate another day beyond the limb. Activity should
decrease to a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels on 08 Jul
as these regions complete their transit of the limb.