305
FXUS63 KTOP 212325
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with above-normal temperatures through the rest of the week

- Next chance of rain comes Sunday night into Monday, followed
  by cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Mid-level ridging is building into the Central and Southern Plains
this afternoon ahead of the closed upper low that remains parked off
the California coast. The shortwave that brought isolated showers to
the area this morning has pushed southeast, leaving dry, sunny, and
warm conditions in its wake with temperatures topping out in the
70s. Light winds and temperatures approaching crossover thresholds
could yield patchy fog overnight, although guidance shows some cloud
cover overhead and modest winds just above the surface which could
preclude development. Any fog is likely to be confined to low-lying
areas and would mix out quickly after sunrise. The mid-level ridge
moves overhead Thursday into Saturday, keeping dry and unseasonably
warm conditions in place with highs around 80 degrees.

A slower ejection of the western trough continues to be the theme
among guidance; it appears likely that the trough will remain far
enough west to keep the surface front northwest of the area for
Sunday, creating another dry and warm day. The southern stream
energy finally ejects Sunday night into Monday bringing the next
chance for showers and storms to the area. Guidance varies in speed
of the wave and precipitation chances linger into Tuesday before the
wave pushes east and the cold front makes it through the area. Still
seeing large spreads (15 degrees between NBM 25th-75th percentiles)
in potential high temperatures Monday into the middle of next week,
but temperatures are favored to cool back near climatological norms
for late October.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

No significant changes to the going forecast. Still could have
shallow fog mainly at the KTOP terminal overnight as the low level
inversion steepens. Winds may remain strong enough within a few
hundred feet of the surface so slight mixing of dry air aloft would
likely keep any fog to a limited depth. Still too low confidence to
mention fog in the TAF for the 00Z forecast. Also, can`t rule out an
isolated high-based shower in the morning near KMHK but again,
confidence is too low to mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Drake