214
FXUS63 KTOP 192252
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
552 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with near record highs forecast through Saturday.

- Critical fire conditions this weekend.

- A cold front will move through Sunday morning, leading to
  cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue through
Saturday. Record high temperatures are growing more likely
Saturday as an upper-level ridge builds into the Plains. See the
Climate section below. Saturday, at the surface a trough will
develop to our northwest and the pressure gradient will steepen
as a result. This will lead to breezy, warm and dry conditions.
All ingredients for a dangerous fire day. See the Fire Weather
section below for more details on the fire threat. A cold front
will swing through Sunday morning, bringing much cooler
temperatures (highs in the 60s and 70s) and breezy northerly
wind. A cool day is expected Monday in the wake of the cold
front. A rebound to warmer temperatures is favored for the
middle of next week. No precipitation is currently forecast for
the next two weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR TAFs will continue at all sites through the period. Winds
veer towards the north tomorrow afternoon behind a weak frontal
boundary, but should stay below 10 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Updated at 230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Saturday and Sunday.

Relative humidity continues to fall each progressive day as we
see warmer and temperatures and no additional precipitation.
Humidity could bottom out around 10 percent Saturday afternoon
with record high temperatures in the low to mid 90s possible.
Sunday, a cold front will swing through and cooler temperatures
will lead to slightly higher humidity, but still low enough for
critical fire conditions, generally in the low 20 to low 30
percent range. Wind speeds have been the main factor keeping us
from experiencing more critical fire conditions so far this
week, but that appears to change come Saturday. Southwesterly
wind will increase Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front
with sustained wind speeds around 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph.
Wind will shift out of the north behind the cold front Sunday
morning and increase to around 20 mph sustained and gusts to 35
mph.

Burning is not advised today or tomorrow and certainly not
Saturday or Sunday. Fire will spread rapidly and be very
difficult to contain this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Record High Temperature for March 20

              Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka          85 (1953)                88
Concordia       83 (1916, 1934, 2011)    86


Record High Temperature for March 21

              Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka          91 (1907, 1916)          92
Concordia       97 (1907)                92


Record Highest Minimum Temperature for March 20

              Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka          56 (2012)                52
Concordia       50 (1894, 1935, 2011)    52


Record Highest Minimum Temperature for March 22

              Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka          65 (1907)                61
Concordia       56 (1935, 1936)          55

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Griesemer
FIRE WEATHER...Jones
CLIMATE...Jones