628
FXUS63 KTOP 301856
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
156 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory issued today and tomorrow, except for counties along
  the Nebraska border. Temperatures around 100, heat indices around
  105.

- Staying mostly dry through the week. A few low chances for
showers, mainly towards the Nebraska border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Another hot afternoon across the area, with an upper high sitting to
our south over Oklahoma. A few showers are still lingering just
northwest of Republic County, keeping a few clouds around there, but
elsewhere it is just hot and windy. Dewpoints are running a degree
or two yesterday`s values, and temperatures several degrees above.
This should take temperatures around or above 100 with another hour
or two of heating. As most places saw heat index values in the 102
to 105 range yesterday, more confident that most places will see
heat indices around or above 105 today. So have gone ahead and
issued a Heat Advisory for the entire area today and tomorrow, with
the exception of counties along the Nebraska border where cloud
cover may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. Tuesday through
the rest of the week, the upper high moves a bit farther east but
stays the dominant feature across eastern KS. Confidence is high in
continued high temperatures in the upper 90s through Friday, with
heat indices around or above 100 each day. So may an extension of
the Heat Advisory, particularly if dewpoints can creep up a few
degrees by mid-week. As mentioned yesterday, persistent southerly
winds will be a double-edged sword, slightly improving the feel of
the air but also not allowing temperatures to fall as much
overnight. Low temperatures will continue to be in the upper 70s
each day.

Aside from the heat, the only thing to watch over the next week will
be some very low rain chances, mainly over far north-central KS.
Similar to this morning, a weak boundary will stretch from northwest
Kansas into south-central Nebraska tonight. As the nocturnal LLJ
restrengthens, a few more showers and weak thunderstorms should
develop to our west near the boundary. These may move into Republic
County and nearby areas for a few hours tomorrow morning. While the
boundary should move off a bit to the northwest Tuesday and
Wednesday, by Thursday and Friday mornings it may move back close
enough to allow for some more isolated AM convection. Regardless,
expecting any rainfall that does occur through the week to stay very
light, and mainly confined to the Nebraska border.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions with persistent southerly winds will
continue through the period. Winds will be around 15 kts with gusts
to around 25 kts through the afternoon before weakening to around 10
kts overnight. However similar to last night, we should keep enough
winds around overnight with a mixed boundary layer to preclude any
LLWS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

August 31    Topeka     77, set in 1912 and 1947   79
             Concordia  81, set in 1947            77


September 1  Topeka     81, set in 2011            78
             Concordia  80, set in 1913            77


September 2  Topeka     80, set in 2011            79
             Concordia  79, set in 1929            78


September 3  Topeka     77, set in 1939            78
             Concordia  80, set in 1947            78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese