383
FXUS63 KTOP 040414
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1014 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry conditions and above average temperatures continue this
 week.

-A strong cold front could bring much cooler conditions later
 this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Seasonable conditions have been observed across the region this
afternoon with temps in the 60s, light winds and clear skies. Cirrus
clouds associated with a mid-level shortwave trough will increase
from the west later today as that wave makes its way across CO and
over NE. Surface high pressure centered just east of the forecast
area will continue eastward tonight as our winds will increase
out of the south. Cloud cover and south winds will keep
temperature a bit more elevated tonight with lows in the 40s.
Gusty winds aloft will begin to mix down Tuesday morning. Have
bumped up high temperatures tomorrow to near the 90th percentile
of guidance given a strong WAA pattern and warming at 850mb.
That puts forecast highs in the mid 70s.

A cold front will move through northeastern KS Tuesday night. A
slightly cooler air mass moves in behind that boundary,
accompanied by another surface ridge axis. The pattern will
repeat itself with Wednesday similar to today and then a little
windier and warmer on Thursday as south winds return. The next
in a series of fronts will move through Thursday night when a
more amplified trough axis develops aloft. However, there will
still not be much difference in conditions with highs in the 60s
under sunny skies Friday. The main question is how cold it
might get late next weekend when a deeper trough axis and large
surface ridge drops in from Canada. Long range models still show
a large amount of spread on temperatures for that timeframe,
but thinking is that conditions could be quite a bit cooler into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1014 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Not a lot of change to the prev forecast. Concerns remain for
some wind shear at TOP and MHK with a decoupled boundary layer
and easterly low level winds while a southwest low level jet
increases to around 40KT. Better mixing is forecast at FOE which
is not in the river valley. So will keep wind shear out for now.
High clouds should inhibit ground fog formation at TOP Tuesday
morning. Otherwise a dry airmass should keep VFR conditions in
place.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Wolters