743
FXUS63 KTOP 081053
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
453 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are small chances (10-30%) for light rain accumulations today
  and tonight.

- Precipitation is forecast to general end before temps get cold
  enough for light snow, but some flurries across northeast KS cannot
  be ruled out.

- Much colder temperatures on Sunday and Monday should be short lived
  and temperatures are expected to quickly rebound next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

08Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the Hudson Bay with
a broad cyclonic pattern over the central and eastern U.S. One
shortwave was noted over the northern plains digging southeast as a
second shortwave rotated around the west side of the upper low.
Surface obs placed an area of low pressure over south central NEB
with a cold front pushing south along the high plains.

There is not a lot of change to the prev forecast with 00Z guidance
showing a consistent picture over the next 36 hrs. The shortwave
over the northern plains should bring a cold front through the area
through midday with most of the guidance keeping QPF north of the
surface low and the forecast area. Still will have some small POPs
across northeast KS for the potential for some light rain
accumulations. Then this evening low level lapse rates are progged
to remain nearly dry adiabatic. The weak instability within a
stratocu deck could wring out some light precip in the form of
isolated showers. In general forecast sounding show a modest
response in vertical motion to the wave passing overhead, and the
chances for ice in the cloud remains low as temps generally remain
at or above -10C. The NBM has also caught onto to this with lower
probabilities for snow tonight. So the overall impact from any
isolated shower should be minimal, especially as the precip should
be pushing out of the area ahead of temps falling below freezing.
Still looks like there will be gusty winds behind the front this
afternoon and the pressure gradient looks to remain strong enough to
keep breezy conditions going for tonight and into Sunday. This looks
to lower apparent temps into the teens Sunday morning. Continued
cold and dry air advection Sunday morning is expected to clear out
the clouds with decent insolation by midday. Still with continued
cold air advection afternoon temps look to remain in the 30s for
most areas.

Dry weather is forecast to persist for next week as northwest flow
with limited moisture sets up. Another shortwave looks to pass north
of the forecast area Tuesday within the northwest flow before upper
level ridging builds into the Great Plains by the end of the week.
This should allow for temps to quickly rebound back into the 60s.
With the upper ridge amplifying to the west late next week, we may
see enough low level warm air advection to push highs into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 453 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Probabilities for precip at the terminals remain to low to include in
the forecast with the better saturation expected to be north of the
state line. Though a brief shower with some -RA of --RA will not be
impossible through the late evening. Northwest winds will become
strong behind the front and persist through tonight. A stratocu deck
is expected to move in with the cold air late tonight with MVFR CIGS
forecast. Confidence is reasonably good so will include the CIGS
between 2 and 3 KFT for the last several hours of the forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Northwest winds are expected to gust to around 35 mph behind a cold
front that moves southeast today. With fuels continuing to cure,
these winds are forecast to create high rangeland fire danger for
most areas this afternoon. Minimum RH values of 35 percent or better
are expected to keep the fire danger from being worse. Similar
conditions with gusty north winds and dry air are forecast to create
high rangeland fire danger for Sunday as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters