830
FXUS63 KTOP 242330
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog redevelops tonight into Christmas morning lingering
until the late morning hours.

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 9 PM tonight through
noon Thursday.

- Warm Friday and Saturday before a cold front brings back
  winter- like air from the north Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Another foggy start to the day today as more dense fog was noted
across much of eastern Kansas. This fog has since lifted to low
stratus across northern Kansas with clearing skies along and south
of I-70 as a weak pressure trough is beginning to stall across the
area. Synoptic flow remains relatively unchanged with southwest flow
overspreading the southern and central Plains ahead of the
atmospheric river event in California and a Bermuda High settled
over the TX/LA area. Cloud cover and fog helped to keep us a touch
cooler than previous forecasts had noted, but with the clearing
clouds along and south of I-70, and WAA, expect these areas to reach
the upper 60s and some low 70s. North of I-70 where stratus has
lingered longer, highs will only top out in the upper 50s and low
60s.

By this evening, dense fog is expected to redevelop along and north
of the pressure trough that remains stalled across east-central
Kansas. As the overnight hours progress, the trough is expected to
sink south a bit towards the I-35 corridor, ushering fog to spread
south to meet it. Current thinking is that with minimal warming
across northern Kansas this afternoon, Td/T spread will remain very
small. Fog will first redevelop across northeastern Kansas,
spreading west and south late this evening and expanding to most of
the area by sunrise Christmas morning. With low level profiles again
showing deep saturation, expect dense fog to reduce visibilities to
1/4 mi or less again. Some drizzle may accompany the fog in far east-
central Kansas after 2 AM, but better forcing in the saturation
layer remains east. HREF probabilities of 50+% for visibilities
less than 0.5 miles increased confidence enough to put out
another Dense Fog Advisory for most of the area (excluding
Coffey and Anderson counties) from 9 PM tonight though 12 PM
Thursday. This may need to be expanded into the Coffey and
Anderson counties later tonight if confidence in widespread fog
potential increases that far south and east. It may be more
patchy in nature than widespread and was main reason for the
choice to exclude them.

Fog burns off by 10a-12p Christmas day with most mixing to low
stratus. There may be some scattering out of the stratus deck across
southern portions of the area, but CAMs are not confident in losing
the cloud coverage. High temperatures Thursday will again be largely
impacted by if cloud cover can scatter out. If stratus holds, much
cooler high temperatures will be realized, topping out in the upper
50s and low 60s. Went slightly optimistic in Highs tomorrow
with mid 50s north transitioning to mid/upper 60s southeast.
That said, SREF probabilities of broken low cloud cover
is at 80%. If these trends persist, expect the lower end of
high temperatures Christmas day and not the near record
temperatures that was anticipated earlier in the week.

By Thursday into Friday, winds shift to the west and bring in a
drier airmass. This should stave off most fog concerns Friday
morning. Cannot rule out some patchy fog at this point, but
confidence is not high at this point. By Friday and Saturday
afternoon, drier air, mostly clear skies, diurnal mixing and mid-
level ridging overhead will promote temperatures in the mid to upper
60s - possibly some low 70s across east-central KS. The warmth comes
to an abrupt stop by Saturday night into Sunday morning as Canadian
low sweeps in from the northwest pushing an arctic front through the
area. There may be some precipitation chances become realized across
east-central KS Sunday morning where moisture is richer, but chances
remain low (<25%). Strong CAA behind the front will limit much
warming Sunday afternoon with highs topping out in the 40s and gusty
northwest winds up to 35 mph. The cold persists into early next week
with low temperatures Monday and Tuesday getting down into the
teens! There is a subtle warming trend by mid week, but NBM 25th-
75th temperature spreads still remain around 10-15 degrees this far
out, so overall confidence is low at this time. That said, any
widespread precipitation chances look to remain near zero in the
next week outside Sunday`s chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Dense Fog will develop a few hours after sunset at all
terminals. Expect visibilities to drop down or below 1/4 SM and
Vertical Visibility of a few hundred feet. The dense fog will
last into the late morning hours of Thursday (Christmas).
Visibilities will improve up to 6 sm through the early and mid
afternoon hours but the fog should lift to MVFR stratus.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 211 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

                 Record                   Forecast      Normal

Dec 25 High      Topeka      68 (1922, 2016)  62          41
                 Concordia   64 (1950, 2016)  55          39

Dec 26 High      Topeka      67 (2008)        66          41
                 Concordia   64 (1959, 2008)  68          39

Dec 27 High      Topeka      71 (1946)        69          41
                 Concordia   63 (1928, 1976)  63          39

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday
for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Gargan
CLIMATE...Griesemer