Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 072240

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
540 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

A diffuse boundary located just along and southwest of the
Missouri river should serve as a focus for at least scattered
t-storm activity this afternoon into this evening. Strong gusty
winds appear to be the main hazard with any storms that can form
given the high T/Td spread and DCAPE. Diurnal trends should lead
to a decrease in coverage after sunset with some signal of another
area of showers and t-storms along a southward moving wave after
midnight. As a result we will keep low chcs for precip overnight
across the east. Expect another round of scattered t-storms
Thursday afternoon mainly across the west and central areas closer
to the diffuse boundary which should also wane with sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Any precip coverage should decrease Thursday night with better
forcing focused across southwest Kansas so look for lower precip
chcs then. The atmosphere will remain uncapped to afternoon
heating on Friday so scattered storms may also re-develop across
the area during the afternoon.

By Friday night into Saturday...there is a signal for a MCS across
southern KS closer to the nose of the LLJ with lower chcs for
precip across northeast KS. A weak 500mb wave will move across the
area on Saturday and this along with low level boundaries could
spark more afternoon thunderstorms especially into Saturday night
as a front and weak wave/low pressure moves along the boundary so
highest rain chances should occur later Saturday into Saturday
night and early Sunday. Dry weather may occur by next Monday as a
front could sag into OK before moving back north as a warm front
on Tuesday. Tuesday remains a potential severe weather day but
again remains too far out for any more detailed information at
this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Diurnally driven CU and SHRA have been diminishing over the last
couple hours. This should lead to a quiet evening with mostly
clear skies. Models continue to bring a shortwave south with the
potential for convection moving along the MO river valley after
06Z. The majority of CAMs keep this activity to the east of TOP
and FOE with HREF probabilities of TS at the terminals around 20
percent. Because of this will keep the forecast dry for now and
monitor trends for storms possibly affecting the terminals around
12Z. Increasing mid clouds overnight are expected to limit the
chances for ground fog formation.




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