752
FXUS63 KTOP 281109
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
609 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger this afternoon along and northwest of an
  Abilene to Hiawatha line.

- Storm chances increase Saturday afternoon and evening, including
  the potential for some severe storms.

- Cooler air moves in for Sunday and Monday before warming up
  again towards the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this morning with
a southern stream wave over Texas and a longwave trough off the
western US coast. A 996mb surface low centered over South Dakota has
kept a tight pressure gradient across the forecast area overnight,
keeping winds elevated and temperatures in the 60s. This surface low
slides east through the day today as another low pressure deepens
over eastern Colorado. As a result, winds will remain gusty through
the day with gusts of 30-40 MPH expected. Temperatures will rise
well-above normal again given strong WAA with highs reaching
the mid 70s to mid 80s. Relative humidity values fall into the 30-
40% range across portions of north central Kansas and along the
KS/NE stateline. These humidity values combined with the gusty winds
and dry fuels will lead to a few hours of very high fire danger, but
not expecting a big fire weather day.

On Saturday, the western trough ejects across the Plains in several
pieces. The first piece ejects northeast into western Kansas and western
Nebraska Saturday morning, although most of the associated
precipitation with this wave remains north of the local area.
This wave and the next negatively-tilted shortwave that
approaches Saturday afternoon and evening will shunt the surface
low and attendant cold front through the area. While a stout
CAP will preclude convective initiation through much of the day,
increased ascent with the approaching wave and cold front along
with decreasing CIN will support thunderstorm development some
time during the late afternoon into the evening. Guidance
continues to differ on the speed of the surface low and cold
front, leading to uncertainty in location of convective
initiation, areal coverage that will be impacted, and exact
timing. The majority of guidance shows the CAP eroding during
the late afternoon/early evening timeframe (5-8PM), allowing
storms to develop. Initially isolated storms have the potential
to be supercellular given 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30-35kts
of effective shear. With the degree of large- scale forcing that
is anticipated, the window for isolated supercells may be
limited to a few hours before storms congeal into a linear mode
as they push east-southeast across the area. Hodographs are
largely straight during the late afternoon into the early
evening, which favors large hail as the dominant hazard type
along with damaging wind gusts. Low-level winds begin to veer
during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, but storms
may already be in a linear mode at this point, leading to more
of a straight- line wind threat over tornadoes. Nonetheless,
there is a low chance for a spin-up within any supercells that
remain into the evening and along the leading edge of any linear
complex of storms. The severe threat wanes as the cold front
pushes southeast through the area into the early hours of
Sunday.

Showers and a few thunderstorms may linger through Sunday morning
before conditions dry out during the afternoon. Colder air builds in
behind the front with highs in the 50s on Sunday and Monday.
Southerly flow quickly returns on Tuesday with gusty south winds
bumping temperatures back into the 60s. A potent shortwave ejects
across the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing another
chance for showers and storms to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

MVFR stratus is building towards terminals from the south and
will impact KMHK within the next hour. The eastern edge of the
stratus will be close to KTOP/KFOE, so have went with a TEMPO
group, although MVFR cigs could prevail. Guidance is not handling
this stratus well which leads to lower confidence in when stratus
scatters out or lifts to VFR. MVFR cigs could linger through the
morning hours. Expect gusty south-southwest wind through the period
with additional MVFR cigs appearing likely Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

The pressure gradient remains strong across the area today with
sustained south-southwest winds of 20-25 MPH and gusts of 30-40 MPH.
Relative humidity values fall to 30-40% across portions of north
central Kansas and along the KS/NE border. This combination of lower
relative humidity and gusty winds will lead to a few hours of very
high fire danger this afternoon for areas along and northwest of an
Abilene to Hiawatha line.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Record Maximum Low Temperature for March 28:

              Forecast        Record (Year)
Topeka           60             58 (1981)
Concordia        61             55 (1986)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan