033
FXUS63 KTOP 262338
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat ramps up next week with temperatures and heat indices over
  100 degrees.

- Daily chances for thunderstorms beginning Saturday, but
  predictability on coverage and location remain low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged this afternoon with
an upper ridge extending from the southwest US into the northern and
central Plains and an area of cutoff energy across the southern
Plains. Little change in the airmass has led to a very similar day
to yesterday with temperatures warming into the 90s area-wide. As
has been observed the past several days, a stray shower or storm
could develop in the uncapped and unstable airmass this afternoon,
but chances remain below 15%.

The aforementioned southern Plains energy lifts north tonight into
Saturday, bringing increased cloud cover to eastern Kansas along
with the chance for some showers and storms Saturday afternoon. The
main precipitation axis will be east of the area, but ascent from
the passing wave and decreasing CIN through the day will allow for
scattered showers and storms to develop. Weak shear should limit the
intensity of storms and any activity is expected to wane with
sunset. Highs Saturday will be a few degrees lower than today
especially for areas that have cloud cover and showers/storms.

Another shortwave moves in from the west Sunday morning and could
generate additional showers and storms. CAMs are in decent agreement
with this precipitation making into north central Kansas, so slight
chance PoPs have been added. Flow across the central Plains becomes
quasi-zonal Sunday into the middle of the week as the ridge builds
east over the southern Plains. Southerly WAA will bump temperatures
back into the 90s with heat indices across north central Kansas in
the 100-104 degree range Sunday afternoon. A perturbation along the
northern fringe of the ridge will eject east Sunday evening-night
and increase thunderstorm chances. While details in location and
coverage of storms remain unknown, the environment will feature 1000-
2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and effective shear around 30kts which will
support some strong to severe storms. Stay tuned as details will
become clearer as the event approaches.

Heat concerns rise Monday into the middle of the week as 850mb
temperatures warm to 24-28 degrees C, boosting highs to near or
above 100 degrees each day. Dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s will
create heat index values of 104-110 degrees each afternoon. Waves of
energy ride the ridge through this timeframe and bring at least
small chances for showers and storms as they pass. Guidance shows
the timing of these waves to be mainly during the overnight hours
which would allow temperatures to recover from any cloud cover or
precipitation during the day. While a change in the timing of
precipitation could lead to lower daytime highs, confidence remains
high in a several day period of dangerous heat from Monday through
at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR prevails. Can`t rule out an isolated pop-up shower or brief
thunderstorm Saturday afternoon mainly at the Topeka sites, but
even so, higher probabilities are further east into MO, so have
opted to leave mention out of TAFs for now. There should at
least be some increase in mid to high clouds through the day
with a passing upper-level disturbance. Southerly winds increase
somewhat as well, though MHK is more likely to pick up above 10
kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Picha