Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 210752
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
252 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

07Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low just off the CA
coast with an upper ridge axis along the southern and central
Rockies. A shortwave was moving across central Canada towards the
upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the
mid MS river valley while a surface trough developed in the lee of
the central Rockies.

For today and tonight, models are in consensus that moisture
advection through the day will remain rather modest and that the
airmass will remain relatively dry. With the upper ridge axis to the
west, any dynamic forcing appears to be pretty subtle from the
latest model solutions. So dry weather is anticipated through
tonight. As the surface ridge continues to move east today, winds
should become more southerly and bring some warm air back into the
region. So think highs will be similar to yesterday or a couple
degrees warmer given the southerly winds and have gone with the
warmest guidance with readings in the mid 60s and around 70 degrees.
The one thing that may hamper the warm up is an increase in high
clouds during the afternoon which could dampen solar insolation. The
south and southwest winds should persist through the night with
dewpoints holding in the lower 40s. So relatively mild lows in the
mid 40s are forecast for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Transitioning into the extended period, the primary takeaways
continue to reside with predominately dry conditions with cooler
than normal temperatures.

For Monday afternoon and evening, model solutions agree with a
shortwave trough diving southeastward across the Great Lakes
region, shunting a weak cold front through the CWA. Given the lack
of a substantial influx of moisture, expect only a wind shift to
accompany the frontal passage. Monday afternoon is likely to be
the warmest day next week with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A
midlevel ridge axis will traverse the central US throughout the
day Tuesday. An attendant surface ridge axis will overspread the
central and northern Plains, ushering in an additional period of
CAA with temperatures in the 50s by Wednesday. Rain chances are
continuing to increase for Wednesday/Wednesday night as remnants
of the cutoff midlevel low off the coast of CA eject into the
central Plains. Model solutions are in decent agreement with the
trough axis lifting from southwest KS into northeast KS. As a
result the best rain chances will likely exist across north-
central KS and northeast KS.

By weeks end, a drastic amplification of the western ridge and
eastern is trough is progged by solutions, resulting in northerly
to northwesterly midlevel flow across the area. Weak perturbations
within the flow could result in sprinkles and/or light rain
showers Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak surface front
traverses the CWA -- again light amounts expected, if any. The
ridge axis is progged to overspread the central US throughout next
weekend as a trough axis comes ashore across the Pacific
northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light winds
overnight will veer from the south-southwest by 18Z. MHK may see
some gusts up to 20 knots.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Heller



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