Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 021112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
512 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

Early this morning lee side trough was deepening while surface high
was moving off to the east. Surface winds have become southerly
across north central Kansas at 08Z. Aloft a mid level low was
located over Oklahoma while the next mid level low was moving across
the eastern Pacific.

For today the pressure gradient will increase resulting in southwest
winds of 12-17 mph with gusts near 25 mph at times this afternoon.
Forecast soundings show good mixing across the area with
temperatures warming in the low to mid 60s for this afternoon. Low
afternoon relative humidity around 20 percent will keep elevated
fire danger likely this afternoon for much of the area. Tonight,
temperatures drop off into the 30s, while a weak surface trough
moves into northern Kansas.

Mild temperatures continue into Thursday as a ridge builds into the
Plains as the mid level trough moves east into the Rockies. This
feature moves out into the southern Plains Thursday night and Friday
bringing a chance of rain back to parts of central into southeast
Kansas. Moisture transport increases ahead of the system with
precipital water values increasing to around an inch across central
and eastern Kansas Thursday night. Mild temperatures in the 60s are
expected for the weekend and into early next week as another ridge
builds into the Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the period. The main thing
this forecast is the wind. Winds will increase from the southwest
around 14 kts with gusts to 22 kts expected by 17Z. Winds are
forecast to decrease to around 8 kts from the south after 01Z.


Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

Elevated fire weather is expected across much of the area this
afternoon as relative humidity drops into the 17 to 25 percent
range. Winds increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph.
1 hour and 10 hour fuels are dry, but remain above critical status
today. Winds are the limiting factors this afternoon and will keep
the rangeland fire danger very high for much of the area. Relative
humidity will begin to recover from late afternoon into the early
evening hours and winds will decrease as well, lowering the fire
danger. Fuels will burn efficiently and any fire could spread




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