331
FXUS63 KTOP 152330
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures return to well above normal early this week with some
  record warmth possible.

- Elevated fire danger is expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Low precipitation chances return late this week alongside near
  normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The local area sits between two upper lows early this afternoon, one
of which is moving across the Deep South, and the other is spinning
off the West Coast. This leaves an upper ridge over the central and
southern Rockies and Plains. At the surface, high pressure sits over
Kansas into OK/TX while a low is centered over the Dakotas. Cloud
cover has scattered out across the majority of the area, leaving
mostly sunny skies for the rest of the daytime hours. This should
help most places to reach the low 60s with a couple hours left
before peak heating.

Heading into Monday, the sfc high pushes east and a lee trough
begins to develop in response to embedded perturbations being
ejected out ahead of the main upper trough. This should help
southerly winds to gradually increase overnight with a tightening
pressure gradient, along with winds a few hundred feet above the
surface helping to keep the BL somewhat mixed. Morning lows look
warm as a result of temperatures holding through the 40s overnight.
Between starting the day warm and WAA continuing through the
afternoon, highs should reach at least the mid to upper 60s. A few
70-degree readings can`t be ruled out. By Tuesday, a more potent
shortwave looks to eject out of the main trough to our west, leading
to lee sfc cyclogenesis and a strengthening wind field. This gives
us our windiest and warmest day of the week, and also begins our
stretch of days with heightened fire danger concerns. (See fire
discussion for further details on this threat.) The thermal axis
overhead points toward all areas reaching the 70s, and although the
current forecast looks just shy of record highs, there looks to be a
better shot at potentially breaking record warm lows.

The first of these shortwaves this week passes east Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. Some guidance is trying to suggest light rain
in far eastern KS, but a lack of moisture leads to low confidence in
this possibility. What is more certain is the drier air mass behind
this first wave, as that has been consistent in the models the last
several days. That keeps the concern for elevated fire danger
despite less wind, especially as temperatures don`t look to cool off
very much, looking similar to Monday in the mid to upper 60s.
That will also contribute to lower RH values.

Models begin to show more variability by Thursday, leading to
greater spread in variables like winds and temperatures and
therefore lowering confidence for the latter portion of the week.
The strength and progression of the next shortwave is in question,
and there are some differences in the track of the associated sfc
low across the region as a result. In any case, a cold front does
look to bring a cooler air mass into the area by the end of the work
week. The timing of its passage Thursday will need to be watched as
the associated wind shift would have an impact on fire weather.
Otherwise, expect temperatures to return to more seasonal values for
the end of the week along with low chances for rain/snow depending
on the tracks of the Thursday system and another on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected. Boundary layer mixing generally increases
through the night and should prevent any BR formation. This
mixing still looks unidirectional with height to also point to
turbulence instead of LLWS. Gusts should become established in
the 15Z-16Z window.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Updated at 237 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Tuesday through Thursday all bring the potential for elevated fire
danger across the area, though there isn`t any particular day where
all of the parameters come together. Because of that, confidence
isn`t high on reaching Red Flag criteria at this time, but these
days will all need to be watched closely.

Tuesday has the wind as guidance favors wind gusts reaching 30-40mph
area-wide. A few gusts to 45mph can`t be ruled out if we get to the
high end of the guidance. The main uncertainty is how far east the
dryline can make it Tuesday afternoon. The current forecast has the
lowest RH values just west of our area, but if the drier air can
push further east, that could bring 20% RH into our far western
zones.

Wednesday looks less windy, but there is a drier air mass with dew
points falling into the 20s and 30s. This leads to a greater
likelihood of RH values as low as 15-25%. With our forecast area
being in between two systems, that would help to keep winds lower,
but there remains plenty of time for details like timing and track
of those systems to change.

The track of Thursday`s system is the most uncertain part of the
equation, leading to less confidence for that day, but even if the
winds and RH don`t line up just right for Red Flag conditions, none
of these three days will be conducive for burning. Depending on how
active Tuesday ends up, each day after that could potentially
amplify the concern. Wednesday`s dry air and Thursday`s wind shifts
could exacerbate any issues that arise before then, so burning
should be avoided during this stretch.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Poage
FIRE WEATHER...Picha