Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 101950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

As of 19Z Monday afternoon zonal midlevel flow was present across
the southern US with a low centered across the northern Great
Lakes region. In addition, a shortwave trough was digging
southward through eastern ID. At the surface, weak surface ridging
extends across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Otherwise, a
cooler-than-normal afternoon was ongoing with temperatures in the
50s area-wide.

Transitioning into tonight and Tuesday, the aforementioned shortwave
trough across ID will eject into the Plains. In addition, the right
entrance region of an 80 kt upper jet will setup across the area.
As a result expect rain chances to gradually increase from
southwest to northeast during the morning hours Tuesday. The
persistent low level dry air advection will likely limit the
northeastward extent of precipitation. As the upper jet progresses
southeast with the arrival of the shortwave trough, rain chances
should come to an end Tuesday night. All-in-all low QPF amounts
are expected with the vast majority of locations receiving less
than 0.10".

The midlevel pattern will transition to northwesterly flow behind
the passage of a longwave trough on Wednesday. A subtle midlevel
speed max within the northwest flow is progged to eject across the
region Friday. This combined with a WAA pattern could yield a few
showers across the forecast area. Furthermore, the WAA pattern
will contribute to temperatures returning to the 70s by Friday

This scenario of weak midlevel perturbations with low level WAA is
likely to continue into the weekend with additional rain and storm
chances throughout the weekend. The active pattern looks to continue
into next week as a midlevel low ejects into the Plains from the
Southwest US.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

VFR conditions will continue through much of the TAF period with
light north to east winds. MVFR CIGS are expected after 15Z
Tuesday with the potential for light showers or sprinkles.




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