622
FXUS63 KTOP 091913
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
213 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Temperatures have warmed to slightly above average and will remain
 there this week.

-Dry weather looks to continue with tropical moisture staying
 east and troughing staying west of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Tranquil conditions continue for the foreseeable future. This
afternoon, a surface ridge remains parked over the Ohio River Valley
while a trough axis stretches from north to south across the High
Plains. In between, skies are mainly clear and south winds are
a bit gusty. Temperatures are a touch warmer than yesterday, in
the mid 80s at 19Z. Without a significant pattern change, these
slightly warmer than average afternoon temperatures can be
expected each day this week, with morning lows staying around 60
degrees.

Midweek, Tropical Storm Francine -- currently gaining strength in
the western Gulf of Mexico -- is expected to make landfall along the
Louisiana coast as a hurricane. While we could use some good
rainfall, the tropical moisture associated with this storm is still
progged to remain east of the area, mainly impacting portions of
southern and eastern Missouri and points east of there. Models show
that system weakening and stalling near the Missouri Bootheel late
in the week. Meanwhile, a large mid-level closed low pressure system
will pivot over the Pacific Northwest and lift northeast into
southern Canada late in the week. The approaching trough axis will
induce lee cyclogenesis and few associated showers/storms across the
High Plains of Nebraska/KS. Mid-level ascent doesn`t look to
occur far enough east to justify increasing POPs for the
forecast area, so will keep conditions dry through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

VFR prevails through the 18Z period. South winds between 10-15
kts this afternoon will decrease after sunset to below 10 kts
at all sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey