Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
407 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Key Points:

- Quiet and warm today, even warmer Thursday

- Much cooler late this week into early next week with some low-end
shower/storm chances

A quieter Wednesday is in store as most rain and storms have pushed
off to the east. CAMs have the remaining showers entirely out of the
CWA by 12Z in time for the morning commute. Current water vapor
imagery (as of 830Z) shows quasi-zonal flow over much of the
northern CONUS with a shortwave noted near the Great Basin region.
At the surface we have a surface low centered in the TX panhandle
with weaker low pressure still nudging into our area ahead of high
pressure over eastern WY and CO. That surface ridge is progged to
pass through the area today, allowing skies to clear with winds
staying light from the north. Highs should reach the low to mid 80s
with plenty of insolation. While a more subtle wave is progged to
eject out of the aforementioned shortwave and traverse across the
state this evening into early Thursday, any storms that develop look
to stay well to our southwest.

Heading into the end of the week, an upper trough is progged to
amplify over the western CONUS and push a cold front into the area
by early Friday. Before that front arrives, however, lee troughing
develops on Thursday with southerly low-level flow bringing strong
WAA into the area. This results in breezy south winds with highs in
the upper 80s to 90s. As the cold front arrives late Thursday into
early Friday, there`s a small chance for a few thunderstorms in far
northeast KS, but the majority of guidance keeps us dry as it pushes
across the area. The GFS appears to be fastest with fropa, bringing
it almost entirely through by Friday morning while the EC/NAM/CMC
are a bit slower with it through the afternoon. Depending on the
speed of the front, we could have some showers and storms in our
southeastern counties Friday afternoon with post-frontal showers
overnight into early Saturday, but at this point no severe weather
is expected. The bigger story will be much cooler temperatures
behind the front with Saturday looking to be the coolest day in the
upcoming week. Highs are forecast in the low 60s, with temperatures
falling to the low 40s by Sunday morning. We gradually warm
thereafter with more normal temps returning by Tuesday, although
this is subject to change as long-term guidance indicates a low-
amplitude trough possibly bringing another chance of showers and
storms during that time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Conditions have remained VFR behind the main line of storms, so
have not gone with any cig/vis restrictions, but will maintain
VCTS until 09/10Z as the main line pushes south and a couple
smaller clusters of storms move south out of NE. From there,
winds look to turn variable until morning and then predominantly
become NW to NE throughout the day, remaining under 10 kt.




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