017
FXUS63 KTOP 161709
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1109 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively cooler today, but above average temperatures continue
until mid to late week, at which point they look closer to seasonal.

- Forecast continues to trend drier for Monday with rain chances
  increasing Wednesday night through Friday (40-70%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Main upper jet goes through British Columbia and Alberta, then
southeastward through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A cut-
off low continues to slowly meander across southern CA with another
trough noted off the British Columbian coast. This flow pattern
places a low-amplitude ridge over the Southern/Central Plains ahead
of the cut-off low. Sfc high pressure just to our north is keeping
tranquil conditions and yesterday`s cold front has brought a
relatively cooler and drier air mass. Td depressions are 5-7 degrees
as of 08Z, so despite light winds and clear skies, am not
anticipating as much patchy fog this morning. If anything, perhaps
the typical low-lying areas could see some brief, shallow fog around
sunrise with continued cooling. Otherwise, today brings highs mainly
in the 60s under sunny skies as the sfc high gradually slides east,
advecting still drier air in as it does so.

Heading into Monday, the aforementioned cut-off low is progged to
evolve into a negatively tilted trough while attempting to merge
into the main westerlies before splitting off again and redeveloping
into a closed low over Nebraska. There seems to be better agreement
among models on tracking the low at this point, with the forecast
positioning the associated sfc low in the CO/NE/KS tri-state area
Monday morning and eventually lifting northeast. This would firmly
place the local area within the warm sector, allowing highs to be a
little warmer than today, possibly reaching 70 in some spots.
Isentropic lift and moisture advection increase through Monday
morning, but the low-level moisture still appears to be quite
shallow. HRRR forecast soundings indicate mainly a stratus deck
around 850mb within the WAA regime with Td depressions near 20
degrees, so it would seem difficult to get much if any precip to
reach the ground, despite a few CAMs trying to suggest light and
spotty reflectivity Monday morning. By the time sfc-level moisture
does improve, the best vertical lift is mostly east of the area. A
few far eastern locations could get lucky with a quick shower in the
evening before that happens, but that`s a low probability scenario
(10-20%) at this point.

The cold front moves through early Tuesday on the back end of the
system, though CAA looks weak with little impact to temperatures.
Highs are still forecast to reach the 60s area-wide. We keep an
active pattern through mid to late week as a series of shortwaves
become more amplified over the southwest CONUS and eject energy into
the Plains. While a fair amount of uncertainty remains on how these
waves will evolve, Wednesday night through Friday continues to be
the focus for the next best rain chances in the area (40-70%).
Thursday in eastern KS in particular appears to be the time/area of
highest confidence at this time as the main vort max approaches.
Models show greater variation by next weekend, as some solutions are
more progressive than others, and this can be seen in the cluster
analysis as well. Generally speaking, there seems to be a little
better confidence in temperatures remaining above average through
Thursday, with larger ranges becoming more apparent by Friday. That
makes sense as temps would largely depend on how long clouds/precip
linger with the late week system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR at terminals as easterly winds sustain around 10 kts during
the afternoon before veering to the southeast below 10 kts this
evening. Low end VFR stratus is becoming more probable aft 10Z
at KMHK and 14Z at KTOP/KFOE as the next wave begins to approach
the region. Duration of the VFR stratus is uncertain with some
models returning clear skies at KMHK by late afternoon Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Prieto