263
FXUS63 KTOP 170538
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1238 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather builds in for the weekend with
  temperatures approaching 90 degrees.

- Severe storms will be possible late Sunday, and again on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

At 19Z, a weak surface boundary was located across east-central KS.
Water vapor imagery shows a mid level trough axis approaching the
Great Lakes region and a mid level cyclonic circulation over New
Mexico. Near and ahead of the surface boundary, instability had
increased to around 1500 J/kg early this afternoon, but shear is
very weak. The boundary will continue to slowly sag southward
today. Some CAMs show isolated storm development south of the
boundary. Given weak shear, weak convergence along the front
and a lack of mid level forcing, have kept POPs in the low
category mainly near and south of I-35 this afternoon. There is
a signal from models for the redevelopment of patchy fog tonight
and early Friday morning with mainly clear skies and light
winds. The mid level low over New Mexico is expected to pass south
of the area tomorrow, so conditions should be dry through the
day.

A storm system traversing the northern CONUS will bring a weak front
into northeastern KS on Saturday. Surface based instability will
build to over 2000 J/kg near and ahead of the boundary during the
afternoon, but shear again looks to be on the weak side. Without
another source of lift, the chance for storms is low. If any storms
manage to develop, however, they will be the pulse variety. The
front then moves northward as a warm front on Sunday as stronger
southerly flow reinforces a warm and humid air mass over the region.
Temperatures look to approach 90 degrees through the weekend and
early next week.

Models show a series of shortwave troughs moving over the central US
within southwesterly flow aloft late this weekend and early next
week. The first could produce rain and a few storms early Sunday,
but the better chances will be north of the forecast area. The
next shortwave moves out over KS Sunday afternoon/evening,
likely triggering thunderstorm development in central KS. Storms
are expected to progress eastward with time. Severe weather
will be possible with this round given the unstable nature of
the air mass in place.

A more amplified system is then forecast to eject out over the
High Plains on Tuesday. A surface low and associated cold front
should move through northeast KS sometime during the day
Tuesday. Timing will have an impact on the potential severity of
thunderstorms. It currently appears that the better chance for
severe weather will be just east of the area during the
afternoon and evening. Model trends will be monitored for
possible changes to timing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some minor restrictions in BR still seem reasonable around 12Z,
mainly at TOP and FOE, with little cloud and very light winds
and crossover temperatures likely being approached or met.
Modest south winds around 10 knots should develop at a few
thousand feet AGL which brings minor mixing potential that could
mitigate IFR or lower restrictions. VFR conditions should
dominate by 14Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Poage