762
FXUS63 KTOP 141120
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decaying MCS this morning results in additional convection
  possible later this morning and afternoon for portions of
  central Kansas.

- Occasional shower and storm chances persist tonight through
  early next week. Mesoscale attributes and weak forcing
  determines the severity of convection.

- Seasonably warm temps in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast
  today through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Several MCS clusters have developed throughout the higher terrain of
western KS and NE this morning. The elevated CAPE gradient oriented
northwest to southeast over central KS suggests this activity should
remain west of the forecast area through sunrise. Short term
guidance has been consistent in the last several hours of a residual
outflow boundary aided by decent WAA setting up over central Kansas,
developing additional scattered storms by late morning (generally
south of I-70). Effective shear in the mid levels remains fairly
weak (< 30 kts) despite decent instability in excess of 3000 J/KG.
If you are able to get a rotating updraft, large hail and gusty
winds are the main hazards, albeit the probability is low.

Overall forecast is uncertain given the subtle weak forcing and warm
temps aloft to necessitate organized convection within northeast
Kansas this evening. Other than the 00Z Nam and GFS, majority of
HREF guidance remains dry other than an isolated storm or two so
have lowered pops to slight chances this evening. Sunday should be
mostly dry with low chances for scattered showers and storms to
redevelop along any residual boundaries, which remains to be seen as
mid range models continue to advertise a slow moving upper trough
and MCS sliding southward through northeast Kansas.

The warm, moist airmass and subtle waves aloft suggest slight pops
are prudent heading into Monday early evening. Forecast soundings
suggest decent instability and modest hodographs, despite
uncertainty in forcing. A stronger, upper shortwave trough and
frontal boundary drops south early Tuesday morning, signaling higher
probs for an MCS to spread into northern Kansas by Tuesday morning,
potentially redeveloping storms in the late afternoon and evening
elsewhere. These storms may be strong to severe with large hail and
damaging winds possible. The upper ridge begins to build in
Wednesday onward, lowering rain chances while overall highs hold on
the warm side in the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions at terminals with main concern being TSRA probs
as short term guidance varies by the hour on progression of
current cluster of TSRA over central KS. KMHK is more likely to
have TSRA redevelop in the 19-20Z range so have introduced
PROB30 group with slow moving storms lasting to near 00Z.
Uncertainty was too high for mention at KTOP/KFOE however it`s
worth noting there is at least a 20% chance for storms to impact
the terminals aft 00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto