982
FXUS63 KTOP 252340
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
640 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot and Humid today with dangerous heat continuing into
Monday and possibly Tuesday.

- An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisories are active across all
of eastern Kansas though Monday.

- Temperatures fall back closer to average following a weak frontal
boundary Tuesday.

- Minimal chances for widespread precipitation until mid to late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The large upper-level dome of high pressure has led to relentless
heat and humidity across much of the central US today and is
expected to keep heat concerns through Monday. Today, afternoon
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are common as highs are
expected to top out a few degrees further in the next few hours. This
paired with a very oppressive and humid airmass - characterized by
dewpoints in the upper 70s and low 80s - has led to heat indices in
the 105-120 degree range. An Extreme heat Warning has been extended
to include all of eastern Kansas and portions of central KS. The
remainder of the area across north-central KS remains under a Heat
Advisory.

The next few days will not see much improvement in the heat as
temperatures Sunday and Monday will top out in the upper 90s to low
100s. Dewpoints Sunday/Monday are expected to mix out a bit under
slightly windier conditions, but dewpoints still around 70-75
degrees, heat indices will again push into the 105-115 degree range.
The first `cool` day may come by Tuesday as energy rounding the
upper ridge pushes a weak frontal boundary across the area through
the morning and early afternoon. Areas across northern Kansas may
see highs top out in the low 90s behind this boundary while areas
across east-central and southern Kansas may still warm into the mid
to upper 90s with heat indices pushing back into the low to mid
100s. Along with the frontal passage, some low-end PoPs can be
expected, mainly across central and north-central KS Tuesday morning
and afternoon. This could too help to keep things a bit cooler
during the day Tuesday and this uncertainty in temperatures Tuesday
has kept heat headlines as an Extreme Heat Watch at this time.

A slightly cooler and more seasonable summer pattern sets up
Wednesday and into the weekend as temperatures fall back towards the
low 90s. As the upper ridge regresses back west through the week, an
increase in mid-level waves will be able to round the ridge and pass
over the region. This should yield some off an on chances for PoPs
near daily with Thursday into Friday looking to be the next best
chance for widespread precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There may be some patchy
ground fog developing towards sunrise at KTOP and KMHK. If ground
fog develops, it will mix out by 13Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ020-
KSZ021-KSZ034-KSZ035.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
Heat Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Heat Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Gargan