047
FXUS63 KTOP 120428
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1028 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures continue into the weekend.

- Next chance for rain appears late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The deep trough that brought the winter preview of the past couple
days is steadily moving away to the east. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude
shortwave trough is over the Dakotas, bringing a surge of WAA as
westerly 850-700 mb winds downslope off the Rockies. As a result,
temperatures are currently over 20 degrees warmer than this time
yesterday. Warm temperatures will continue through Saturday as upper
ridging shifts eastward over the Plains and gradually amplifies.
Potential for temperatures in the mid 70s Friday and Saturday, as
WAA strengthens again ahead of a stronger western trough.

This western trough will bring changes to the area by Sunday.
Guidance is coming into better agreement that the trough will split
into two pieces, with a more progressive northern piece and a
southern piece that will become cut off near California. The
northern piece looks to push a cold front through our area later
Saturday. With less moisture advection out ahead of this first wave,
increasingly likely we stay dry for much of Sunday. The better rain
chances appear to wait until Sunday night or Monday as the cut-off
low gets ejected towards the Plains. The eventual track/timing of
this low is still somewhat uncertain, which limits confidence on
overall rainfall details.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected. Temperatures are approaching crossover
thresholds and some shallow fog development is looking more likely.
Have input a TEMPO group for fog at KTOP/KMHK in the river valley,
but expect elevated winds just off the surface to keep fog shallow
and transient. Winds remain light and variable through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Flanagan