487
FXUS63 KTOP 092335
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
535 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the 50s and
  lows in the 30s through the rest of the week.


- Dry conditions favored through the end of the week. A storm
  system may impact some of the region Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

After a day of record-breaking warmth, a cold front will push
through eastern Kansas tonight. While we wont see any rain with
this front, wind will shift out of the north at 10 to 15 mph.
Temperatures tomorrow will be much closer to what we expect for
early February, with highs in the 50s compared to todays 70s.

A weak upper-level wave will pass over the Plains on Thursday.
This will bring an increase in cloud cover and a very slight
chance for a few sprinkles. However, forecast soundings show
very ample dry air in the lower half of the atmosphere, so most
of any moisture that falls should evaporate before reaching the
surface. No measurable rainfall is expected at this time.

Friday through the weekend, our attention shifts to a more
significant storm system currently expected to move into the
central U.S. by Saturday. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding the exact track of this system, which will
determine how much moisture we receive. The ECMWF and GFS keep
the track of the storm south and our area dry, while the
Canadian and UKMet models bring the low far enough north to
bring rain to the area.

Current trends suggest rain is the most likely form of
precipitation, if we end up receiving any. As temperatures cool
Saturday night, there is a low potential for some snow to mix
in with the rain, though ground temperatures remain warm enough
that no accumulation would occur.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Expect VFR conditions during the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
will decrease under 10 KTS after sunset while a LLJ will
increase from the southwest at 40 to 45 KTS after 2Z. This will
provide the terminals with low-level wind shear from 2Z through
8Z before a front moves southeast across the terminals and the
stronger LLJ shifts east of the terminals. North winds will
increase to 12 to 15 KTS with gusts of 20 to 24 KTS after 15Z
and continue through the afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Gargan