671
FXUS64 KTSA 271725
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1110 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

 - Widespread dangerous heat continue through Tuesday, with
   afternoon heat indices of 105-115 F. Dangerous heat persists
   for portions of the area through Friday.

 - A minor cool down and a chance of showers and storms is
   expected mid to late week. A more substantial cool down may
   then occur over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A strong area of high pressure remains overhead today. Like the last
few days, models are probably too aggressive with mixing out low
level moisture, but even so, a marginal reduction in afternoon dew
points is expected. This will be offset by slightly hotter
surface conditions. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 90s to
low 100s, with heat indices of 105-112 F for most locations.
Widespread Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in
effect. No rain, and not even much in the way of clouds, is
expected. Overnight will be very mild and quiet, with lows in the
70s to near 80 F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Dangerous heat continues Tuesday with overall similar conditions.
Elected to continue the Extreme Heat Warning for the same areas that
have had one the last few days, with a Heat Advisory elsewhere. By
later Tuesday model guidance shows a weak shortwave with associated
storms rounding the upper level ridge. These may clip the
northeastern portion of the forecast area. For now impacts are
expected to be minimal.

Heading into the Wednesday through Friday period, the upper level
ridge will slightly weaken along with a subtle shift westward.
This will allow weak shortwaves to pass through the region. A
shallow weak cold front will also stall near the area during this
period. Increasing rain chances will result, mostly 10-30 percent,
but locally a bit higher for portions of far northeast OK and
northwest AR. These storms could produce gusty winds along with
locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures are expected to drop
slightly, with highs in the 90s. The corresponding increase in
dew points will keep heat indices elevated, and may require the
continuation of daily heat products for some areas.

Ensemble guidance is honing in on a more robust cold front Friday
into Saturday. There is not currently much of a precipitation signal
with it, but it does look notably cooler behind it. Temperatures may
drop below normal for the first time in a while with highs in the
80s and low 90s. As this is still multiple days away, some
adjustments to the forecast are expected in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions along with passing high clouds are forecast for the
CWA through the TAF period. Winds remain south to southwest as
well through the period, with the exception of KFSM where a more
variable wind is forecast tonight/Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 103  82  99 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   79 103  81  98 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   79 101  79 100 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   78 101  78  97 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   77  98  77  93 /   0   0  20  30
BYV   77  99  76  91 /   0  10  40  40
MKO   77 100  79  98 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   78  99  78  94 /   0   0  20  30
F10   77 102  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075-172-276-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-063-
     068-069-073-075-172-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062-
     064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     OKZ055>062-064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-119-120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
     220.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-
     219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20