625
FXUS64 KTSA 190550
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

 - Very hot conditions through Wednesday followed by some slight
   cooling, but temperatures will remain above average into next
   week.

 - A few isolated showers and storms may occur at times this
   week, particularly Wednesday into Thursday, but overall dry
   weather will continue.

 - At least limited fire weather conditions remain a daily concern
   due to drying fuels and periods of breezy winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The overnight hours will be dominated largely by clear skies and
warm temperatures for all locations. Southerly winds will
gradually pick up overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping
off much, even though dewpoints are relatively low across the
region. Lows in the upper 70s to mid 80s will be common by sunrise
Wednesday with breezy southerly winds persisting. A few elevated
showers will be possible just after sunrise across portions of
far northeast Oklahoma within a zone of increased warm advection
ascent ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Most precip
likely will not reach the ground, but what does will be light with
little to no measurable precipitation expected. These showers and
sprinkles will drift to the northeast and gradually dissipate
through the morning as the low level jet weakens.

The rest of the day Wednesday will likely prove to be the hottest
day of the year for most, even after record temperatures on
Tuesday. A strong low level thermal ridge will set up from
central into eastern Oklahoma ahead of the surface cool front
which will move into northeast Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon.
Efficient mixing of very warm 850mb temps, along with downslope
southwesterly surface flow and mostly clear skies will allow temps
to quickly rise into the triple digits by midday. Widespread
highs of 105 plus degrees can be expected again during the
afternoon with some places reaching 110 or more. The current
headlines remain unchanged, with the Extreme Heat Warning in place
across much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, while
a Heat Advisory remains across far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas where some uncertainty in frontal position and
cloud cover could keep those places slightly cooler. Like previous
days, a few isolated showers or storms will be possible over the
terrain areas during peak heating hours.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The frontal boundary will slowly sag southward Wednesday evening
and overnight. SLightly better chances for thunderstorm
development will follow the boundary through the overnight hours
across northwest Arkansas, trailing back into eastern Oklahoma.
Given forecast profiles, a couple stronger storms could produce
strong downburst winds, especially across northwest Arkansas where
shear will be stronger in closer proximity to a passing mid level
wave. Otherwise, just some brief downpours and lightning will be
the main impacts from any storm activity. Thursday will be
slightly cooler, but still above normal for most as highs again
approach 100, especially across the south.

Upper ridging generally remains centered just to the west of the
local region, meaning mainly hot and dry weather will persist
through the weekend into early next week. Isolated afternoon
showers or storms will continue to be possible, mainly across
western Arkansas as various shortwave pass close by in the
northwesterly flow aloft. Overall though, coverage is expected to
be minimal any one day and most of the area will remain dry.
Another front could try to move through the area by Tuesday or
Wednesday of next week, bringing another round of slightly cooler
temps and at least limited rain chances.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

LLWS conditions are forecast across NE OK and NW AR through mid-
morning on Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail with gusty south
to southwest winds at times to near 20 kts across E OK and NW AR
tonight into Wednesday. Increasing mid cloud, especially across
the north, may be accompanied by some spotty showers but
confidence is too low to go with anything more than VCSH. A front
will bring a wind shift during the afternoon across NE OK and near
00Z over in NW AR. There is some chance for showers or a storm
with the front, but chances are too low at this point to go with
anything other than VCSH. This will be revisited on the 12Z
forecast, as well as the potential for scattered high-based
showers and isolated storms just beyond the scope of this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  106  76  99  74 /  10  20   0  10
FSM  109  78 104  75 /  20  20  20   0
MLC  108  80 105  76 /   0  20  20   0
BVO  104  70  98  69 /  20  20   0   0
FYV  104  74  98  70 /  20  20  10   0
BYV  102  72  94  68 /  20  50  10   0
MKO  107  75 100  72 /   0  20  10  10
MIO  101  71  95  69 /  20  30   0   0
F10  110  76 102  73 /   0  20  20  10
HHW  103  80 104  76 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069-
     172.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-
     055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-
     354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
     220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30