456
FXUS64 KTSA 050523
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

 - Chilly through tonight, then warmer Friday and Saturday, with
   another dry cold front Saturday night

 - Patchy fog development Arkansas River valley early Friday
   morning and parts of the forecast area Friday night

 - Another warm up is expected early next week with dry conditions
   persisting

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A parent upper level trof over the region Thursday night is
expected to remain over the Southern Plains into the weekend. In
response, scattered high clouds within the 500-mb flow are
expected to continue to stream over portions of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure
over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Thursday night will
push southeast early Friday morning with light/variable winds
transitioning back to a more southerly component. Also, early
Friday morning, depending on the amount of cloud cover as the
northern portion of the CWA could remain mostly clear, there is
potential for patchy areas of fog development over locations that
received precipitation Thursday. Greater potential would be over
the Interstate 40 corridor into the Arkansas River valley. Any
areas of reduced visibility should improve through the Friday
morning hours.

During the day Friday, southerly winds will aid temperatures to
warm back into the 40s to low 50s ahead of a weak vort max/wind
shift forecast to move through the region Friday night. With this
disturbance Friday night, mainly an increase in cloud cover and
winds returning to light/variable are anticipated. The deeper
moisture remains south of the CWA, and thus the passage of the
vort max is dry. However, latest model soundings and the short-
term guidance indicate the potential for patchy areas of fog
development once again over portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Temperatures Friday night should be warmer
compared to Thursday night with lows in the 30s for most
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

With the main parent trof holding over the Southern Plains through
the weekend, the southern portion of a second shortwave is progged
to push through Saturday night into Sunday with a dry cold front
across the CWA. Ahead of this second shortwave, a quick return to
southerly winds and warmer temperatures are forecast during the
day Saturday. Behind the frontal passage Saturday night, breezy
north to northwesterly winds are forecast into Sunday, which will
help to drop temperatures back into the 40s for the majority of
the CWA.

With the exit of the shortwave Sunday night, this should be enough
to kick out the parent upper level trof allowing for a more
west/northwesterly mid and upper flow for the first part of next
week. Surface high pressure Monday also is forecast to exit Monday
night helping to return southerly low level flow and a warming
trend into Wednesday. Winds Tuesday into Wednesday could become
breezy and have increased speeds over NBM. Temperatures respond
with highs each day in the 50s to potentially low 60s over the
CWA. The warming trend looks to get put on pause after Wednesday
next week with another dry shortwave moving through the Plains.
Latest model solutions differ on the timing of this wave, though a
wind shift and an increase in cloud cover is forecast during the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Temps by late next week look to get
back closer to the seasonal average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the northeast Oklahoma sites. The
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites continue to have
the potential for some fog development overnight, along with MVFR
ceilings from time to time. These sites are expected to improve to
VFR by mid to late morning Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   24  51  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  50  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   24  52  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   20  49  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  48  32  55 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   25  49  32  53 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   26  50  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   22  48  32  53 /   0   0  10   0
F10   25  50  33  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  49  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05