369
FXUS64 KTSA 050532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

 - Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

 - Unsettled pattern returns late next week with multiple
   opportunities for showers and thunderstorms into the next
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the weather across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight and into Sunday,
leading to quiet weather conditions. A few high clouds persist
this evening across the eastern fringes of the forecast area, with
additional clouds filtering into southeast Oklahoma from the west.
Temperatures overnight will drop into the mid and upper 30s across
parts of far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, but
enough wind should remain to prevent much in the way of frost.
Northerly winds will pick up a bit during the afternoon hours on
Sunday, but speeds and gustiness will be reduced compared to
today. Near to slightly below normal afternoon highs should be
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Quiet weather will prevail into the early to middle part of next
week, with a more active weather pattern developing once again
toward the latter part of next week into the next weekend. The
influence of the aforementioned surface high pressure will extend
into Monday morning, leading to another morning with lows in the
mid and upper 30s for parts of northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas. Winds may be more supportive of patchy frost
development Monday morning, particularly across the cooler spots
in northwest Arkansas. The surface high will shift east of the
area Monday, with a return to southerly winds across the area that
will persist through most of the work week. Near to just above
normal temperatures should return Monday and continue Tuesday.
Wind speeds and gusts will uptick on Wednesday as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of a front approaching from the north
and west. Southerly gusts near 30 mph may occur in the afternoon.
The front itself remains likely to stall near the Kansas border
in the Wednesday night to Thursday time frame, leading to low
shower and thunderstorm chances into northeast Oklahoma. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase areawide Friday and into
next weekend, as an upper level low drops southward along the West
Coast and eventually moves onshore in the southwest United
States/Baja region. This will lead to southwest flow aloft and
potential for active weather tied to waves in this flow ahead of
the main system to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  43  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   69  42  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   68  42  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   67  38  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   65  37  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  39  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  41  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   64  39  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
F10   68  42  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   68  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05