012
FXUS64 KTSA 301825
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning. Light mixed
   wintry precipitation is expected for some areas Monday into
   Monday night. There is a low to medium chance for minor
   impacts, mainly in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another
   potent cold front arrives Wednesday night.

 - A storm system could bring potential for more wintry
   precipitation toward the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Clouds will be on the increase across the region from west to east
by this evening. Increasing warm advection aloft will bring a low
chance for rain down near the Red River by early morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

An upper storm system, denoted clearly on WV imagery over UT/NV,
will drop down into the Four Corners and then east into the Plains
on Monday. Ahead of the system, increasing warm advection aloft
could result in spotty light precipitation across much of E OK
into NW AR during the day, as indicated in the CAMs. Model
soundings suggest that cloud ice will be lacking ahead of the
upper wave, leaning toward liquid to be the dominant type if
precip does eventually fight through the lower level dry air.
Forecast surface temps near freezing across portions of NE OK, NW
AR and the terrain of SE OK would result in the potential for
icing and travel impact, as it takes very little ice to cause
problems. An advisory may be needed over much of the region if
the worst case scenario plays out. However, confidence in
amounts/impacts warrants holding off on headline issuance for now.
Relatively higher QPF potential from SE OK into W-central AR
still points to relatively higher icing potential mainly in the
terrain areas, with the latest forecast of a tenth of an inch or
so along the ridge tops.

A band of light to moderate snow is expected as the upper wave
grazes across NE OK and NW AR during the afternoon and evening.
Snow accumulations are expected to be pretty light (dusting) and
confined mainly closer to the KS and MO borders. Precipitation
should come to a quick end from west to east Monday evening.

Quiet weather and warming temps can be expected Tuesday and
Wednesday before another strong cold front pushes through
Wednesday night. A storm system approaching the region from the
southwest during the latter part of the week could bring the
potential for more wintry weather, but confidence in the details
is low at this point.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the vast majority of this
forecast. High and mid clouds will overspread the region later
this afternoon and overnight with north winds becoming lighter
and more easterly with time. By later Monday morning, some
potential may develop for areas of very light precipitation,
primarily rain or freezing rain depending on the surface
temperature. Given a slightly greater probability at the NW AR
sites, will include a PROB30 of -fzra, however impactful amounts
through 18z Monday are not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  35  21  46 /  10  30  10   0
FSM   30  37  25  45 /  10  40  30   0
MLC   29  39  22  48 /  10  30  20   0
BVO   23  34  18  46 /  10  30   0   0
FYV   25  36  20  43 /  10  40  30   0
BYV   25  32  21  41 /  10  40  30   0
MKO   28  36  21  46 /  10  30  20   0
MIO   25  33  19  42 /  10  40  20   0
F10   28  37  20  47 /  10  20  10   0
HHW   31  37  24  46 /  20  50  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14