918
FXUS64 KTSA 141115
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1053 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the upcoming
   work week. Expect heat headlines on multiple days.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past
   few days, the ongoing drought conditions will require much
   more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will
   continue during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Diffuse surface boundary over the region should remain quiet
overnight as it lifts back north of the local area. Expanding hot
airmass will result in triple-digit heat indices over a broader
area Monday afternoon with much of west central AR and large
portion of eastern OK at least close to 105. Current
configuration of heat advisory for today still looks valid,
though marginal in some areas. With upper ridge axis just to our
east, isolated afternoon convection remains possible especially
over the higher terrain of western AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The upper level pattern is not expected to change much this week
with ridge centered to our east and westerlies remaining to the
north, resulting in several more days of summer weather. Surface
boundary lingering across the Central Plains remains just close
enough that some associated convection could brush northern areas
a time or two, along with above mentioned possibility of
isolated, mainly terrain-deriven convection each afternoon. But
the main message will be well above normal temperatures and
likely need for additional heat headlines.

Considerable uncertainty remains as to just when this pattern may
finally break down and allow for a frontal passage. Extended
forecast continues to reflect a cooling trend with more meaningful
rain chances early next week, but spread in guidance remains
considerable in that range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with just some
scattered mid and high clouds through the afternoon. Southerly
winds will pick up and become gusty by mid to late morning. Gusts
around 20 knots will be common during the day before backing off
some after sunset.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  79  98  77 /   0   0   0  10
FSM  102  76 102  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC  102  78 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  73  98  70 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   97  72  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   95  75  97  74 /  20   0   0   0
MKO  100  76  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   96  75  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
F10  100  77 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW  100  76  99  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-055>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-
     354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04