540
FXUS64 KTSA 141723
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the upcoming
   work week. Expect heat headlines on multiple days.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past
   few days, the ongoing drought conditions will require much
   more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will
   continue during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Lee side pressure falls resulting in stronger southerly low level
flow this morning, with some gusts over 20 mph already noted. This
will allow for hotter airmass to spread farther north compared to
yesterday, and also raise the fire weather potential to a degree
in those areas that missed the rain late last week as RH falls to
around 35%. Current heat advisory will continue for all but
northwest AR and a small adjacent part of northeast OK, with temps
in the upper 90s to a little over 100 and HI topping out near
105.

Slightly deeper moisture resides across western AR into far
southeast OK and a few terrain-forced storms are still possible
this afternoon and evening, however most locations will remain
dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Little change in the overall pattern is anticipated this week. A
frontal boundary in the Central Plains will push farther south
Tuesday, potentially warming temps a degree or two. This may also
allow for evening storms to at least brush the far northern
locations, and the potential for isolated terrain-driven
convection remains as well. The upper ridge is forecast to expand
slightly to the northwest later in the week, which should reduce
the threat of thunderstorms even further. Additional heat
headlines will likely be needed.

Some degree of upper ridge breakdown is still indicated by global
models next week, but ensemble spread still is high and exactly
when this happens remains in question at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period
for all sites. Gusty south-southwest winds continue this afternoon
before decreasing this evening and tonight. LLWS is expected
overnight across parts of NE OK as the nocturnal LLJ strengthens.
A few isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon, particularly across the higher terrain of NW AR, but
most of the region will remain dry. Probabilities remain too low
to mention in TAFs at this time, but amendments may be required
for any development near TAF sites. Similar conditions are
expected tomorrow with sfc winds increasing by late morning into
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77 103  77 101 /   0  10   0  20
MLC   79 102  77 101 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   74 101  71  99 /   0   0  20   0
FYV   73  99  73  98 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   75  98  75  96 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   76 100  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   76  98  74  97 /   0   0  20  10
F10   77 101  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   76 100  75  99 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>067-
     070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-
     055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...43