016
FXUS64 KTSA 211135
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
635 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

 - Well above average temperatures are expected this week with
   dangerous heat at times for much of the area.

 - Isolated to scattered showers will occur periodically for the
   next several days, but overall dry weather will continue.

 - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
   fuels and periods of gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A frontal boundary remains draped across southeast OK, and was
the source for earlier storm activity. The REFS (a multi member
convective allowing ensemble) shows a 30-50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight across much of eastern
Oklahoma. It shows elevated storms forming along a convergent
850-700 hPa boundary beneath some modestly strong mid level flow.
This seems like a good representation given showers and storms are
already forming within that axis. With that said, total
precipitation will likely be minimal, with the most likely hazard
being locally gusty wind.

Friday will be another very hot day. Most models show temperatures
as hot as today, but with some cloud cover around nudged the
forecast slightly below NBM. Still, assuming decent clearing
develops for at least part of the day, temperatures will be
pushing 100 F for many areas, especially southeast OK. The Heat
Advisory was expanded slightly with this update, to cover more of
northeast OK, maintaining the rest of the existing footprint.
CAMs seem to be increasing in confidence on the potential for some
additional showers and storms Friday evening, likely with plenty
of wind but minimal rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For the next week the synoptic pattern will largely remain locked in
place, with a persistent strong high centered across the southern
Rockies. It will remain close enough to keep temperatures hot,
with highs mostly in the mid 90s to low 100s. As this is largely a
continuation of the pattern in place, Heat Advisories will likely
be needed most days for at least part of the area.

With all of that said, the center of the previously mentioned high
will remain just far enough west to allow for modest mid level flow
and several transient weak shortwaves to pass through. This will
keep a periodic risk of isolated showers and storms for the area for
much of the next week. The excessively dry boundary layer will
continue to limit rainfall potential. Beyond just enhancing the
evaporation, this is where existing drought can start to feed back
on itself. The lower quantity of boundary layer moisture makes it
somewhat harder for storms to produce rainfall, as clouds must be
lifted to a slightly higher altitude to achieve sufficient
saturation. Additionally, the deeper boundary layer increases the
wind potential. A few severe wind gusts may be possible with the
stronger storms each day, which will occur off and on into at least
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning will end by
mid to late morning. Additional shower and thunderstorm
development is expected overnight tonight, with the potential for
impacts at all sites. VFR conditions will prevail outside of
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  75  98  74 /  20  30  20   0
FSM  103  76 100  72 /  20  30  30  10
MLC  104  76 103  74 /  20  30  30  20
BVO  100  69  97  69 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   99  71  96  70 /  20  20  30  10
BYV   96  71  94  69 /   0  10  20  10
MKO  100  73  98  70 /  20  30  20  10
MIO   99  71  95  70 /  20  20  20   0
F10  102  73 101  72 /  30  30  30  10
HHW  103  76 102  74 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-055>057-059>062-064>068-070-071-073>075-172-176-
     272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05