871
FXUS64 KTSA 110545
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

-  Hot and humid weather will continue through Thursday.

 - Thunderstorms are expected across the region Thursday
   afternoon and night. Strong downburst winds and hail will
   accompany the strongest storms.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist into the weekend.
   Saturday night into Sunday is expected to have the greatest
   storm coverage. Excessive rainfall will occur in areas
   experiencing multiple storms, with some seeing several inches
   of rain. Flash flooding potential will exist with the storms.
   The rain potential will aggravate the flood risk near area
   creeks and rivers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Strong to severe storms along frontal boundary remain in central KS
as CIN continues to increase across the local area this evening.
Very little chance any of this will expand much father south and
this continues to be supported by recent CAMs.

Frontal boundary will continue slow progression south Thursday with
a hot and humid airmass residing over eastern OK and western AR.
Temperatures should warm a couple of degrees within the corridor
just ahead of the boundary near I-44 and a little south, potentially
with HI values touching right around 105 given the anticipated dew
points. Present heat advisory will be expanded into this area to
account for this. Portions of the Arkansas River valley may also be
close to advisory levels.

With weakening inhibition Thursday afternoon, front is expected to
force a line of thunderstorms across northeast OK around 21z or
slightly before. Instability will support strong updrafts with
enough shear to support some organization, and a wind and hail
threat with more organized cells. Corridor of near 2 inch PWATs will
also support heavy rain threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Rain and storms will continue southeast progression Thursday night
into early Friday as the front advances, with waning severe threat
during that time. The threat of heavy rainfall will persist
overnight before an overall decrease Friday.

The front washes out Friday night into Saturday with a quick return
of hot and humid conditions for Saturday. Current trends suggest
potential for additional heat headlines Saturday will be possible.
Showers and thunderstorms chances return Saturday evening with some
potential for an organized storm complex to impact parts of the
local area as it moves out of Kansas, with potential uptick in
severe weather threat. This will also raise the heavy rainfall
threat with a few locations potentially ending up with several
inches of rainfall. A more substantial cold front will bring a
couple of days of below normal temperatues early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

GOES-19 night fog product imagery shows patchy stratus developing
across portions of southeast OK and western AR early this morning.
Stratus is expected to expand west and north through the night,
though exact coverage is still unknown at this time. Will go ahead
and maintain TEMPO groups at KMLC and all four AR TAF sites for
brief periods of MVFR cigs through mid-late morning, with
relatively low forecast confidence on coverage. A frontal boundary
remains on track to move through the forecast area beginning mid-
late afternoon. A narrow line (or broken line) of thunderstorms
are likely to form along the leading edge of the frontal boundary.
Adjusted and further added PROB30 groups, with timing more in
line with the latest hi-res guidance. The cold front is expected
to push through all TAF sites by the end of the TAF period, with
showers and storms lingering across southeast OK and western AR.
Ahead of the approaching front, southerly winds will once again be
gusty through this morning and into this afternoon, with frequent
gusts 20 to 30 knots before the front passes. Winds will weaken
significantly and turn out of the north/northeast behind the
front.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  68  85  74 /  60  60  10  20
FSM   93  74  88  75 /   0  90  30  10
MLC   93  73  88  76 /   0  90  50  10
BVO   93  64  84  71 /  50  20  10  30
FYV   90  68  86  72 /   0  90  10  30
BYV   90  66  84  68 /   0  80  10  40
MKO   91  69  85  73 /  10  80  30  10
MIO   91  64  84  70 /  80  60   0  50
F10   92  68  85  73 /  20  90  40  10
HHW   92  75  88  75 /   0  70  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ055>067-354.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...67