281
FXUS64 KTSA 291736
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

 - Low daily rain chances /20-30 percent/ and well below normal
   temperatures forecast through the weekend.

 - Higher chances /30-40 percent/ for more widespread rain
   arrives Monday night into Tuesday as the next system moves
   through.

 - Stronger cold front by mid to late next week could bring more
   rain chances and maintain well below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A much quieter day has transpired across eastern OK and western AR
as surface high pressure centers itself across the forecast area.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows a thick blanket of stratus
clouds over much of eastern OK, with a few pockets of mostly sunny
to partly cloudy skies across portions of far eastern OK and
northwest AR. Skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy to overcast
for most locations through sunset. The cloud cover will keep
temperatures cool, with afternoon highs generally in the mid-upper
70s, perhaps touching 80 degrees briefly across far eastern OK and
northwest AR where more sunshine occurs. A few, spotty light showers
may pop up this afternoon. Included some non-mentionable PoPs (10%)
for much of the area this afternoon to capture this chance. Most
locations will remain dry.

After sunset, surface ridging will begin retreating eastward and
light east to southeast winds are expected through the night. Cloud
cover will also begin to break apart more and skies should become
more partly cloudy by or before midnight. Patchy fog may develop
again in the typical fog-prone spots overnight tonight, but cloud
cover is forecast to increase again as sunrise approaches and may
limit the overall coverage and density of fog, if any develops at
all. Thus, left the mention of fog out of the forecast for now.
Overnight lows tonight will be very similar to last night, with lows
reaching the low-mid 60s for most locations.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Broad longwave troughing will remain positioned over much of the
eastern CONUS through the upcoming weekend, causing northwest flow
aloft to stick around. Unseasonably cool temperatures and low
precipitation chances /20-30 percent/ will also persist through
the weekend as a weak perturbation gets caught in the northwest
flow aloft and drifts over the area. Rain chances will be off and
on and amounts should be light, with a few hundredths to a few
tenths of an inch of rain expected through the last day of August.


Medium range forecast models hint at a surface cold front moving
into the forecast area Monday afternoon/evening into Tuesday, which
will bump up and turn winds out of the north and cause low-medium
precipitation chances /20-40 percent/ as it coincides with
another approaching shortwave trough aloft. Moisture seems to be
limited, or at least less than this past week, with this
front/shortwave trough, and overall rainfall amounts appears to be
mostly light through Tuesday at this time. Another, slightly more
potent, cold front is forecast to move through the forecast area
late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. However, there are
still lots of discrepancies in models solutions beyond Tuesday
and there are questions on how the overall pattern will transpire
by mid-late week.

As for temperatures, abnormally cool temps will continue through the
long-term period due to the flow aloft resulting in cloud cover,
precipitation, and cool air advection from cold fronts. Daytime
highs in the 70s and 80s and nighttime lows in the 50s and 60s will
be common each day/night. Warmest days in the period look to be
Monday and Wednesday.

Mejia


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

IFR to MVFR ceilings remain across the E OK terminals, with
improvement in the past hour or so at the W AR sites. Expect an
upward trend to VFR ceilings through the afternoon, with MLC
being the last to improve, likely early to mid evening. VFR
conditions are likely to prevail thereafter areawide, although a
low chance of redevelopment of MVFR cloudiness exists mainly at
the E OK sites later tonight. In addition, reduced visibilities
may occur primarily in W AR around sunrise. This will only be
mentioned at FYV to start given how much rain fell yesterday and
the climatological predisposition at the site. Winds should be
light and largely easterly through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  82  68  81 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   65  86  69  85 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   65  82  68  82 /  10  20  20  30
BVO   61  82  64  80 /  10  10  30  40
FYV   59  83  64  81 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   59  85  64  81 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   64  82  68  81 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   63  83  65  80 /   0  10  10  30
F10   65  80  66  81 /  10  10  20  30
HHW   66  81  68  82 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22