244
FXUS64 KTSA 281747
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1247 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

 - Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather
   will continue through Thursday.

 - Rain chances increase late Thursday night through Saturday.

 - Potential for stronger storm system early next week but
   uncertainty remains high.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Unseasonably warm conditions will continue tonight through
Thursday. Wind speeds will be slightly less on Thursday afternoon
which will limit grassland fire spread rates. Widespread rains
will develop across W TX and spread eastward with low rain chances
developing across areas west of Highway 75 corridor by sunrise
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Shortwave trough with a tropical moisture plume will pass across
the region Friday night into Saturday. Corridor of higher rain
chances will focus across the western periphery of the forecast
area through Friday before higher rain chances spread further east
Friday night into Saturday. Thicker cloud cover will keep
temperatures noticeably cooler on Friday. Rains are likely to
taper off from west to east across eastern OK Saturday evening and
into Saturday night across western AR. Instability continues to
appear limited as this wave passes which is expected to keep
lightning impact low through Saturday outdoor events.

Mild and dry weather is expected on Sunday ahead of the next storm
system which will impact the region next Monday into Tuesday.
Ensemble solutions remain in good agreement that a strong wave
will deepen across the central and southern Plains on Monday and
then likely make slow eastward progress through at least Tuesday.
Widespread precip shield within the warm advection plume and along
the advancing cold front are likely to impact the local region.
Timing remains varied as well as details on the warm sector
expansion ahead of the front and associated storm impact
potential. Despite the uncertainties, the trend remains for
impactful weather early next week and updated forecasts will
continue to refine details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Breezy southerly
winds will gust mostly 10-20 kts, with a few higher gusts. Winds
will diminish tonight, increasing again Thursday from the
southwest. Skies will initially be clear, with mid and high clouds
increasing Thursday morning from south to north. No rain is
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  84  63  77 /   0   0  10  50
FSM   59  86  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  83  62  75 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   56  84  58  76 /   0   0  10  70
FYV   55  82  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   59  81  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  84  61  76 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   59  82  60  77 /   0   0   0  20
F10   60  83  62  75 /   0   0  10  40
HHW   62  83  63  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06