291
FXUS64 KTSA 260419
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1019 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1019 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

 - Life threatening cold persists through Monday morning for any
   prolonged exposure.

 - Travel conditions will be slow to improve as cold temperatures
   persist through early week, though some temperature moderation
   is expected. Sleet and snow pack will impact temperature trends
   through at least mid week.

 - Pattern by late week favors reinforcing cold front but dry
   weather is most likely at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Extreme and life threatening cold remains the immediate issue
across all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with
temperatures late this evening having already fallen into the
single digits across much of the northern half of the area. A
similar drop is expected across the remainder of southeast
Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas once the residual mid
cloud and light snow/flurries associated with the disturbance in
East Texas shift fully to the east after midnight. When the wind
is factored in, widespread subzero wind chill values, potentially
as low as 20 below, will result. Have decreased the low
temperature forecast a couple of degrees in most areas given how
quickly temps can plummet with this kind of snow/sleet pack given
even a short window of clear skies and lighter winds. Another
batch of mid and high cloud, along with scattered flurries will
move in from the west toward daybreak with the approach of
another disturbance moving through the panhandles.

Into the daylight hours on Monday, clearing skies are expected,
although that should only have a modest effect on temperatures.
Highs are likely to only warm into the upper teens and 20s,
despite the sunshine and a return to west and southwesterly winds
during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Temperatures are going to be the main forecast problem for much of
the week ahead, largely driven by changes in the snow/sleet pack.
Dry weather looks likely during the extended. Extreme cold
conditions are likely to occur again Monday night and into Tuesday
morning, with another warning likely needed for most, if not all,
the area. Thought was given to extending the existing warning all
the way through to Tuesday morning, but given the degree of the
warmup on Monday afternoon, decided against that path. Above
freezing temperatures remain expected for most areas Tuesday
afternoon, as well as Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, with a
couple of weak wind shifts during that period serving to keep any
prolonged southerly flow from developing. A stronger boundary
looks to come through Thursday night and into Friday, with cooler
temperatures extending into at least the early part of the
weekend. Noticeably warmer conditions may be in the offing for the
latter part of next weekend and into the following work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Winds will remain light and out of the northwest tonight through
Monday morning. Ceilings will redevelop tonight after 8Z, but will
remain at or above 8 kft, clearing near dawn. Winds will shift to
southwest in the afternoon, strongest in northeast OK with some
gusts near 20 kts. Some marginal low level wind shear may develop
Monday night but was not included in the TAF at this time due to it
being marginal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   17  -3  23   7 / MMM  10  10   0
FSM   22   0  24   4 / MMM  10   0   0
MLC   19  -4  25   3 / MMM  10  10   0
BVO   18  -6  23   4 / MMM  10  10   0
FYV   17  -8  20   6 / MMM  10   0   0
BYV   13  -7  21  10 / MMM  10   0   0
MKO   18  -4  22   5 / MMM  10  10   0
MIO   14  -5  20   8 / MMM  10   0   0
F10   17  -5  23   5 / MMM  10  10   0
HHW   21   4  27   7 / MMM  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06