388
FXUS64 KTSA 111122
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

 - Decreasing shower coverage late this evening, with cool
   overnight temperatures tonight.

 - Temps near to above mid May normals forecast for the week
   ahead with low rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A cool and largely low impact overnight period is expected ahead
of your Monday, behind today/s frontal passage. A few lingering
showers remain in the vicinity of far southeast Oklahoma and also
across parts of northwest and west central Arkansas that should
clear out just after midnight as the upper level trough axis
pushes south and east of the area. The low impact weather will
extend into Monday with surface high pressure across the region
leading to light winds, decreasing cloudiness and seasonable
afternoon temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Southerly winds make a return to the region Monday night and into
Tuesday as surface high pressure pushes to the east and another
front approaches the area from the north. Warmer conditions will
accompany the southerly winds, aided by the location of the pre-
frontal warm nose during the afternoon. Low shower and
thunderstorm chances accompany the front across far northeast
Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas Tuesday night, with
severe weather unlikely. Temperatures will not drop off much
behind the front, with above normal temperatures expected
Wednesday afternoon as well. Upper level ridging builds into the
region briefly in the Wednesday night into Thursday time frame,
bringing even warmer temperatures and breezy conditions for
Thursday afternoon. For Friday and Saturday, largely zonal flow
aloft is forecast, with periodic disturbances moving through the
region leading to increased cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm
potential. There is low confidence in the timing of each potential
disturbance at this range. Late in the weekend, a more substantial
upper level system is depicted in medium range models, likely
bringing more widespread and substantial precipitation to the
area. Well above normal temperatures are favored Friday through
the weekend, although potential cloud cover and precipitation
could serve as a limit on just how high afternoon temperatures get
on any given day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  55  84  60 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   80  53  84  60 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   80  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  50  85  56 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   79  53  81  56 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   76  53  81  56 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   78  53  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   77  52  80  56 /   0   0   0  30
F10   77  54  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   78  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05