225
FXUS64 KTSA 041039
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
539 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

  - Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into next week.

  - Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist toward the early to
    middle of next week, along with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Another mostly sunny and unseasonably warm day is on tap today, with
breezy south winds across northeast Oklahoma. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm into the 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Sunday and Monday, with
breezy conditions again on Sunday across northeast Oklahoma. The
upper ridge that has been over the area the past several days will
flatten out early next week as an upper trough moves into the
central plains. This will allow a weak cold front to drop south
across our area late Monday and Tuesday. A few showers and
thunderstorms may accompany the front, and increasing moisture may
also allow a few diurnal showers and storms to develop Monday
afternoon across mainly northwest Arkansas, well ahead of the front.
However, most areas will not see significant rainfall.

Temperatures, especially daytime highs, will cool back closer to
normal for a couple days during the middle of next week, but warm
weather is likely to return by late week as the upper ridge tries to
build back over the area at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Aside from the potential for some light MVFR fog at KFYV this
morning, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. SErly sfc
winds will become gusty at the NE OK sites btwn 15 and 20 kts
during the day.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  64  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   88  63  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   89  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   88  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   85  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   84  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   88  63  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   88  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   86  63  87  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30