497
FXUS64 KTSA 240452
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through
   Friday for most locations.

 - Periods of low rain chances, mainly across northeast Oklahoma,
   continue through Saturday morning.

 - Another stretch of dangerous heat likely this weekend into
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A complex of showers and storms currently moving through south-
central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma will likely continue to
decay is it moves into a zone of mid level dry air and low
instability over northeast Oklahoma. Still, the outflow boundary
could generate some light to moderate showers across far northeast
Oklahoma through the early morning hours and toward daybreak.
Coverage is expected to be minimal if any through the pre dawn
hours and any rain amounts will be light.

As we move into the day Friday, a mid level shortwave will drop
southeastward across eastern Kansas and into the Ozarks by mid
afternoon. Increasing deep layer moisture is forecast to return to
the area with a return to southerly flow. This will allow modest
instability to develop across the region by midday and
redevelopment of scattered showers and storms is expected near the
trough axis across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
through the afternoon. An increase in mid level flow associated
with the wave could potentially lead to a stronger storm or two,
with gusty winds the main threat, but widespread severe weather is
not likely. Widespread mid level cloud cover is also expected
across most of the region through the day associated with the
increasing deep layer moisture. Thus, temperatures will stay in
check mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s again tomorrow
afternoon. Heat index values will creep back over 100 however, as
the humidity increases. Any places that see a little more breaks
in the clouds and sunshine could approach heat advisory criteria,
but confidence in those locations is low at this time so have
opted to let later shifts assess the obs to see if one is
warranted Friday afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The shortwave trough axis remains over the region through Friday
night and into Saturday with some lingering spotty showers or
storms possible through the morning hours. By Saturday afternoon,
the shortwave will be exiting the area, with the upper ridge
building across much of the central CONUS. Heat and humidity will
be the story through the rest of the weekend and into at least
the middle part of next week. Triple digit temperatures along with higher
humidity will lead to heat headlines for several days. Higher
dewpoints Saturday and Sunday could lead to some extreme heat
warning criteria on those days as heat indices around 115 degrees
will be possible. Some drier air will filter in by early next week
bringing heat index values down somewhat, but still over advisory
levels for most locations through the week. Guidance is in pretty
good agreement that the ridge will shift west some by late week
with a possible frontal passage bringing temperatures back to
near normal and allowing low rain chances to enter back into the
forecast.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The main aviation concerns involve potential for a period of MVFR
ceilings after daybreak, primarily at MLC and FSM, and potential
for brief on-station category reductions due to showers late
morning into afternoon, mainly at BVO. Existing batch of
showers/thunderstorms in northwest OK and into southern KS remains
likely to diminish upon approach to northeast OK and northwest AR
with current CAM trends delaying its arrival until late morning at
BVO. VCSH has been added to the TAFs in NE OK and also NW AR,
maintaining the PROB30 for an MVFR ceiling at BVO. Highest
confidence in MVFR ceilings this morning associated with low level
moisture return remains at MLC and FSM, albeit likely later than
earlier forecast. A low chance exists at the NW AR terminals as
well but with lower confidence here, will not be included
explicitly in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  91  80  99 /   0  20  20  10
FSM   75  93  79  98 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   77  92  80  97 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  89  77  98 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   71  88  76  94 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   69  88  75  94 /   0  20  20  20
MKO   74  90  78  96 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   72  88  76  96 /   0  20  20  20
F10   74  91  78  97 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   76  92  78  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22