Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
451 FXUS65 KTWC 302039 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 139 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with near normal temperatures are expected through the middle of the week. A weak weather system will bring cooler weather and a chance of showers Wednesday to Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... *Dry and seasonable temperatures continue through Wednesday. *A weak weather system may bring a chance of rain showers and high mountain snow late Wednesday into early Thursday. Medium confidence in this forecast. *Colder temperatures are likely Friday through the weekend. Freezing overnight temperatures possible over the mountains and eastern valleys. && .DISCUSSION... Dry and seasonable weather persists across southern Arizona as we remain under northwesterly flow aloft. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward across the Great Basin. Forecast models keep this system to our northeast resulting in no meaningful change in weather besides some variable cloud cover. Temperatures as of this writing are in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the valleys and are on track to reach the lower to mid 70s. Little change is expected in the weather pattern after the aforementioned system passes through Monday. We will remain in dry northwesterly flow aloft, allowing for dry weather to continue with high temperatures generally within a few degrees of normal for this time of year. We continue to monitor the next weather system which will have a Wednesday to Thursday timeframe for arrival. WPC Cluster analysis shows that there is still considerable uncertainty in the model handling of this system, with the bulk of the variance related to how deep the system will be. Regardless, this weather system should be a bit stronger than today`s, and current forecasts have a 20-50% chance of precipitation, with higher values favoring the eastern portions of AZ. Impact with this system will be relatively small except for the potential of mountain snow. Snow levels start around 7500-8000 ft should precipitation occur, then drop to 6000-7000 ft as the system passes through. Low temperatures will likely reach below freezing across the higher mountains and across the eastern valleys after this system passes through Friday morning into the weekend. Afterward, temperatures will gradually rebound toward near normal levels with dry weather returning. && .AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds at or above 20k ft AGL through the forecast period. SFC wind 12 kts or less, favoring a SWLY to NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions prevail Tuesday and Wednesday before precipitation chances return area-wide Thursday into Friday. Above normal high temperatures continue today, cooling to slightly below normal levels Monday, then right around normal Tuesday and Wednesday, lowering to below normal late in the week. Min RH values will be in the 20-30 percent range through Wednesday, increasing to 40-50 percent Thursday and Friday. 20-foot sustained winds of 15 mph or less are expected through Tuesday, with the potential for some elevated southwest winds Wednesday especially to the southeast of Tucson. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Dang Aviation...Dang Fire Weather....Dang Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson