926
FXUS65 KTWC 140915
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 AM MST Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona through at least early next week. Temperatures peak this
Saturday through Monday, with extreme heat across southeast Arizona
and highs 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The main story this weekend is the heat with an
Extreme Heat Warning in effect today through Monday for most of
the area. Father`s Day still looking to be the hottest day during
the warning period with lower 110`s likely for the lower deserts
from Tucson west. A few spots will approach June 15 record highs.

The other story is the low end potential for a few high-based
thunderstorms east of Tucson Sunday afternoon. Yesterday over the
northern Sierra Madres storms were about 80-100 miles SSE of
Douglas where PW values were around 0.80". Storms later this
afternoon into this evening will be a bit closer to the Intl
border where HREF has PW values of 0.80" approaching the Intl
border of Cochise county. Can`t rule out a shallow outflow moving
into far SE Cochise county this evening. PW values gradually
increase across Cochise county overnight into Sunday with 14/00z
HREF and a couple of CAMs hinting at a slight chance, <15% chance,
of a high-based thunderstorm or two across Cochise county Sunday
afternoon into early evening. Little rain is expected from any
storm that develops but with inverted-V profiles, gusty winds are
likely from any storm that develops with HREF having a 30% chance
of gusts greater than 35 mph and a 10% chance of gusts of 58 mph
or greater. SPC day 2 convective outlook as areas east of a Bylas
to Sierra Vista line under general thunderstorms.

Next week: Remaining hot with daily highs after Monday just below
Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Winds will be gusty each
afternoon. A few spots east of Tucson may briefly be near critical
fire weather conditions, especially on Monday. South of the
border there will be the daily t-storm activity over the Sierra
Madres with some potential shallow seeps of moisture into the
area.

The 8-14 day outlook period (June 21-27) still looking promising
precipitation wise with CPC leaning toward above normal rainfall
(40% to 50%) as monsoonal moisture creeps/seeps north across
northern Mexico toward SE AZ. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
SKC thru much of the valid pd. Btwn 14/21z and 15/05z, FEW-SCT
10-12k ft AGL mainly SE of KTUS. SFC winds terrain driven less
than 8 kts thru 14/16z then again after 15/04z. At other times,
SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with gusts to around 20 kts and
12-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and hot conditions are expected across
southeast Arizona through early next week. Generally single digit
min RH values in the valleys, with mountain locations in the 10-18
percent range. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less from Tucson
westward, with occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to around
20 mph due to the strong surface heating. East of Tucson, breezy
afternoon and early evening 20-foot winds are expected in the Gila
River Valley today with peak wind speeds of 12-18 mph and gusts
to around 30 mph. Expect similar speeds from Tucson eastward
Monday and Tuesday as a weak weather system moves through. The
strongest winds will again be in the upper Gila River valley near
Safford, with the possibility of a few hours of near critical fire
weather conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Monday
  for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

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