959
FXUS65 KTWC 171534 AAA
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
833 AM MST Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona this week. The hottest temperatures of 2025 are forecast
to occur on Thursday with record or near record highs Thursday and
Friday. A passing weather system will bring breezy to locally
windy conditions today. Moisture increase this weekend will bring
a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly southeast
of Tucson Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies and hot temperatures will prevail across
southeast Arizona again today. Although highs will be down 2-4
degrees (versus yesterday), readings will still top out at 105-109
degrees from Tucson westward and in the upper Gila River valley near
Safford and between 100-105 degrees in the lower elevations of Santa
Cruz and Cochise counties.

Elevated wind speeds across portions of Cochise and Graham counties
(especially in the Gila River valley near Safford) will result in
near critical fire weather conditions for a couple of hours mid to
late this afternoon. May even see a location or two exceed critical
thresholds for an hour or two.

Otherwise, current forecast package on track. No updates. For more
information on the latter periods of the forecast, please refer to
the PREV DISCUSSION section below.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/18Z.
SKC thru much of the valid pd with SCT clouds at 10k-13k ft AGL SE
of KTUS. SFC wind thru 17/18Z and again aft 18/04Z will be 10 kts or
less. SFC wind between 17/18Z and 18/04Z, WLY/NWLY at 8-14 kts with
gusts to around 20 kts west of a KE77 to KOLS line and 17-22 kts and
gusts to around 30 kts east of this line. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near critical to locally critical fire weather
conditions may exist for a few hours across portions of Cochise and
Graham counties today (especially in the upper Gila River Valley and
San Simon Valley). Wind speeds expected to be around 20 mph with
gusts peaking up 35 mph. Otherwise winds everywhere else will be 15
mph with gusts up to 25 mph due to strong surface heating. Rest of
the week, hot and dry conditions expected with near to record
breaking temperatures on Thursday and Friday. Monsoon moisture will
creep along the International Border to bring slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms by the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

DATE                         Jun 19           Jun 20
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       114 115/2017     110 116/2017
AJO                       112 114/2017     106 119/2017
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         109 119/2016     104 118/2016
PICACHO PEAK              109 115/2016     107 115/2017
SAFFORD AG STATION        111 113/2021     111 112/2017
SIERRA VISTA FD           104 106/1989     102 110/2017
TOMBSTONE                 104 108/1989     103 110/2017
WILLCOX                   106 108/2017     105 112/2017
DOUGLAS                   106 109/2017     104 108/2017

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...The sky was clear across southeast Arizona this
morning with last nights upper air plots placing center of strong
upper high over northeast Sonora MX.

Today: Slightly cooler, but still hot, as a weather system moves
through the intermountain west. This system will bring breezes to
the area this afternoon which will be strongest in the Gila River
Valley where gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Combined with very dry
conditions, near critical to locally critical fire weather
conditions may exist for a few hours.

Wednesday: Highs similar to today and not as breezy as upper high
starts to expand across the region.

Thursday: Downright hot with Extreme Heat Warning in effect as the
upper high strengthens over the area. The increased upper heights
and lower thickness values brings the potential for the hottest high
temperatures of 2025 to most of the area with near record highs. For
Tucson, the 17/00z ensemble run has 32% of members for 112-114F; 44%
of members for 114-116F; and 10% of members for 116-118F.

Friday: Extreme Heat Warning continues but highs will be a few
degrees cooler than Thursday.

Monsoonal moisture will be sloshing around southern Sonora MX this
week which will gradually push toward SE AZ this weekend as flow
aloft turns southerly. Big question at this time, it how big of a
push will there be and will the bulk of the moisture be pushed into
NM as an upper level trof deepens over the west coast. Thus a dry SW
flow aloft will be over the area vs moister southerly flow aloft.
With that in mind, no changes were made to the recommended forecast
initialization for Sunday and Monday which had less than 30% PoPs SE
of Tucson.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 9 PM MST Friday for
  AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

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