Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
165 FXUS65 KTWC 172056 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 156 PM MST Thu Sep 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A chance of storms along the Arizona and New Mexico border this afternoon and evening. Drier conditions move in Friday limiting the daily chance through this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be below normal today, then be around normal Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... SFC moisture remains high, but PWATS have dropped substantially today. Forcing has also largely exited the region, with the exception of AZ/NM border. Isolated to perhaps scattered activity is expected this afternoon into early evening. While coverage and intensity should be less, enough moisture/instability and flow could produce a couple stronger storms with gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rain. This will all be east of Tucson and focused near/along the AZ/NM border. It is not out of the question we could see some minor issues or an isolated and localized flash flood threat over any areas that have received hvy rain over the past few days. This weekend through Monday: Drier air finally begins to filter into southeast Arizona as flow aloft shifts more westerly. This could help limit thunderstorm activity somewhat and keep activity mainly east and south of Tucson. High temperatures return to at or slightly above normal. Middle to end of next week hints at moisture returning to AZ and perhaps daily isolated to scattered showers/storms. Most likely area would be south and east of Tucson, but will depend on the features in play. It will be dependent on how high pressure evolves over Texas and any moisture possibly advecting north from Mexico. The EastPac tropics remains quite active, so plenty of moisture available. It will all come down to timing and if any larger scale troughs can pull moisture north. Confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY/... Mid and high level clouds west of KTUS with low level cumulus developing over the mtns around KDUG/KOLS this afternoon. ISO to perhaps SCT -TSRA/SHRA for locales east of KTUS/KOLS. Any activity diminishes during the evening. SFC winds generally light and variable less than 12 kts. Weekend outlook - much drier area wide with VFR. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... A chance of storms along the Arizona and New Mexico border this afternoon and evening. Drier conditions move in Friday limiting the daily chance through this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be below normal today and Thursday, then be around normal Friday into early next week. Min RH values mainly 20 to 45 percent in the valleys and 35 to 65 percent in the mountains over the next week. RH recoveries will continue to be excellent overnight. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven. Gusty and erratic winds will accompany thunderstorms. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson