740
FXUS65 KTWC 142040
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
140 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona through at least early next week. Temperatures peak this
Sunday through Monday, with extreme heat across southeast Arizona
and highs 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Increase breezes at the
start of the new week due to a passing weather system.

&&


.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major Heat Impacts today and through Monday. Extreme Heat
  Warning is in effect until Monday evening. Thursday may see
  another Major Risk for heat.

- Isolated Dry Lightning chances (10 percent) Sunday afternoon in
  southeast Cochise County. Gusty and erratic wind gusts is
  possible.

- Near critical to brief critical fire weather conditions
  possible across the Gila River Valley in Graham county Monday
  and Tuesday. Stronger breezes expected on Tuesday.

&&


.DISCUSSION...High pressure is over the Desert Southwest which
will continue to bring very hot temperatures across the region
today and through Monday. Temperatures will generally be 102 to
109 today and a few more degree hotter tomorrow with Tucson
peaking at 112 degrees. This raises the HeatRisk for the region
into the Major category and the overnight temperatures only coming
down in the mid 70s for the areas Tucson west and upper 60s areas
east. Very little relief in the heat and as result an Extreme
Heat Warning is in effect for the rest of today and through Monday
evening. Stay hydrated; limit time outside in the hottest part of
the day, if possible; stay cool with a/c; and check on love ones
and neighbors! Resources: pima.gov/extremeheat (Cooling Center
locations) and weather.gov/tucson

There is a slight nudge of upper air moisture that can result in
high based dry thunderstorms on Sunday. A handful of convective
allowing models show a potential, although very small, for some
cloud build ups in Cochise County. The confidence is low, but a
non-zero chance for a dry lighting on Sunday afternoon. Model
skew-ts have the inverted V, but dry profile, for thunderstorm gusty
winds. HREF agrees as well on the thunderstorm gusts; it has 30
percent chance for thunderstorm gusts greater than 34 miles per
hour after 2 pm. The highest probability for any dry thunderstorm
will be 10 percent in the southeastern corner of Cochise County
and towards the Chiricahua Mountains.

A weak trough will be passing through later Monday and into
Tuesday. This will knock daytime temperatures by few degrees and
bringing the risk for heat down into the Moderate category by
Tuesday and Wednesday. This trough will bring stronger breezes and
increasing the risk for fire weather conditions especially in the
Gila River Valley area on tuesday. The latest NBM has 40-46%
chance for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph. Thus, coupled with the dry
conditions can result in critical fire weather conditions. SPC
Fire Weather has highlighted this risk as well.

In the late week, another hot day can be expected on Thursday
with increasing risk for heat. Heat headlines may follow soon if
the trend stays elevated. Then, monsoonal moisture will be slowly
creeping in and out to give a push for chances of precipitation
later in the following weekend.



&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
SKC through much of the period with FEW-SCT 10-12k ft AGL mainly
SE of KTUS between 14/20z and 15/05Z and again after 15/20z. A few
cloud build ups to towering cumulus can occur near the Chiricahua
Mountains between 15/20Z until 16/03Z. SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12
kts with gusts to around 20 kts and 12-16 kts with gusts to 25
kts at KSAD. SFC winds will be stronger tomorrow afternoon,
16/18Z, especially near KSAD. Otherwise, overnight winds will be
terrain driven and less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and hot conditions are expected across
southeast Arizona through early next week. Generally single digit
min RH values in the valleys, with mountain locations in the 10-18
percent range. There are slight chances (less than 10 percent)
for dry lightning Sunday afternoon in Southeast Cochise County.
These dry lightning chances can also bring erratic and gusty
winds of 30 mph or higher. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be 15 mph
or less from Tucson westward, with occasional afternoon/early
evening gusts to around 20 mph due to the strong surface heating.
East of Tucson, breezy afternoon and early evening 20-foot winds
are expected in the Gila River Valley on Sunday with peak wind
speeds of 12-18 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Expect similar to
slightly stronger speeds from Tucson eastward Monday and Tuesday
as a weak weather system moves through. The strongest winds will
again be in the upper Gila River valley near Safford, with the
possibility of a few hours of near critical to brief critical fire
weather conditions.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$


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