259
FXUS63 KUNR 132048
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
148 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry again on Friday

- Critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon across far
  southern South Dakota

- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper ridging across the western/central CONUS continues its slow
eastward progression while a trough/upper low sits just off the
Pacific coast. A broad surface trough is sitting across the CWA,
with SW winds over NE WY and SE winds over SCentral SD. Current
temps are in the 60s and lower 70s. Quiet weather will continue
tonight, but warm air advection will keep temps much warmer...upper
30s to low 50s. The warmest locations will be across the eastern
half of the foothills, where breezy downsloping winds are expected.
Highs on Friday are expected to be well into the 70s...especially
east of the Black Hills through SCentral SD. Can`t rule out a few
locations reaching into the lower 80s. Breezy westerly winds are
also expected. The ridge will break down during the day as an upper
low crosses central Canada. A shortwave will round the base of the
low, crossing the Dakotas Friday night. Approaching cold air
advection will push a cold front across the CWA Friday night, with
rain showers developing over NW SD. QPF will be light. Cooler, but
still above average temps are expected for the weekend, along with
dry weather. Upper ridging will develop across the western CONUS
late Sunday into Monday, but the aformentioned upper low off the
Pacific Coast will make its way across the Rockies into the central
to northern Plains on Monday. This will bring chances of precip to
the region, though the exact track still remains uncertain. Temps
look cold enough for some snow over the Black Hills and mostly rain
across the plains. However, this is still much uncertainty with any
particular solution. The GFS is the coldest solution and the only
one showing the possibility of accumulating snow in the plains. Will
keep an eye on this system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1006 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Gusty
southwest winds will develop this evening and continue through
Friday across northeastern Wyoming and portions of southwestern
South Dakota.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 146 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Warm air will work into the area tonight and Friday, bringing dry
and breezy conditions tomorrow. Across southwest to south central
South Dakota...relative humidity will drop to 15 to 20 percent.
Westerly winds will increase in the morning, with gusts to 25 to
35 mph continuing through the day. This will support critical
fire weather conditions across the area.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ to 5 PM MST /6 PM
     CST/ Friday for SDZ322-325-326-332>335.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...13