Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 251040

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
440 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022

Current surface map places low across eastern Kansas with weak
high pressure across the Dakotas. Scattered showers associated
with Central Plains upper low remain south and east of the
forecast area. Upper level ridge builds across the Northern Plains
today and Thursday with mid level subsidence and drying low
levels. Highs in the 60s today...climbing into the 70s/lower 80s
on Thursday.

Ridge breaks down Friday with initial impulse arriving Friday
evening. Surface cold front slides into the area late Friday
afternoon/evening. Thermal profiles support highs in the
80s/lower 90s ahead of the front. With narrow axis of buoyancy
along the front and sufficient shear, a few strong/marginally
severe thunderstorms are possible.

Large scale trough carves out over the western CONUS for the
holiday weekend with stalled baroclinic zone over the Central
Plains into the Dakotas. Several embedded impulses eject through
the Dakotas, resulting in a daily chance of showers/thunderstorms.
High PWATs, steep lapse rates, and training storms may result in
localized heavy rain. Some uncertainty with overall threat of
severe thunderstorms as best buoyancy/shear appears to be south
and east of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 440 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.




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