854
FXUS63 KUNR 090419
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1019 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather until later in the week.

- Elevated to critical fire conditions expected first half of the
  week.

- Increased precipitation chances later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Most Recent surface analysis shows low pressure over western
Nebraska this afternoon. At the upper levels, ridge sits over the
lee side of the Rockies into the northern and central plains,
while upper low sits off the New England region. Temperatures
currently sit in the 80s to low 90s, with light southerly winds.

Upper ridge will allow for warmer and dry conditions the first
half of the week, with highs in the 90s and low 100s for some
areas through Thursday. Vertically integrated smoke from western
wildfires is expected to move into the region this evening,
causing hazy skies. Have kept mention of smoke in the forecast
through Tuesday morning, though models hint that it may last
longer. Mostly dry conditions will dominate the first half of the
week, with the next chance for precipitation coming the latter
part of Wednesday, as the ridge slides east of the forecast area
and an upper low moves towards the Rockies. Chances for isolated
to scattered precipitation will continue Wed-Sat as the upper low
shifts northwest into Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1018 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening. Concentrations of haze/smoke will increase on Monday
from west to east, but significant reductions to visibility are
not anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 211 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Hot dry weather is expected through mid week, with high
temperatures in the 90s to around 100. Elevated fire weather
conditions can be expected through much of the week, with near
critical conditions possible Monday through Thursday as very dry
air moves back into the region, combined with hot temperatures and
breezy winds. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of
northeast WY and southwest SD Monday as RH will fall to around 10
percent with potentially breezy west to northwest winds.

Cooler temperatures with some precipitation chances are
anticipated late in the week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for SDZ322.
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for WYZ314-315-317.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...Dye