442
FXUS63 KUNR 081041
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
441 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions  to
start the week.

- Strong west to northwest winds Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation
  move in late Monday through mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Tonight Through Saturday)
Issued at 900 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show northwest flow over
the forecast area as mild troughing sits over the Great Lakes
region. 03Z surface analysis shows weak trough to our east as
surface high moves into western Wyoming this evening.

Winds have subsided a bit this evening, however will remain a bit
breezy overnight out of the west. Another hot day in store thermal
ridging moves in Sunday. Low level westerly winds usher in
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s during the afternoon. Good
mixing will bring gusty winds into the area for today, with some
areas seeing gusts up to 50 mph in the afternoon. Wind advisory
remains in affect for northwestern SD, and have added southwestern
Fall River county to the advisory.

Upper flow becomes more zonal on Monday, transitioning to
southwest flow late Monday into Tuesday, as weak upper trough
slides over the Rockies and into the northern plains. This will
result in cooler temperatures setting up for Tuesday, and
increasing chances for precipitation. Expect highs
Tuesday/Wednesday to be 20-25 degrees cooler than today and
Monday. Weak forcing with this trough will bring chances for light
rain/snow Monday night through Tuesday, with some light snow
accumulations possible over the Black Hills. Northwest flow
returns over the forecast area the latter half of the week, with
multiple weak disturbances bringing chances for light
precipitation closer to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 439 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty west
to northwest winds are expected today. The strongest winds will
be this afternoon over far northwestern SD plains and far
southwestern SD with gusts around 40-45kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 900 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
Sunday over the region. Strong west to northwest winds are
expected during the day, with gusts up to 50 mph possible over
parts of the western SD plains. RH`s are expected to dip in to the
upper teens over areas east and south of the Black hills,
resulting in near critical fire weather conditions. Elsewhere in
the plains, RH`s dropping to 20-25 percent along with gusty winds
will still pose elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for SDZ001-002-012-013-041-078.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...Dye