Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 142330
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
430 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

Current surface analysis shows surface trough over central SD,
with mild west to southwest winds across the area. Upper level
analysis shows low pressure over the lower MS river valley, with
positively tilted ridge over the Plains, and near zonal flow from
the west coast through the Rockies. Temps are in the mid 50s to
upper 60s, with breezy conditions from northeast WY to northwest
SD. Some thin high clouds are spilling south over the area this
afternoon.

After having temperatures peak today, a downward trend can be
expected through Saturday as a couple of cold fronts cross the area.
Lows tonight will be on the mild side, upper 20s to around 40, with
high clouds passing overhead. The first cold front will cross the
area during the day on Thursday, with northwesterly winds
increasing. The strongest winds will be across the SD plains, where
some wind gusts over 40 mph are expected. Will continue to monitor
winds for possible wind advisory over some areas Thursday afternoon.
Highs will be in the upper 40s and 50s, possibly around 60 over far
southern SD.

A stronger arctic front is then on track to slide south across the
area on Friday. This system will have some moisture and upper level
support to produce some light snow across much of the area as
frontogenesis band slides south behind the front. It still looks
like most areas of northeast WY and western SD will see up to an
inch or two of snowfall, but as front gets hung up along the lee of
the Rockies Friday night into Saturday, light snow could linger from
northeast WY to parts of southwest SD along tight baroclinic zone,
with some higher amounts possible.

Chilly arctic air will be in place for Saturday, with highs only in
the upper teens and 20s. The coldest air will only be short-lived
across the area, as a gradual warming trend takes place Sunday into
the first half of next week. Ridging returns to the Rockies region
during this time. Temperatures will rebound to near or above average
levels for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures could cool off some
for Thanksgiving Day as a cold front is progged to push through the
region around that time, but it does look like a mostly dry frontal
passage at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 429 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. Early Thursday
morning, a cold front will move through the Northern Plains
switching winds to the northwest. Wind gusts to 40kts are possible
by late morning into the afternoon hours, especially across the
northwest SD plains.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Johnson


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