371
FXUS65 KVEF 120841
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1241 AM PST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* High confidence that a trough of low pressure will bring gusty
  winds and increased precipitation chances to the region late
  Thursday through the weekend, but low confidence in details and
  impacts.

* Well above normal temperatures today and Thursday will become much
  colder temperatures by Saturday and continue into next week.

* The active but low confidence weather patten continues early
  next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

The latest runs of model and ensemble data continue to show drastic
changes in how the incoming upper level trough evolves and impacts
the region. Today should remain low impact and dry then after that
it`s more unknown. Was hoping to see some run to run or model to
model consistency to increase confidence so I could better
communicate impacts and make headline (or no headline) decisions-
but that has not happened unfortunately. Not only has the system
slowed down (again), but the way the low center deepens, cuts off,
and shifts through the Southwest US looks like a completely
different system then when this forecaster put together yesterday`s
forecast. In addition- snow levels have come in much high as the
continued southerly flow due to the slower, deeper system pumps
warmer air into the region. Considered doing something with the
Winter Storm Watch in the Sierra that starts Thursday morning, but
will give it one more model run to hopefully better identify snow
and impact timing and elevations (though of note: Thursday morning
start time is likely too early as HREF members model reflectivity
don`t bring anything into the Sierra until at least Thursday evening
and keeps much of the region dry). Winds on Thursday will increase
in response to increasing pressure gradient. Widespread southwest
gusts to 25-35 MPH likely. The potential exists for higher gusts to
40 MPH and wind impacts in the Western Mojave Desert through central
Nye County, however probabilities for gusts over 40 MPH have been
decreasing and it may be a limited time for these gusts which would
limit impacts. This along with the overall uncertainty with this
system, held off on issuing any Wind Advisories as confidence is too
low winds will reach impactful levels. After Thursday, winds should
be lighter as the low center moves in and the pressure gradient
decreases. The latest forecast is slower to spread precipitation
chances across the region Thursday night and Friday, and now has the
highest chance and rainfall amounts Saturday. EFIs suggest anomalous
rainfall amounts at times late Friday through Sunday as PWATs climb
to 200%+ of normal Friday and are now forecasted to remain around
this level through the weekend. Large spreads between 25th and 75th
rain totals continues to be highlighted by ensmebles for most
locations, but will need to monitor the potential for heavy rain
impacts. The situation remains dynamic so check back for forecast
updates as hopefully this system starts to show itself a bit better.

As the trough moving into the region, a sharp cool down is expected.
Today and (now with the slower arrival of the trough) Thursday
should remain mild before colder temperatures arrive. High
temperatures drop 10 to 15 degrees between Thursday to Saturday-
going from 8-10 degrees above normal to 5-10 degrees below normal.
Below normal temperatures will then likely continue through the
weekend into the beginning of next week.

The active weather pattern continues Sunday into early next week,
but models show a wide variety of solutions as the first cut off low
exits then another West Coast trough moves in behind it. Additional
precipitation chances and impactful winds are possible Sunday
through the beginning of next week but low confidence in what occurs
and when.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Light winds under 8KT favoring typical wind directions are
expected through the period with winds transitioning back to the
southwest around sunset. VFR conditions are expected as with BKN
clouds around 25kft and SCT-BKN clouds lowering to 15kft-20kft
overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Expect winds to follow
typical patterns across the region through Wednesday, with the
exception of KBIH where south winds to around 10-12 knots are
expected after 19z. BKN-OVC clouds around 25kft will lower to around
15kft-20kft this evening and overnight. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Gorelow

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