997
FXUS65 KVEF 271014
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
314 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the end
  forecast period, with dangerous and potentially record breaking
  temperatures expected beginning Thursday.

* Convective activity will be limited to Mohave County through
  Tuesday, with things drying out during the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday..

Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the end of
July and into early August as ridging remains the dominant synoptic
feature across the Southwestern US. During the second half of the
week, this ridge will begin to shift to the west, settling
directly overhead over the weekend. As this ridge retrogrades, we
will see 500 mb heights increase, allowing for temperatures to
take off, with the hottest temperatures of the year on tap for the
region over the weekend. Not only will these temperatures be the
hottest of the year, they will also be dangerous and potentially
record breaking, yielding widespread Major-to-Extreme HeatRisk
(Levels 3 and 4 of 4, respectively) Thursday through Sunday.
Afternoon high temperatures will top out around 7 to 10 degrees
above normal. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to 100 degree range across the lower elevations of the Mojave
Desert, providing little-to-no relief from the heat. For more
information regarding exactly which records are in jeopardy later
this week, see the CLIMATE section below.

Monsoonal convection will remain confined to the eastern portions of
Mohave County, where there is around 10 to 20% chance of isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the higher terrain this afternoon and
again tomorrow afternoon. Localized moderate-to-heavy rain,
lightning, erratic outflow winds, and isolated flash flooding are
all threats on the table should these storms become strong enough.
However, with moisture dwindling and nothing to provide lift besides
daytime heating, storms will struggle to grow and maintain
themselves should they move off the terrain. Beyond Tuesday, things
will dry out across southeastern California, southern Nevada, and
northwestern Arizona as the ridge retrogrades and temperatures heat
back up.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
south-southwest winds continue through the overnight hours,
increasing later this morning. Gusts 15-25 knots through the
afternoon and early evening hours, falling back below 10 knots
after sunset. VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period
with FEW to SCT clouds at or above 12kft. Temperatures will
exceed 100F from 16z to 05z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Relatively light
winds, 12 knots or less, will follow typical diurnal directional
trends through late morning/early afternoon when southerly to
westerly breezes will pick up across the region. Gusts in most
locations will be around 15-25 knots, with winds subsiding after
sunset. Isolated afternoon convection possible, mainly in eastern
Mohave County. FEW to SCT clouds at or above 12kft.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           THU, JUL 30  FIR, JUL 31  SAT, AUG 1   SUN, AUG 2
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     114(1978)*   115(1978)*   116(1979)*   115(1979)*
Bishop        105(2020)*   109(2000)*   108(2020)*   108(2020)*
Needles       120(2020)    121(2020)*   121(1993)*   120(1993)
Daggett       114(2000)    113(2020)*   115(1995)*   117(1986)*
Kingman       110(2020)    112(2020)    106(2020)*   105(1918)*
Desert Rock   109(2000)    109(1996)*   109(1993)*   109(1993)*
Death Valley  127(1995)    125(2020)*   127(2017)*   126(1993)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      THU, JUL 30  FIR, JUL 31  SAT, AUG 1   SUN, AUG 2
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     89(2019)*    88(2020)*    92(2020)*    91(2024)*
Bishop        72(2022)     67(2018)     71(2007)     71(2007)
Needles       94(2019)     94(1925)     95(1969)     92(1980)*
Daggett       86(2016)     85(2018)     84(2000)*    83(2018)*
Kingman       83(1972)     83(1914)*    82(1914)*    82(2008)*
Desert Rock   81(2015)     82(2016)     83(2000)*    86(2000)
Death Valley  103(2018)    103(2018)    106(1920)    100(2024)*

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/CLIMATE...Stessman


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