653
FXUS65 KVEF 101711
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
910 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures are expected
  across the region through the middle of the week.

* A trough of low pressure will bring gusty winds, cooler
  temperatures, and increased precipitation chances to the region
  late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

Ridging currently sitting over the region will remain in place
through about Wednesday, resulting in dry and low impact weather.
High temperatures through Wednesday will run 8-10 degrees above
normal.

The weather pattern will drastically change the second half of the
week with increasing consensus across models that a deep West Coast
trough will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and increasing
chances for precipitation. Despite high confidence that a trough
will impact the region, details remain low as the system itself is
still 4+ days away. Precipitation should overspread the region
Wednesday night and Thursday as moisture increases on southwest
flow, then continue at times into at least Friday night. Thursday
afternoon and night should have the highest and most widespread
chances as PWATs increase to 150%-200% of normal, however amounts
remain uncertain with a significant spread in QPF between the 10th
and 90th percentile. The best chances for impactful snow will be in
the Sierra above 7000ft where there are high probabilities for
moderate snow impacts on WPC`s Probabilistic WSSI. Will need to
watch how quickly precipitation exits versus snow levels dropping
as well as how much moisture sneaks in from the southwest on a
weak IVT plume, which could result in more snow and some
accumulation in areas like the Spring Mountains and the terrain
of the Southern Great Basin. Currently, Probabilistic WSSI only
highlights chances for minor impacts in these areas outside of the
Sierra. Gusty southwest winds are likely Thursday and Friday as
the pressure gradient increases ahead of the trough axis, with
widespread 50%+ probabilities for impactful wind gusts over 40 MPH
on Thursday, then lingering on Friday in parts of the Western
Mojave Desert into the Colorado River Valley. Finally, a sharp
cool down is expected as the trough moves in- high temperatures 10
to 15 degrees from Thursday to Friday and will remain below
normal through the weekend. With such a dynamic system, will be
interesting to what hi-res models and shorter range ensembles show
which will help fine tune the need for products as well as better
define impacts. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Light winds under 8KT favoring typical wind directions are
expected through the period. Light winds this morning will
transition to more of a northeast-east direction this afternoon then
transition back to the southwest around sunset. VFR conditions are
expected, with mostly clear skies today then increasing clouds at
20kft-25kft tonight into Tuesday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Other than some elevated
winds down the Colorado River Valley this morning through the
afternoon, expect light winds to follow typical patterns through the
period. Speeds should remain under 10KT areawide other than the
previously mentioned north winds as speeds around 10KT and isolated
gusts to 20KT are expected in the Colorado River Valley through
about 00Z tonight. High clouds will spread across the region this
afternoon from west to east with most areas seeing BKN clouds 20k-
25k by this evening and overnight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Gorelow

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