249
FXUS61 KBUF 291736
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
136 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Record warmth possible today.

2)A chance of showers tonight. Dry weather then resumes Friday and
lasts through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warmth possible today.

Mild, potentially record breaking (see climate section) and dry
today ahead of an incoming cold front. Winds will pick up today as a
strengthening low-level jet of 35 to 45 knot moves over the eastern
Great Lakes. That said...poor low level lapse rates will prevent
full mixing of stronger winds from aloft, but channeling down Lake
Erie may still support gusts of 30-40 mph across the Niagara
Frontier in the afternoon. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected
elsewhere. Otherwise...another mild day with Max T`s peaking in the
low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance of showers tonight. Dry weather then
resumes Friday and lasts through the weekend.

A weak cold front will begin to cross the eastern Great Lakes
late this evening and tonight. Decent forcing and moisture
convergence will likely support some showers and maybe even a
rumble of thunder as guidance shows MUCAPE values of 150-200
J/kg. Precipitation wise, amounts look very meager with most
spots only picking up a few hundredths of an inch, with localize
higher amounts. Showers will exit before daybreak Friday, with
high pressure then building back into the region later Friday
through the weekend with another extended stretch of dry
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Southwest winds gust 20-30kts today ahead of a cold front moving
in from the northwest. Cold front brings showers with
vis/ceilings down to MVFR generally after 23Z. Visibilities
improve to VFR after showers exit to the southeast while
ceilings linger in MVFR through sunrise Friday.

Outlook...

Friday...After MVFR ceilings dissolve/lift, VFR expected.

Saturday through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will pick up today ahead of a cold front nearing the
Lower Lakes. Small Craft conditions are likely to develop on Lake
Erie and the western portion of Lake America by this afternoon.
Winds will veer to the northwest tonight through Friday behind the
cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for
eastern portion of Lake America, especially in the nearshore
zones east of Hamlin Beach. Winds and wave action will gradually
subside Friday as high pressure begins to build in from the
west. Light winds and waves expected Saturday as the surface
high moves overhead.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
MARINE...