094
FXUS61 KBUF 030712
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
212 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a few lake effect snow showers northeast of the lakes
this morning, mainly dry conditions and breezy winds are expected
for most of the day today. A pair of cold fronts will track across
the area this evening and then later tonight. Lake enhanced/effect
snow will develop northeast of the lakes ahead of the fronts and
then shift east and then southeast of the lakes late tonight and
through the day on Thursday. A burst of heavy snow will be possible
for most areas along the second and stronger cold frontal passage
during early to mid morning hours across the area. Lake effect snow
showers off the lakes will taper off during the second half of the
day on Thursday and drier weather will return for a few days
starting Thursday night. Below to well below normal temperatures are
expected to continue into at least the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions early this morning, with light winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area.

As winds shift to the southwest this morning a few lake effect snow
showers will develop northeast of both lakes. These snow showers are
expected to move across these areas over a few hours and cause
minimal accumulations of a coating. There will be a lull in the
lake snow showers during the late morning and early afternoon. The
first of a pair of cold fronts will approach the region this
afternoon and early evening and out ahead of this front winds will
start to increase out of the southwest. As this front approaches and
a shortwave trough cross the area, combined with cool temperatures
aloft, lake enhanced/effect snow is expected to redevelop northeast
of both lakes this evening. While it looks like the snow will occur
mainly after the evening commute, there is a chance that the start
of the snow could impact the later portion of the evening commute.
Snowfall amounts through the evening northeast of the lakes of 1 to
3 inches expected with some higher amounts possible as well.

Winds will shift more toward the west behind the first passing cold
front, which will shift the lake effect snow off of each lake
southward overnight tonight, focusing the snow on areas east of the
lakes. The lake snow northeast of Lake Ontario may linger long
enough in place to require a Winter Weather Advisory with the
potential for 3 to 6 inches of additional snow to fall, but there is
still some uncertainty in timing of the wind shift. 1 to 3 inches of
snow is possible east of Lake Erie overnight tonight, most of which
will fall south of the earlier evening snow. The second and stronger
cold front will cross the area around daybreak on Thursday, causing
brief widespread moderate to heavy snow with snow squall like
properties as it crosses the area. A widespread quick inch or two
is expected as the front crosses the area.

Thursday, morning snow along the front will transition to lake
effect snow, focusing on areas southeast of the lakes as winds shift
to the northwest through the day. 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected
for areas east-southeast of Lake Ontario before the lake effect
shifts south, where an additional 1 to 2 inches is possible along
the south shore of Lake Ontario. Southeast of Lake Erie, an
additional 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible on Thursday behind
the passing cold front. Lake effect snow will taper off from west to
east through the second half of the day on Thursday as ridging
increases and drier air moves into the region. A few snow showers
will linger into the early evening on Thursday for areas southeast
of Lake Ontario.

Winds today through Thursday will gust to the 30 to 35 mph range,
with some locally higher gusts possible. This will increase the
potential for blowing snow and reduced visibilities for areas that
receive snow during the period.

Temperatures will remain below normal today with highs in the upper
20s to mid 30s for most areas. Temperatures cool further for
Thursday behind the passing cold fronts, with highs only in the low
20s to near 30, which will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal for most
areas. For reference, with the 850H temperatures forecast to cool to
around -18C by Thursday afternoon, these values will approach the
coldest 850H temperatures measured at KBUF for 12/4, per the
SPC sounding archive.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Heading into Thursday night, an exiting trough across the Northeast
will pull east into the northern Atlantic, resulting in deeper
moisture being stripped away from the region. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure and ridging will build in across the region from the
Ohio Valley. The combination of the exiting moisture and the
subsidence and dry air from the entering ridge, will support ongoing
lake effect southeast of the lakes to diminish Thursday night with
dry weather to prevail through Friday.

Surface high pressure will then exit off the East Coast Friday
night, supporting mainly dry weather to prevail through at least the
first half of the night. For the later half of Friday night and
through Saturday, southwest winds will develop, this combined with
and incoming mid-level trough and associated strong surface cold
front will support lake effect snow showers to develop northeast of
the lakes.

The aforementioned cold front will then cross the area late Saturday
and Saturday night, introducing another shot of colder air into the
region. Overall, ongoing lake effect snow northeast of the lakes
will shift south-southeast of the lakes by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the wake of the cold frontal passage Saturday night, cold
northwest winds will support light lingering lake effect snow
showers southeast of the lakes Sunday into Sunday night. Surface
high pressure will build into the region later Sunday night through
Monday, supporting dry air and subsidence to spill across the
region, ending lake effect activity. The next clipper-type system
will dive southeast across the Great Lakes Monday night through
Tuesday, supporting the chance for snow to return to the region.

Below normal temperatures will continue through the start of the new
work week.
.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A several hour period of VFR cigs is possible early this morning as
winds become southwesterly and advect an area of clearing in the low-
level deck over southern Ontario Province into the region.
Confidence is low in the timing and duration as this area may fill
back in as it arrives.

Any diminishing lake snows will completely taper off by this
afternoon, though MVFR cigs will likely linger northeast of the
lakes after snow showers taper off. The quieter weather will be
short-lived as another wave of low pressure approaches from the
northwest, causing the lake-response to re-intensify northeast of
the lakes. This is expected to begin occurring this evening with
increasing chances for MVFR/IFR vsbys and cigs, possibly briefly
lower.

Tonight, lake effect snow northeast of the lakes slowly shift to the
east of the lakes as a cold front tracks through the region. A
secondary and stronger cold front will cross the region closer to
daybreak Thursday morning, which will then push lake effect more to
the southeast of the lakes later in the morning/day Thursday. Snow
will be moderate to heavy at times within the lake effect and with
the passing cold front where snow squall like conditions will be
possible. MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGs will be persistent within the lake
effect, with further reductions to LIFR expected at times and even
brief periods of LIFR possible, especially with the passing front
toward daybreak on Thursday.

Gusty winds of 30 to 35 knots will be possible at times today
through Thursday, with blowing snow and greatly reduced VSBYs will
be possible at times.

Outlook...

Thursday morning...MVFR/IFR in snow showers after the cold front
crosses the area. Local lake enhanced snow east/northeast of the
lake may produce brief bursts of heavier snow and LIFR.

Thursday afternoon...VFR/MVFR in most areas, with local lake effect
snow and IFR southeast of the lakes.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
A pair of cold fronts will cross the lower Great Lakes tonight.
Southwest winds will increase today ahead of the front, then veer to
west and northwest behind the front late tonight and Thursday,
producing a round of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
         Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM
         EST Thursday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
         Friday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
         Friday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...PP/SW
MARINE...Hitchcock