474
FXUS61 KBUF 052353
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
753 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The risk for severe thunderstorms has been greatly reduced this
evening. A soaking rain may cause areas of ponding or localized
flooding in flood prone areas into Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A widespread, soaking rainfall will continue into Wednesday.

2) Pattern becomes cool through late week and active through at
least the weekend.

3) Frost possible Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A widespread, soaking rainfall will continue
into Wednesday.

A wave of low pressure will move along a slow moving cold front
tonight. An influx of moisture will move along the front and
steady rain will continue across the region tonight. The front
will stall in the vicinity of the Finger Lakes into Wednesday.
The front and steady rain will start to shift east as the wave
of low pressure tracks northeast and as a trough pushes into the
region. Rain will taper off from west to east through the
morning on Wednesday. With the front stalled the longest from
the Western Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and to the North
Country, these areas will have the greatest rainfall amounts of
1.00-1.50", with some areas closer to 2.00" possible. Lower
rainfall amounts below 1.00" will be possible for areas of the
Niagara Frontier, closer to Lake Ontario. Due to the saturated
ground, rainfall amounts may produce areas of ponding or
localized flooding in flood prone areas. Rivers and creeks will
see rises through Friday, however most are expected to stay
well below action stages.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pattern becomes cool through late week and active
through at least the weekend.

After the cold front finally moves through, cooler temperatures are
expected through the end of the work week and periods of showers
will be possible at times through at least the weekend. A large
trough will remain over the eastern third of North America with
shortwave troughs and sfc lows tracking within the larger trough
over the region, increasing the potential for showers at times.
Temperatures for Wednesday through Friday will be well below normal
with highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Model certainty with respect to rain still remain a bit low as
guidance does have some disagreement with the passing troughs/lows,
but the next slug of rain looks like it will go through on Friday
night into Saturday morning. Another potential for showers can be
expected for Mothers Day as a cold front tracks across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Frost possible Thursday night.

Cold air advection behind the passing cold front will cool
temperatures through end of the week. The coolest temperatures
associated with this airmass is expected to occur Thursday night
with lows forecast to drop to the low to upper 30s. Frost may form
on Thursday night for areas where clearing in the clouds occur
develop and where winds weaken, allowing for radiational cooling.
There still remain uncertainty in how cloudy it will be, and thus
prevent frost formation and allow temperatures to remain slightly
warmer than currently expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong but slow-moving and wavy cold front will gradually slide
southeast across the eastern Great Lakes this evening through the
overnight hours. Rain will continue into Wednesday.

VFR/MVFR flight conditions will deteriorate to IFR or below with
increasing moisture, light winds, and steady rain across the region
tonight. Vsbys are expected to be variable between 3-5SM, however
below 3SM is possible in heavier rain overnight.

Coverage of rain showers will taper off from roughly northwest to
southeast through the course of the day Wednesday as the front
clears the region. Cigs will lag behind though gradually improve
back to MVFR and VFR in the afternoon with some breaks in the lower
cloud deck possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. Areas of MVFR across the higher
terrain south of KROC and KBUF.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers across the Southern
Tier.

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions possible with increasing
chances for showers in the afternoon both days, though especially
Saturday.

Sunday...Mainly VFR to begin the day. Restrictions possible in the
afternoon and evening with chances for showers increasing.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will continue to subside on the waters this
evening. Small Craft Advisories are expected to end across the
waters this evening.

Light winds and gentle waves are expected on the waters through
Wednesday night. Winds will freshen on the lakes Thursday and
Friday, creating choppy conditions. At this time, conditions
look under small craft thresholds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LOZ044-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/SW
AVIATION...HSK/PP
MARINE...HSK