561
FXUS61 KBUF 282017
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
317 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air flowing across the open waters of the lower Great Lakes
will continue to support localized heavy lake effect snow east and
southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario through tonight, along with
gusty winds that will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Lake snows will weaken later tonight into Saturday morning as
transient high pressure crosses the area bringing a brief period of
mainly dry weather on Saturday, before another area of low pressure
brings a round of light rain and snow, along with breezy to windy
conditions later Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT...

Cool, moist cyclonic west to west-northwest flow in the wake of an
earlier cold frontal passage will continue to move across the
relatively warmer lake waters producing heavy lake effect snow that
will remain focused east and southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
into tonight. Strong winds will continue to gust 30 to 40 mph across
the region through this evening, with a few gusts up to 45 mph
through the early evening. Winds will then slowly come down through
the overnight. Surface high pressure will approach the region from
the south tonight and snow showers will diminish in coverage and
intensity through Saturday.

Off Lake Erie...A strong upstream connection to Lake Huron continues
this afternoon with a spray of lake effect snow showers impacting
the warning areas south of Buffalo that will continue through this
evening. Snowfall rates will average one inch per hour. Additional
localized snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected across
southern Erie, southwest Wyoming and the western Southern Tier
through late this evening. A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in
effect until 1 AM tonight. Outside of the warning area, snow showers
are possible and may produce very minor accumulations through early
evening. Snow showers diminish in coverage and intensity tonight and
come to an end Saturday morning.

Off Lake Ontario...A strong upstream connection to Georgian Bay will
continue to foster a well-organized band of lake effect snow off the
southeast end of the Lake, with localized 2+ inch per hour snowfall
rates possible at times within the heart of this band as it
oscillates ever so slightly back and forth across northeastern
Wayne, northern Cayuga, and far southern Oswego counties. A few
rumbles of thunder will also be possible through early this evening
in these areas. The edge of the band will continue to intermittently
brush the southern shore of Lake Ontario from Orleans to Monroe at
times into the evening, possibly producing as additional inch or
two, mainly closer to the lakeshore. Upslope snow showers will
continue on the Tug Hill. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 14
inches are possible southeast of Lake Ontario, with 4 to 7 inches on
the Tug Hill. The lake effect band will weaken later tonight through
Saturday morning.

Otherwise, areas of more generalized lighter snow showers will
continue outside of lake effect areas through sunset or so, with
only very minor, if any accumulation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another low pressure system advances northeast towards the central
Great Lakes Saturday night, then passes by to our west and northwest
on Sunday. Warm frontal precipitation will overspread the Lower Lakes
Saturday night bringing some widespread light accumulating snow to
the area. It will then potentially transition over to a mix of rain-
snow Sunday, especially for lower elevations as boundary layer temps
rise into the mid-upper 30s to low 40s.

In terms of snowfall amounts...1-3" possible across most of the
area, with the potential for 3-5" for the higher terrain of the Tug
Hill.

The sfc low exits northeast off into southwest Quebec by Sunday
evening with CAA behind the systems passing cold front dropping H850
T`s down to -10C to -13C overnight.

Lake effect wise...it looks like we will have a `narrow` window for
accumulating snows Sunday evening/night. Initially northeast of both
lakes and then east to southeast of the lakes as wind flow quickly
veers from the southwest to the west and then to the west-northwest.
High pressure rapidly building in and also a drier airmass advecting
into the region will then begin to limit snowfall accumulations
Monday morning as the lake responses off of both lakes weakens.

With the area of high pressure centered over the region on Monday
any lingering snow showers off of the lakes will continue to scatter
out through the morning. Other than the few lingering lake effect
snow showers, the rest of the forecast area will remain dry for
Monday.

Temperatures for Monday behind the passing front are expected to
only reach the mid 20s to low 30s for most areas, with a few low 20s
possible for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave cutting across the nations mid-section and gulf moisture
will potentially work in concert to spawn a coastal low Monday night
through Tuesday. However...model certainty still remains high as
some guidance show the low further off the coast, but the
possibility for the northwestern precipitation shield to cross the
area is still present. This system exits off to our northeast
Wednesday, with a brief break ahead of the next cold front which
brings in a much colder airmass to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue east and southeast of the lakes
through the evening, with the heaviest snow southeast of the lakes
where more organized bands are expected to linger. Within the
heavier lake bands, expect IFR with brief LIFR conditions for both
VSBY & CIGs. Outside of the heavier lake snow bands conditions will
improve to IFR/MVFR where lighter snow is present within the outer
edge of the lake bands. Areas that stay completely snow free or
where breaks in the lake snow occurs will improve to MVFR/VFR
conditions. Higher terrain areas with lake effect snow/clouds can
also expected additional lowering of CIGs. Gusty winds in the 30 to
40 kt range can be expected through the afternoon and into the early
evening before weakening, especially for areas south of Lake
Ontario. A few higher gusts to as highs as 45 kts will be possible
near Lake Erie.

Tonight, reductions to IFR and brief LIFR will continue within lake
bands southeast of both lakes, with improving conditions outside of
the lake bands to VFR. Upsloping across the higher terrain downwind
of the lakes will also lower CIGs at times as well from lake clouds.
Winds this evening and into tonight will lower to 20 kts or lower
for most areas, with the strongest gusts remaining near the lake
shores. Lake effect snow overall will start to weaken later in the
night, especially off of Lake Erie, so slow improvements in lake
effect areas will also occur.

Saturday, mainly MVFR and VFR conditions, though some IFR conditions
will be possible early with lingering lake snow, mainly off of Lake
Ontario. As winds shift more to the south through the day, earlier
lake clouds that linger will push north, potentially causing
lowering CIGs at times across much of the area, mainly to MVFR.

Outlook...

Saturday night...light snow pushes into the area from west to east
through the night causing lowering CIGs and VSBYs to MVFR/IFR.

Sunday...MVFR with a rain/wet snow mix. Very windy.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in limited lake effect snow east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow showers.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some scattered snow showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A deep area of low pressure will slowly move through central and
eastern Quebec through this evening, keeping this extended period of
gales intact through very late today into this evening on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
found on the Niagara River. Winds will diminish below gales on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario later this evening, with winds then slowly
lessening through the overnight hours before dropping off Saturday
as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Another strong low pressure system is forecast to move across the
central Great Lakes Sunday. This may bring another round of gales to
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ004>006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ007-
     008-012-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...AR/SW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...HSK/JM