Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
497 FXUS61 KBUF 281805 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 205 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Day to day warming and mostly dry weather are expected through the weekend. 2) A change in the weather pattern next week will bring warmer, more humid conditions along with chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Day to day warming and mostly dry weather are expected through the weekend. Surface high pressure will move overhead tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds during this time of year will likely result in patchy to areas of fog across the western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes region, and portions of the Black River valley tonight. Cool tonight with lows in the 40s to low 50s. The surface high will move east of the region Saturday. Warm and dry weather is expected. Key Message 2...A change in the weather pattern next week will bring warmer, more humid conditions along with chances for showers and thunderstorms. An upper level ridge will expand eastward across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region early next week. The mean 500mb height pattern suggests that the flow may begin as zonal on Sunday then veer more northwest Monday and Tuesday. Upstream convection may be able to reach the forecast area as early as Sunday, with low chances of precipitation across the Niagara Frontier and the Saint Lawrence Valley. A frontal boundary is expected to move into the region Monday through Tuesday and will likely be the focus of additional showers and thunderstorms. Deep moisture and the potential for rounds of thunderstorms could result in heavy rainfall for some locations. Warmer, more humid conditions are likely across the region. The LREF mean 850mb temperatures show temperatures in the 90th percentile across western NY Monday and across the entire forecast area Tuesday. While there remains a high uncertainty regarding cloud cover and precipitation, daytime highs are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday to widespread 80s Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR flight conditions through through this evening. Much of the lingering low level strato-cu in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage have eroded across most areas south of Lake Ontario as drier air associated with high pressure to the west continues to filter in across the region. Some BKN MVFR/low VFR strato-cu decks still linger east of Lake Ontario (KART), however these decks will continue to scatter out there as well through the afternoon. VFR will prevail in most areas tonight. Clear skies and light winds will allow some patchy fog to develop again overnight, especially across the Southern Tier Valleys, however there will also be some fog potential for the Finger Lakes region and North Country with localized IFR VSBY after 06Z...especially in and around the KJHW airfield. Following any localized flight restrictions in fog to start off Saturday morning, widespread VFR flight conditions will prevail through Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night and Sunday...Dry and mainly VFR. River valley fog with local IFR possible later Saturday night into the start of Sunday morning across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. Brief, localized flight restrictions possible within any heavier shower or storm. && .MARINE... Winds and waves will diminish on the Lakes this afternoon. The surface high will gradually drift off the New England coast Saturday, with light winds on the lakes. Southwest winds will increase somewhat by Sunday into the 10-15 knot range with a chop developing on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...JM MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK