028
FXUS61 KBUF 070622
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
122 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will cross our region today, spreading a
widespread, but light snow across our region. Much colder air behind
this system will send overnight lows down into the single digits for
much of the region this as the light snow tapers off through the
early part of tonight. A few lake effect streamers of snow are
possible south of Lake Ontario Monday morning, otherwise a cold
start to the week with highs struggling to rise out of the teens.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not much on radar this early morning as a cold front has slipped
south of our region and mid level drying through the snow DGZ has
ended any lingering light snow. A surface wave along the front will
return light snow to our region later this morning.

A shortwave trough over the Central Great lakes this morning will
return mid level moisture to our region, supporting all snow for
this next event. Snow will spread across our region late this
morning and early afternoon, with the more widespread and greater
snowfall amounts found east of Lake Ontario which will lie under the
deeper moisture and closer to the lift ahead of the shortwave
trough. Shallower moisture and away from the broad scale lift of the
mid level shortwave, the southern Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes and
well inland Southern Tier will feature just flurries to light snow.

Overall snow totals will be minor with around an inch for WNY, and
up to two inches on the hills south of Buffalo. Not as much snow for
the downslope areas of the southern Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes, but
east of Lake Ontario where the light snow will persist the longest
up to 4 inches may be found over the Tug Hill today through late
this evening.

Snow tapers off from west to east through the evening hours, coupled
with the passage of the shortwave trough. Lingering low level
moisture may leave fine snowflakes over the upslope regions of SW
NYS and east of Lake Ontario, that will transition to lake effect
flurries south of Lake Ontario within a very cold airmass. Lows
tonight will reach single digits for many, while some clearing late
tonight will allow for sub zero readings for the North County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of Sunday`s system...lingering cold northerly upslope
flow and low level moisture intersecting the dendritic snow growth
zone will help to keep some flurries/scattered light snow showers
going south of the lakes (particularly Lake Ontario) Monday
morning...before these diminish Monday afternoon as the 850 mb ridge
axis finally builds across our region. Otherwise Monday will easily
feature our coldest daytime highs of the young winter season so
far...with max temps only expected to range from the upper teens
across the North Country and higher terrain south of Lake Ontario to
the lower 20s elsewhere. Good radiational cooling under lingering
surface based ridging will then allow readings to tumble into the
single digits to around 10 above south of Lake Ontario and to below
zero across portions of the North Country Monday evening...with
temps then slowly rising from west to east overnight as a southerly
return flow develops on the backside of the departing ridge.

On Tuesday the low level ridge will slide off the Atlantic
coastline...while yet another fast-moving shortwave trough and
modest surface low make their way from the Upper Great Lakes to
southern Ontario...with the latter feature pushing a trailing warm
front into our area in the process. Isentropic upglide/DCVA and
increasing moisture out ahead of these features will help to
generate scattered to numerous snow showers across the area between
late Tuesday morning and especially Tuesday afternoon...with pcpn
chances highest near the Canadian border and lowest across interior
portions of the Finger Lakes. Accums from these still look to be
light and on the order of an inch or less in most places...with
perhaps up to 2 inches east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise the warm
advection pattern will result in high temps climbing back into the
lower to mid 30s...though it will feel colder owing to an increasing
southerly wind that will gust to 25-35 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rather active/progressive pattern looks to continue through this
period with a veritable parade of shortwaves/attendant surface lows
continuing to cross our region...with Tuesday`s weak system quickly
being followed by another...stronger surface low Tuesday night and
Wednesday...with a couple more systems then following between Friday
and Saturday.

Diving more into the details...the snow showers from Tuesday`s
surface low/warm front will barely have a chance to exit our area
Tuesday evening...before more widespread pcpn associated with the
next surface low arrives for the second half of Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The 12z operational runs of the GEM/GFS/ECWMF have
converged a little more on the track of this next system and
generally now take it somewhere between a southern Georgian Bay-
Ottawa Valley axis and Lake Ontario...though it remains to be seen
whether this better consistency will last given both the still-
somewhat distant time frame and differences in track seen up through
last night. The exact track of the low will heavily influence just
how much of a warmup (and consequently the pcpn types) we`ll
see...as well as the potential for any stronger winds. A more
northern track would allow for a stronger warmup and more of a
changeover to plain rain for a time on Wednesday along with a
greater chance of stronger winds...while a more southerly track
would support colder temps/more snow and a lower wind potential. For
now have continued to lean toward recent trends/continuity...which
suggest snow Tuesday night changing to a mix of mainly lower
elevation rain and higher elevation rain/snow during Wednesday.

In the wake of this system...a shot of colder air should then change
any lingering pcpn back to snow and bring at least some limited lake
effect snow potential to areas downwind of the lakes later Wednesday
night into Thursday. The next surface low then looks to pass by to
our south Friday while bringing the chance of a more general
snowfall...with even colder air and another weak system then
forecast to arrive for the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS VFR to higher terrain MVFR ceiling heights are
found, with little precipitation as mid level drying through the
snow DGZ has all but ended the light snow. A weak surface low
approaching us from the Midwest will return light snow to our region
late this morning and through the afternoon hours. While snow will
be light, it will likely bring a small period of IFR flight
conditions...persisting longest east of Lake Ontario (KART).

Behind the shortwave trough, snow will taper off through the early
evening hours for the western TAF sites, and mid overnight east of
Lake Ontario, however winds will increase in speed a bit with cold
air advection with light northwest gusts around 20 knots tonight.

Drier air will end the bulk of the precipitation by late tonight,
though a cold flow over the warm Lake Ontario waters may bring
shallow lake effect streamers off Lake Ontario, possibly impacting
KROC with brief MVFR flight conditions.

Outlook...

Monday...Lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with
localized MVFR possible.

Tuesday...VFR to IFR with light snow, possibly mixing with rain
Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers, breezy.

Thursday...VFR, with MVFR/IFR in scattered to numerous snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have diminished enough to also allow waves to fall below small
craft criteria this morning, with all small craft advisories
ending.

A weak area of low pressure passing through the Lower Lakes today
will likely again bring small craft conditions, this on a northwest
flow this afternoon and overnight. Additional round of small crafts
for the eastern Great Lakes, and lower Niagara River.

High pressure builds east late Sunday night into  Monday across the
lakes, with lighter winds and diminishing wave action.

Looking a bit further out two shortwave troughs will pass over the
eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, with a stronger and lower
LLJ Wednesday. Southwest flow may reach gale force on the Lower
Great Lakes, especially Lake Erie...with Wednesday the better time
period for these stronger winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas