546
FXUS61 KBUF 022354
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
654 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief period of limited lake effect snow showers south of the
lakes may adding another coating of snow this evening across
portions of western NY. A few more localized lake effect snow
showers may briefly develop near Buffalo and Watertown Wednesday
morning with minimal accumulation. A strong cold front will then
cross the region Wednesday night through early Thursday, with a
brief burst of lake enhanced snow developing northeast and east of
the lakes. Limited lake effect snow showers will continue Thursday
through Thursday night southeast of the lakes before mainly dry
weather returns Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As a deepening low pressure system climbs up the Northeastern coast,
a brief, limited lake response is ongoing south of the lakes this
evening in northerly flow following the earlier synoptic snow. Off
Lake Erie, expect just a few light snow showers in Chautauqua
County, with less than an inch additional accumulation. Off Lake
Ontario, a broad area of light snow showers extending from the
western Finger Lakes to the Niagara Frontier this evening will
continue to drift southward. This feature may drop a fresh inch or
so of accumulation in the Rochester area, Genesee Valley and western
Finger Lakes, with just a dusting or a few tenths of an inch further
west.

Overnight, the lake effect snow showers will temporarily end. Late
tonight and Wednesday morning, boundary layer flow will quickly
swing around to the southwest. This may briefly support a band of
light snow showers in the Buffalo Metro area off Lake Erie, and
Jefferson County off Lake Ontario. If these bands materialize, they
will be very brief and transient, with minimal accumulation.

Otherwise, the rest of Wednesday will be dry. Lake enhanced snow
showers will start to develop again by early Wednesday evening
northeast of the lakes as a strong cold front approaches, more on
that system below in the short term section.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A pair of cold fronts will plow across western and northcentral NY
Wednesday night. The second stronger front will move through the
area during the second half of Wednesday night producing a burst of
heavy snow accompanied by strong winds that will bring a widespread
1-2" with the frontal passage. Coldest airmass of the season will
also move over the area with 850 mb temps near -20C across the
eastern Lake Ontario region Thursday. The other concern will be lake
effect snow developing northeast of the lakes Wednesday evening on
southwest flow in advance of the fronts, the first of which will act
to enhance the snow northeast of the lakes through the early
overnight hours with little change in wind direction associated with
it. Winds will then slowly veer to west-southwest then west through
the second half of Wednesday night as second cold front moves
through the region. This will cause lake bands off both lakes to
shift east-northeast then east of the lakes by Thursday morning. It
appears at this point that the heavier snow will have moved south of
the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas before the Thursday morning
commute commences. Localized moderate accumulations will be possible
in areas of lake effect snow Wednesday night. Off Lake Erie...a few
to several inches will be possible across Erie, western Chautauqua,
and far northwestern Cattaraugus counties with the highest amounts
across the Boston Hills and Chautauqua Ridge. Off Lake Ontario...3-6
inches will be possible across Jefferson, northern Oswego, and
western/northwestern portions of Lewis counties, with a few 8 inch
reports not out of the question for central/southern Jefferson
County southward to northern Oswego County just depending on
residency time over any one area.

Westerly flow Thursday morning will veer northwest through the
afternoon. This will focus lake effect snow east then southeast of
the lakes respectively through the day. Off Lake Erie...an
additional inch or two will be possible across southern Erie,
Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties Thursday morning, with an inch
or two possible Thursday afternoon from north of Buffalo over to
Rochester with northwest flow lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario.
Off Lake Ontario...an additional 2-4 inches will be possible from
Lewis County southwest to Wayne County. Mentions will continue in
the HWO for the snowfall Wednesday night and Thursday. Outside of
main lake effect areas, a widespread inch or so will be possible as0
the midlevel trough swings through during the day.

Deeper moisture exiting later Thursday as the trough pulls east
combined with increasing subsidence associated with high pressure
ridging in from the Ohio Valley will allow much of the area to dry
out by later Thursday afternoon through Friday. Winds will gradually
back west then south through Thursday night as the center of the
high slides by to our south, with any weakening lake activity making
a sweep from south to north across the area and eventually into
Canada by Friday morning in a very weakened state. High pressure is
then expected to bring a dry finish to the work week.

Temperatures will be below normal through the period, especially
Thursday and Friday in the wake of the strong cold fropa with highs
mainly in the 20s. Overnight lows will likely fall below zero
Thursday night across the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather may persist into the start of Friday night as high
pressure departs east off the Atlantic Coast, before lake effect
snow showers try to develop northeast of the lakes later Friday
night and Saturday as southwesterly flow becomes better aligned
ahead of an approaching mid level trough and associated strong
surface cold front. Cold front crosses the region Saturday night
with yet another reinforcing blast of cold air in its` wake. Winds
veer northwest Sunday with any lingering lake snows shifting
southeast of the lakes.

Other than some localized lingering northwest flow lighter snow
showers southeast of the lakes Sunday night, models fairly well
aligned on an area of high pressure building in across the region
Sunday night into Monday with most of the area dry for the start of
the new work week, before a clipper-type system brings the chance of
snow back into the area by Tuesday.

Below normal temperatures will continue right through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A deepening low pressure system will continue to track up the
Northeast coast through tonight. Earlier widespread light snow
associated with this system has diminished and exited the eastern
Lake Ontario region, leaving a seasonably cold northerly flow in its
wake. Enough moisture and forcing are present in this environment
for widespread MVFR and patchy IFR lake clouds, as well as scattered
lake enhanced snow showers. These showers will be predominately
south of the lakes through this evening, briefly end for a few
hours, then reform east to northeast of both lakes (including
KBUF/KIAG/KART) late tonight through Wednesday morning. MVFR and
brief IFR vsbys will be possible within these areas of snow.

A several hour period of VFR cigs is possible overnight as winds
become southwesterly and advect an area of clearing in the low-level
deck over southern Ontario Province into the region. Confidence is
low in the timing and duration as this area may fill back in as it
arrives.

Any diminishing lake snows will completely taper off by Wednesday
afternoon, though MVFR cigs will likely linger northeast of the
lakes. The quieter weather will be short-lived as another wave of
low pressure approaches from the northwest, causing the lake-
response to re-intensify northeast of the lakes. This is expected to
begin occurring at the very tail end of the 00z TAF cycle with
increasing chances for MVFR/IFR vsbys.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday morning...MVFR/IFR in snow showers.
Local lake enhanced snow east/northeast of the lake may produce
brief bursts of heavier snow and LIFR.

Thursday afternoon...VFR/MVFR in most areas, with local lake effect
snow and IFR southeast of the lakes.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Local IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday
night. Southwest winds will increase Wednesday ahead of the front,
then veer to west and northwest behind the front late Wednesday
night and Thursday, producing a round of high end Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday
         for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EST
         Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST
         Thursday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EST
         Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
         Friday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
         Friday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/PP
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/PP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...Hitchcock