908
FXUS61 KBUF 051805
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure draped along the eastern seaboard will only slowly
drift offshore through Monday. This will maintain fair dry and
unseasonably warm weather through the start of the new work
week...before a cold front brings some beneficial rainfall as it
crosses the region between Tuesday amd Tuesday night. Following the
frontal passage...Canadian high pressure will then build across the
Great Lakes and New England through the rest of the week. This will
usher in a return to fair dry weather along with a short period of
much cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday...before readings
climb back to a little above average for the end of the week and
start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very warm weather with sunny skies will continue across western
and north-central NY today. Temperatures are solidly in the
upper 70s to mid 80s early this afternoon, which is 15-20
degrees above normal for Oct 5.

A light, southerly flow will keep temperatures on the higher side
tonight, with overnight lows in the low 50s across the western
Southern Tier to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere. A few places may
stay in the 60s overnight. The light breeze and lower RH`s should
limit fog development overnight.

Another warm day is expected across the region Monday. High
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s, mid to
upper 80s along the Genesee Valley. A southwest flow will increase
during the day, especially northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are expected
across the Niagara Frontier and Saint Lawrence Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The area of sfc high pressure bringing us this current stretch of
very warm and dry weather will shuffle further into the western
Atlantic Monday night through Tuesday. Further upstream, a
sharpening mid-level trough will concurrently move into the Great
Lakes region from the northern Plains. This will send a potent cold
front towards the region from the northwest, with a solid bout of
showers and potentially a few thunderstorms centered on Tuesday,
followed by a sharp cooldown by Wednesday.

In regards to timing and rainfall amounts...Dry weather should hold
out areawide through at least the first half of Monday night. There
could be some lighter shower activity or an isolated tstorm later in
the night and into Tuesday morning with the system`s warm front and
increasing LLJ. The more widespread showers and higher tstorm
potential will come as the main cold front moves deeper into the
Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains a
possibility of a weak wave of low pressure rippling northeast along
the boundary during this timeframe which could slow it and enhance
rainfall amounts, though timing of this wave still remains somewhat
uncertain. Nonetheless, a widespread 0.5"-1" of rain is likely,
while NBM probabilities of 24hr QPF >1" have steadily increased over
the past several runs to about 40-60% in most areas.

A very dry and significantly cooler polar continental airmass will
move in on the heels of the front Tuesday night, as strong sfc high
pressure back across the Great Lakes. This should cause just about
all of the shower activity to end before daybreak Wednesday. 850mb
temps dropping to about 0C (closer to -2C in the N. Country) will
translate to high temps only in the 50s for most areas.

The center of the strong 1033mb sfc high will be sprawled across
southern Ontario and the Great Lakes Wednesday night, promoting
clear skies and light winds while the cool airmass remains overhead.
This will set the stage for a night with min Ts in the 30s and
fairly widespread frost at elevations around 1500-2000` or higher,
though areas of frost can`t be ruled out at the lower elevations of
the Lake Plains as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong sfc high pressure over the region to start the period
Thursday will weaken some as it migrates across New England to the
western Atlantic through Friday night, maintaining dry conditions
across the forecast area. Long range guidance continues to come to a
stronger consensus that this area of high pressure will maintain its
grip on the region through the weekend, preventing any showers from
a broad mid-level trough across northern Canada from extending
further southward. Latest 13z NBM is now almost entirely dry through
the period.

After another seasonably cool day Thursday a developing southerly
return flow will give temperatures a boost back towards or even
above climatological averages towards the end of the week, though
not anything close to the summer-like warmth currently being
observed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will persist across western and north-
central NY through Monday. Light southerly winds and elevated
temperatures are expected and should limit fog development late
tonight. A southwest wind will increase northeast of the Lakes
Monday afternoon, with gusts around 25 kts possible at KIAG, KBUF,
and KART.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with widespread showers and a
couple isolated thunderstorms possible...diminishing later Tuesday
night.

Wednesday...Areas of MVFR ceilings early, otherwise VFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure draped along the Atlantic coastline will maintain
relatively light winds and minimal waves across the Lower Great
Lakes today. As the high slowly drifts offshore and a cold front
approaches from the northwest...southerlies to south-southwesterlies
will then gradually pick up tonight through Monday night. While this
will lead to the development of some chop...the orientation of the
flow will direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters.

The cold front will then cross the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday and
early Tuesday evening...bringing fairly widespread showers and
perhaps a couple isolated thunderstorms. In its wake...winds will
freshen and veer to northwesterly and then northerly Tuesday night
and early Wednesday...likely bringing advisory-worthy conditions to
areas along the south shore of Lake Ontario...and choppy conditions
elsewhere.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...JJR