489
FXUS63 KDDC 301122
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
622 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight storms possible tonight, especially in the western
  zones and tracking eastward

- Heat continues into Thursday with highs up to 106 and heat
  index values as high as 109

- A stronger cold front Thursday night will lead to storms in
  north central Kansas and cooler temperatures well into next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

As per the pattern, the synoptic structure aloft remains dominated
by a strong high pressure system over the central CONUS. Nearer to
the surface, a weak low pressure system is in place over Colorado.
Earlier this evening some very light showers popped over various
boundaries, but have since dissolved. There is widespread convection
moving into eastern Colorado that threatens the CWA later tonight.
The CAMs have some of this convection entering Kansas around 1 AM.
There is model disagreement on exactly where and how much coverage
this convection with have in Kansas. The moisture is available, but
the CAPE values forecast are significantly lacking in terms of
strong convection. At this time, a severe threat it not
anticipated. The only threats forecast are lightning and perhaps
localized flooding.

Tomorrow is forecast to be the hottest day of the forecast period
with highs around 100-105 degrees. A heat advisory is in effect from
1-9 PM for Meade, Seward, Barber, Comanche, and Clark counties for
heat indices as high as 110 degrees. The traditional heat
precautions are strongly advised. In the previous days, CAMs have
had relative agreement in an MCS coming out of Nebraska late on
Thursday and clipping our northeastern zones. This is now either
gone, or pushed way eastward. Some CAMs have some isolated
convection initiating in the vacuum near those same zones, but there
is almost no agreement. Similarly, some CAMs have some potentially
severe convection in far SW Kansas. All this to say there is high
uncertainty on marginally severe convection, especially pending the
overnight storms. Forecasted soundings have very marginal CAPE and
shear values that really put a pause on talking up the severe
threat. As such, it is more of a wait and see day with a situation
that may rapidly evolve underneath a plethora of uncertainty.

There is a smaller pattern shift beyond Thursday with marginally
cooler temperatures with drier weather. Highs in the mid-to-upper
90s with no forecasted precipitation chances. Nothing out of the
ordinary for SW Kansas in early August.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late evening. Light and variable winds through late morning are
expected to turn southerly this afternoon as high pressure shifts
east out of the Upper Midwest while lee side troughing develops
in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ086>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...JJohnson