609
FXUS63 KDDC 011009
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
409 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog possible overnight, mainly west of highway 83/

- There is a slight risk for isolated to scattered severe
  thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening
  east of highway 183.

- Very windy conditions will be possible Monday night and
  Tuesday as showers and thunderstorms continue across all of
  southwest Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Earlier this evening an upper level trough was lifting
northeast across western Kansas. Lingering showers/sprinkles
continue across southwest Kansas ahead of this upper wave given
the lingering layer of deep low level moisture and weak lift.
As this upper wave continues to move east/northeast overnight
the light precipitation will taper off, however cloud cover is
expected to linger into Sunday. This is due to the slow west to
east erosion of the deep moist layer. In the areas the do break
out overnight these locations will quickly have fog/stratus
develop given the moist upslope flow. Currently the latest
guidance indicates that this fog will reduce visibilities to
less than 1 mile west of highway 83 but the probability of the
dense fog from the ensembles are around 50 percent and mainly
near the Colorado border. Given this limited area and low
confidence have at this time opted to not issue a dense fog
advisory. Will however monitor this closely and issue one later
tonight if required. Despite not issuing a dense fog
advisory....anyone traveling near the Colorado border should be
prepared for patchy dense fog.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday night across
southwest Kansas. A few storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds of 50 mph or higher. On Sunday an upper level trough
will deepen as it crosses the southwest United States. Across
eastern Colorado during the day the surface pressures will begin
to fall as a result of this deepening upper level trough
approaching from the west. This will result in increasing
southerly winds which will draw gulf moisture back across west
Texas into eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas. Sunday night
an upper level disturbance embedded in the moist southwest flow
ahead of this main upper trough will approach southwest Kansas
and as it does scattered evening thunderstorms developing over
northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado. What storms that do
develop will spread into southwest Kansas overnight as the
eastern Colorado surface boundary moves eastward into western
Kansas. A few of these elevated storms overnight may be capable
of producing wind gusts of 50 mph or a little higher given the
improving downdraft cape and 0-6km shear along 850-700mb
moisture transport/warm air advection developing across
southwest Kansas.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon and evening east of highway 183. On Monday the main
upper level trough will approach southwest Kansas during the day
as the Sunday night upper level disturbance exits western
Kansas. As our more significant upper trough approaches, a cold
front will move into western Kansas. The surface trough of low
pressure which will be moving across southwest Kansas Sunday
night is now forecast to be located in south central Kansas near
Pratt and Medicine Lodge late day as the cold front crosses
southwest Kansas. As this cold front intersects this surface
boundary over south central Kansas late day the low level
moisture convergence/lift will improve as the upper level
synoptic lift increases in this area based on the location of
the left exit region of an upper level jet. This will not only
increase the chance for late day thunderstorms across south
central Kansas near this boundary but also given the moisture
return, shear and mid level instability now forecast in this
area there will be a chance that few of these developing storms
late day/early evening to be severe. Large hail and strong
damaging winds will be the main hazards. Currently the exact
location of where this boundary will be late Monday is still
unclear with several of the ensembles placing it east of Pratt
and Medicine lodge. At this time given uncertainty on the exact
locations of the surface boundary and timing of the cold front
moving into south central Kansas am currently unable to
completely rule out the chance for a few severe storms east of
highway 183 as the SPC slight risk highlights. Still with this
said I also would not not be surprised if Monday afternoon
storms develop near the Pratt and Medicine Lodge area and then
move east of this area before becoming severe.

Very windy conditions will be possible Monday night and Tuesday
as showers and thunderstorms continue across southwest Kansas.
Further west of the late day convection potential over south
central Kansas mention above there will also be additional
thunderstorm activity near the 700-500mb deformation that will
be moving into western Kansas. As the main upper trough crosses
western Kansas Monday night this deformation zone will cross
southwest Kansas from west to east and produce another round
(50-70% chance) of thunderstorms Monday night into early
Tuesday. Very windy conditions will also accompany with this
precipitation given the tight surface pressure gradient that
will be present across southwest Kansas, 850mb mean ensemble
wind speeds of 45 to 50 knots and the latest gust via momentum
transfer from the BUFR soundings. Based on this the wind gusts
should easily exceed 35 mph as what the current guidance
suggests...however there is a 40-70% chance for gusts to be 45
mph or higher, mainly north of Dodge City on Tuesday. This
40-70% chance for winds to be gusting greater than 45 mph is up
from 25 to 50% just 24 hours earlier. Those with outdoor plans
should be prepared for these stronger winds given the trend of
the models over the past few runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Aviation weather this TAF period will continue to be quite poor,
as widespread IFR flight category is likely much of the day, as
moist south to southeast winds remain essentially unchanged
other than an increase in speed ahead of the next storm. The
approaching storm will result in increased shower and
thunderstorm chances late tonight (toward the end of this TAF
period), and this TAF issuance will introduce a PROB30 for
thunderstorms at GCK, DDC, and LBL late tonight.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid