021
FXUS63 KDDC 101921
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
221 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal isolated thunderstorm chances (20%) in west central
  Kansas and extreme southwest Kansas tonight.

- Hot temperatures continue through mid-week with afternoon
  highs topping 100 Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Afternoon temperatures continue to well exceed NBM guidance, and
updated to increase highs this afternoon and again Tuesday. Air
temperatures of 105-108 will be common both afternoons.
Dewpoints will remain in the 40s and 50s during the peak heating
hours, with a heat index less than the air temperature,
especially western zones Tuesday. East of US 283, heat indices
of 105-108 support yet another heat advisory Tuesday afternoon,
which matches with WFO Norman/Wichita heat headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

WV imagery indicates a west-northwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains downstream of a flattening ridge axis
situated across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, an area
of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado.

Relatively dry conditions are likely for much of the area early in
the period as the SREF shows an upper level high continuing to
dominate the Four Corners Region through late Tuesday before
finally dislodging eastward into the Central Plains mid-week.
However, a similar set up from yesterday still exists with
isolated thunderstorms likely developing across the high plains
of eastern Colorado late afternoon as yet another upper level
shortwave ejects out of the northern Colorado Rockies. Sufficient
mid-level moisture/instability present combined with steepening
mid-level lapse rates will set the stage for thunderstorm
development as ejecting H5 vort maxima interact with a trough
axis/stalled boundary in northeast Colorado. A few stray storms
drifting into west central and extreme southwest Kansas cannot
be ruled out later this evening as suggested by some CAMs. After
a mainly dry Tuesday, very minimal thunderstorm chances (20%)
return to west central/extreme southwest Kansas late Wednesday
as an upper level shortwave trough climbs northeast across the
high plains of eastern Colorado on the backside of a ridge axis
departing through the Central Plains.

Another warm night is expected tonight as prevailing southerlies
continue to reinforce a warmer air mass across southwest/central
Kansas. With the HREF showing a widespread 70-90% probability of
temperatures dropping below 80F, look for lows mainly down into the
70s(F). Well above normal temperatures are likely Tuesday and
Wednesday with ridging aloft transitioning slowly east through the
region and southerlies prevailing across southwest/central Kansas,
supporting H85 temperatures a little above 30C in central Kansas to
near 35C near the Colorado line. Expect afternoon highs up around to
a little above 100F both days with the HREF painting a widespread 70-
90% probability of temperatures exceeding 100F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Tuesday. South-southwest winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to
30kt through late afternoon are expected to subside somewhat
generally after 00-02Z as a deepening surface low in southeast
Colorado lifts northeast through extreme western Kansas into
southern Nebraska by early Tuesday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031-045-
046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson