353
FXUS63 KGID 290018
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
718 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog (and possibly some patchy light drizzle) will redevelop
  across parts of the area late this evening and through the
  overnight hours. Some patchy dense fog is not out of the
  question. The worst conditions are anticipated to be west of
  Highway 281.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to parts of the area
  Friday afternoon, continuing off and on into the middle of
  next week. A strong to marginally severe thunderstorm will be
  possible west of Highway 183 Friday afternoon/evening.

- Seasonably cool weather (mainly 70s) will continue through
  period. Normal high temperatures this time of year are in the
  middle 80s, with highs in the low/mid 70s more typical of
  late September/early October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Cloudy skies and cool temperatures persisted across the area
today. Some patchy dense fog also impacted western portions of
the area through around 10 AM...with visibilities improving
area wide by late morning. For tonight...expect a potential
repeat of patchy fog development during the overnight
hours...with multiple runs of the HRRR hinting that there will
be at least patchy dense fog during the early morning hours
Friday. Given the light (and favorable) SE winds along with
elevated dewpoints, this seems plausible, so added some patchy
fog to the forecast overnight/early Friday. One concern is the
expansive cloud cover across the region this afternoon that is
not expected to completely dissipate this evening or overnight,
so overall confidence in more widespread dense fog is not high.

For Friday...expected a cloudy/foggy start to the day, with only
a few breaks in cloud cover anticipated by afternoon. Late in
the day, an upper level disturbance in northwest flow will reach
the western fringes of the area by late afternoon. Forcing from
this disturbance is not particularly strong and instability is
rather meager, so widespread strong/severe storms do not appear
likely. That said, western fringes of the area are in a marginal
risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon/evening where the
best instability will reside, so included the mention for a
strong to marginally severe storm west of Highway 183 tomorrow.
Further east, this disturbance is not expected to reach the
Highway 281 corridor until late evening, likely after 10 PM,
with little threat for even a strong thunderstorm.

Northwesterly flow will then continue across the local area
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week, with off
an on shower/thunderstorm chances as a result. This will not be
a continuous period of unsettled weather or washout type
weekend, rather a weekend with more clouds and continued below
normal temperatures, than anything, with the next more organized
chance for showers/thunderstorms coming with the the next upper
level disturbance Saturday evening/night.

As the upper level flow then becomes more amplified early next
week, with a strong ridge across the western US and a deep
trough extending south from the Great Lakes region, continued
below normal temperatures are forecast to continue along with
occasional cloud cover and very limited shower activity
(despite the small pops Tuesday PM through Wednesday PM that are
currently in the forecast).

Overall QPF amounts for the wettest 24 hour period (Saturday 7
AM through Sunday 7 AM) look to be fairly modest, with the
current forecast advertising anywhere from an quarter to three
quarter of an inch of accumulation and ensembles calling for
approximately a 20-50% chance for a half inch or more of precip
across the majority of the local area for the same time period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 718 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including wind details):
The vast majority of the period will likely feature sub-VFR
ceiling, with sub-VFR visibility (mainly in fog but also perhaps
some light drizzle) also a decent bet for at least a few-to-
several hours late tonight into Friday morning. Winds will not
be much of an issue, with sustained speeds throughout the period
averaging mainly under 10KT from a southerly direction (albeit
more southeasterly especially these first few hours this
evening).

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
Out of the gate this evening, both KGRI/KEAR feature MVFR
ceiling. Although there are "hints" from nearby sites that
ceiling could perhaps lift to low-end VFR levels for a short
time at some point this evening, odds more strongly favor MVFR
prevailing most of these first 8-9 hours, after which point
deterioration to at least IFR becomes more likely especially for
at least a few hours during the 08-16Z time frame (LIFR cannot
be ruled out). During this same late-night/Friday morning time
frame, light fog (possibly accompanied by light drizzle) is
expected to reduce visibility to mainly MVFR levels, although as
with ceiling, at least brief further deterioration (perhaps
IFR?) is possible. There is some uncertainty regarding when
especially ceiling might return to at least low-end VFR, and
based on latest model guidance have delayed this to 20Z at both
sites (although this could easily be off by a few hours either
way).

Lastly, there is at least small (20 percent) chance that
isolated shower/non-severe thunderstorm activity MIGHT try
entering the picture late in the period Friday afternoon (mainly
after 21Z). However, with latest higher-res models not in great
agreement on this potential felt that even PROB30 groups cannot
be justified at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch