422
FXUS65 KGJT 131118
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
418 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Friday
  under variable skies.

- An active weather pattern sets up late this week and beyond bringing
  periods of mountain rain/snow, valley rain, and more
  seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Ridging will continue through the short term period, keeping the
weather quiet. Atmospheric moisture values will fluctuate a bit
through Friday, ahead of the big moisture push associated with
an atmospheric river, but will generally remain near or above
normal. This will allow for varying amounts of high and mid
level cloud coverage. This afternoon cloud coverage looks to be
pretty sparse in the northern half of the CWA, but should
persist in the southern half. Cloud coverage will increase
across the entire region Friday afternoon as PWATs above 200% of
normal begin to move in with southwesterly flow around a low
pressure system. PoPs remain low Friday afternoon, even with the
increase in moisture, as forcing from the incoming system
remains to our west. Temperatures will be well above normal,
thanks to warm, southwesterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

An area of low pressure off the coast of California will be the
focus at the start of the long term period. An atmospheric river
will accompany this low as southwesterly flow allows moisture to
start increasing across the area. Previous forecasts reflected this
AR with PWAT values reaching 200% of normal and this hasn`t changed
with the latest model runs either. Ensembles continue to indicate
precip starting Sunday morning/early afternoon, increasing in
coverage as the day progresses. The southwest flow ahead of the
system will keep temperatures fairly warm with snow levels initially
around 10K ft at the start of this event, dropping to 7.5 to 8K ft
by Monday afternoon. Having said that, the timing and track of the
low are still varying between models so uncertainty remains in the
forecast.

A quick, transitory ridge builds in late Monday as some isolated
showers continue across the area. The next system may bring another
round of precip starting as early as Tuesday, persisting through
Thursday as another AR event looks possible. Model discrepancies are
fairly significant, however, so while precip is expected, the
evolution of the system, track, timing, snowfall, and rain amounts
remain uncertain. As of now, the San Juans looks favored for the
most precip and with cooler temperatures expected thanks to the
previous system, more accumulating snowfall will be possible for the
higher elevations.

Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages through Saturday by
10 to 15 degrees. Once these systems move through, temperatures will
drop to more normal values for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 413 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Some broken ceilings can be found across the area this morning
but they remain above ILS breakpoints. These clouds are
diminishing in coverage and this should continue through the
morning hours. Some mid to high level clouds are expected early
this afternoon for KMTJ and areas south. Despite these clouds,
VFR will remain in place.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT