632
FXUS65 KGJT 270424
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1024 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions dominates the forecast through the
  weekend.

- An influx in moisture leads to increasing precipitation
  chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Dry and calm conditions are expected through the short term as high
pressure builds. Dry air has moved in after yesterday`s showers and
thunderstorms, and looks to remain in place over the coming days. As
a result, no precipitation is in the forecast for the remainder of
the workweek. Despite afternoon relative humidity values in the
single digits, critical fire weather conditions are generally not
expected as afternoon wind gusts will be weaker with the building
high pressure. However, localized stronger gusts may allow for red
flag conditions in spots. Temperatures will gradually warm to 5 to
10 degrees above normal by the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

This weekend a ridge of high pressure builds over the region causing
temperatures to rise 5-10 degrees above normal. For the most part
conditions will remain dry although models are hinting at the return
of moisture as a cold front moves from the Northern Rockies out over
the Plains. The front pushes moisture in from the north and it may
be enough for isolated showers in the afternoon. The other pocket of
moisture will be confined along the Front Range so that may support
showers along the Divide. On Monday a shortwave along the California
coast begins to move inland. This along with the high pressure will
increase southerly flow and ultimately advect deeper moisture in the
from the south and east. This should cause the coverage of showers
and storms to increase across the forecast area. Models are
struggling with how to handle the shortwave to our southwest.
Whether this wave is progressive or stalls out, which is a common
problem with these systems. Therefore the details uncertain, but
with the moisture in place afternoon convection is looking more
likely Tuesday through Thursday. The thing to also watch is the
potential for shortwaves across the northern tier of the country as
they can send weak fronts into the region that disrupt the moisture
and temporarily displace it to the south. The increased moisture
should cause a slight decrease in temperatures mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1018 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Expect VFR conditions across the region through the TAF period.
Light drainage winds overnight will become southwest with gusts
20 to 30 kts after 18Z. These winds will die down again around
sunset.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...DB