520
FXUS65 KGJT 142008
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
108 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry and warm conditions persist through the
  beginning of the weekend, with increased cloud cover.

- Accumulating snow is expected Sunday afternoon through midday
  Monday with amounts ranging from 3 to 8 inches, generally
  above 10000 feet, with locally higher amounts possible.

- Temperatures drop to near normal values by Monday, with
  potential for below normal temperatures later in the week as
  an active pattern brings more cooler and unsettled weather to
  the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 107 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

A low is deepening and closing off just off the California coast,
with an atmospheric river wrapping around the southern edge and
drenching the LA Basin. The southwesterly jet aloft ahead of the low
is grabbing some of this AR moisture and advecting it into the Great
Basin and even into eastern Utah and western Colorado. The Grand
Junction 18z sounding has shown a distinct uptick in mid and upper
level moisture, along with an above normal PWAT value. While this is
a good thing, especially ahead of this weekend`s storm, surface
levels remain too dry for the moisture to be realized as anything
other than mid to high level clouds. As moisture continues to stream
in, clouds will increase from west to east through the rest of the
afternoon and into the overnight period. Warm air is also being
advecting into the region, helping to keep temperatures unseasonably
mild. Temperatures will continue to run 10-15 degrees above normal,
even approaching 20 degrees above normal in spots. High pressure is
still in control over the Western Slope on Saturday, with cloudy and
warm weather persisting. The California low swings inland Saturday
evening, with precipitation reaching our doorstep by Sunday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

On Sunday the low pressure system that has been hanging around
Southern California will begin to track northeast towards our area.
The system is expected to bring modest moisture and a cold front,
which will result in widespread precipitation. Scattered showers are
possible in the morning, but by the afternoon they should become
more widespread. Frontogenesis looks to be well organized with this
low so expect that to be the main focus for lift. It will move from
southwest to northeast in the afternoon and evening. There may be
enough instability for thunderstorms to develop as well. Warm
temperatures ahead of the storm means that snow levels start out
around 10 kft and perhaps drop down to 8 kft by Monday morning.
Convection could force snow levels down faster, but road temps could
limit accumulation and impacts. None the less any impacts will be
generally be above 9-10 kft. The low pressure and front exit the
area Monday morning, so expect coverage of rain and snow showers to
decrease. Showers are possible in the afternoon due to lingering
moisture and steep lapse rates in the low levels. Rates are expected
to be on the lighter side at that time. By Monday evening most of
the showers come to an end. A majority of the mountain ranges should
benefit from snowfall with 3-8 inches in general above 9 kft with
locally higher amounts possible. The highest totals as of now are in
the San Juans, Grand Mesa, and Park Range.

Cooler temperatures closer to seasonable normals are expected behind
the front on Monday and beyond. There is slightly better agreement
with the the second system on Tuesday and mid week. All of the
models are advertising another low pressure moving southward along
the California coast, but the tracks differ once it makes landfall.
The trend over the past few runs is a track south of us, which is
supported by the ensembles. We could get still get precipitation
from that scenario, but it could result in everything passing to our
south. Stay tuned to those details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1012 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Some mid to high level clouds will move through today but flight
conditions will remain VFR. Generally light winds are also
expected.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT