297
FXUS65 KGJT 212315
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
415 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of snow is on deck Saturday night through Sunday
  night favoring the southern mountains. Hazardous travel
  conditions are very likely in the high country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Light rain/snow showers will taper off this evening as drier
air moves in from the northwest. Cloud cover will also break up
from west to east across the forecast area, but with another
band of moisture moving in from the southwest, sunshine may not
be a given tomorrow. Locations along and north of I-70 will see
more sun tomorrow than southwest Colorado and southeast Utah.
Despite the influx in moisture, precipitation is not expected
until late Saturday night. Seasonable to slightly above normals
are on tap tomorrow depending on how much sun your location
receives.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Models continue to show good agreement with the cutoff low
ejecting out of the Baja and tracking northeastward over the New
Mexico state line on Sunday. Moisture and dynamical lift result
in scattered to widespread precipitation across the southern
half of the CWA mainly after midnight. This precipitation shield
could reach as far north as I-70, but the the Four Corners area
will be favored. The San Juans, mainly the southern side, have
the highest QPF and snowfall totals around 4-8 inches with
locally higher amounts. A period of moderate to heavy snow is
possible during the morning and possibly into the afternoon.
Snow levels look to stay around 8-9kft for most of the event,
which winds down Sunday evening as the low pressure moves off to
the east. The central mountains could end up with a few inches
especially the southern Sawatch range. As that storm moves on
out onto the Plains Monday, ridging starts building in over over
the Eastern Pacific allowing the jet to dip south over the
Rockies bringing a colder northwesterly flow to region next
week. A cold front passes through Monday night dropping
temperatures up to ten degrees along and north of the I-70.
Can`t rule out a few light snow showers in the northern and
central mountains with this frontal passage. Northwest flow
shifts to quasi-zonal mid to late week, but the question is will
there be any moisture. As of now a significant low pressure is
not expected to pass through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low and mid level clouds persist across the area, with high
level clouds invading from the south. Most locations have seen
ceilings climb above breakpoints, but some terminals, including
KASE, KEGE, and KRIL remain at or below breakpoints. Aside from
that, some light, isolated rain and snow showers are ongoing,
but should begin to diminish over the next hour or two as we
lose light. Ceilings will gradually lift through the night, will
all locations climbing above breakpoints by 12z tomorrow. Winds
will be light and variable. VFR conditions will prevail, but
drops to MVFR/IFR will be possible through 06z due to low
ceilings. Mountain obscuration will be an issue through 12z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT