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000
FXUS65 KGJT 240553
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 PM MST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 256 PM MST Wed Jan 23 2019

Snow has been reported for much of the day across our northern
zones and mountains as the next system drops down. Cross sections
continue to show decent lift through the dendritic growth region
over the advised areas through tomorrow morning so the current
advisories look good. A bit concerned with zone 4 (Elkheads and
Park Range) as webcams already show 4 inches of snow having fallen
there and with more snow on the way, the zone may need to be
bumped up to a warning. Later shifts will need to reevaluate and
upgrade as needed. Short range models continue to highlight some
heavier snowfall moving in later this evening and continuing
through the early morning hours. This matches up well with the
left exit region of the upper jet streak (divergent quadrant)
that will be moving overhead, supporting the wave. This streak
will further enhance lift over the area and thus, the heavier
snowfall. The Grand Mesa and San Juans will also see some snowfall
overnight but generally in the 2 to 4 inch range. A few higher
spots may see 6 inches but not expecting these amounts to be
widespread. The rest of us will see some cloudy skies which will
moderate low temperatures somewhat.

For Thursday, those areas not seeing snow will see a day very
similar to today. Variable clouds and cool temperatures. The
mountains will continue to see snowfall though it will be waning
from daybreak onwards as the upper level support shifts to our
east and winds become more westerly which will inhibit
orographics. By noon, snowfall should be about over though mid to
low level clouds will hang around the Divide until late
afternoon/early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM MST Wed Jan 23 2019

Not much change in the long term period. We stay sandwiched
between high pressure out west and troughing out east. Pieces of
energy, very similar to the one we`re seeing now, will move
through this flow and bring some precipitation to favored areas
which remain the northern mountains. The next wiggle will be
Friday evening through Saturday morning and should bring about 2
to 4 inches of snowfall. Not much by Colorado standards.

The next wave looks to move through Monday morning through the
afternoon hours. Previous runs have been all over the place with
some stronger waves and some weaker. This is expected this far
out. Suffice to say that unsettled weather, with another chance
for snow, is possible Monday.

Valleys look to remain dry except up north where some snow showers
will be possible from time to time. Snow laden valleys will remain
colder than climo while other valleys should remain near normal.

Important to mention that, as of now, these waves look to remain
below advisory criteria though, as with all things weather, this
could change.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1053 PM MST Wed Jan 23 2019

Snow will continue at KHDN through the night before breaking up
after sunrise Thursday. Expect MVFR CIGS and VSBY with periods of
IFR VSBY. Meanwhile, KRIL, KEGE, KASE, KTEX and KGUC will see
periods of snow through mid-morning Thursday. MVFR conditions
will be the rule at these locations interspersed with periods of
VFR conditions. After snow ends Thursday morning, KHDN, KEGE, KRIL
and KASE will experience CIGS below ILS breakpoints during the
remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon. KASE could
be beset with such CIGS through the latter part of the day. The
remaining TAF sites will have VFR conditions through the next 24
hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ002-004-
     005-010-013.

UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL