Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 170538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1038 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 129 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

A weak surface front and trough aloft will pass over the northern
CO mountains tonight. Enough moisture will affect the western
aspects of the Continental Divide to produce light snow
accumulations, generally less than an inch. Some cold air will
filter into northern and central CO to cool the high temperatures
Sunday a few degrees. Sunday will see the ridge attempt to
rebound back over the area but it will get pressured back to the
south as a minor upper disturbance and jet max travel through the
strong northwesterly flow aloft Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

The ridge will build back of the western states Monday and Tuesday
in response to the digging trough along the west coast. So Monday
and Tuesday will return to warmer than normal.

Tuesday night the scenario that has been projected for the last
few days should start coming together. A strong trough will move
onshore over the Pacific Northwest which will split over northern
CA and the western Great Basin. The southern component of the
split will form a closed low over southern CA Wednesday morning
which will help the cutoff low over the Baja open up and be drawn
north and east. The remnant of this feature will spread clouds
and precipitation over southeast UT and southwest CO Wednesday
morning which will spread across the rest of the area Wednesday
afternoon and night.

The models continue to show significantly different solutions
Thursday through Friday. The GFS opens the big southwestern low
quickly and lifts it northeast and over CO and UT later Thursday
and Friday. The ECMWF produces a stronger closed low over the SW
and doesn`t lift the trough over the area until Friday afternoon.
Both solutions bring a warm precipitation pattern with widespread
valley rain and mountain snow expected. Historically, the slower
solution has been correct more often. Either way, the weather at
the end of the week should be a welcome change to the persistent
dry conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1038 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Mid-level clouds will persist over northwest Colorado through
roughly 09Z this morning resulting in CIGS below ILS breakpoints
briefly at KEGE and KASE. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
at all TAF sites with light winds during the next 24 hours.






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