Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 142322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
422 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 202 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

The benign weather will continue through the short term period
under dry northwest flow aloft and as high pressure sits to the
west. Clear skies will prevail with a few high clouds passing
overhead. As expected, temperatures have been warmer today with
most areas sitting 5 to 10 degrees above yesterday`s readings.
This is all due to the arrival of the high and the shift of the
colder airmass east into the Plains. The gradual warming trend
will continue on Thursday with highs recovering an additional 3 to
6 degrees. However, followed similar protocol to previous shifts
by undercutting model guidance by a few degrees, especially in the
snow covered high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

The early morning hours on Friday will see an increase in high
clouds north of I-70 as a shortwave trough and associated cold
front begin to push through the northern Rockies. This trend will
continue throughout the day but conditions will remain dry. The
trough will drop into northern Colorado on Saturday with isolated
showers becoming scattered over the northern mountains by mid to
late afternoon. While the northern valleys may see some light
precipitation on Saturday, the lack of upper level support and
dissipating moisture with this feature will keep orographics as
the primary forcing mechanism. Showers will hug the Continental
Divide Saturday night before drier air is quickly ushered into the
region from the northwest. High pressure will rebuild over the
western CONUS for Monday and Tuesday.

Extended models begin to diverge late Tuesday onwards in regards
to the potential arrival of a trough of low pressure over Southern
California. The GFS rides this system out while the Euro absorbs
it into a larger trough dropping in from the Pacific Northwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 421 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with generally
light winds and a few high clouds drifting overhead this evening.




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