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000
FXUS65 KGJT 062129
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
229 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 229 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

An amplified ridge is sitting just to our east, extending from
Texas into the central Canadian provinces. At the same time, a
weak system is moving through the northern Rockies. Some high
level moisture associated with this system is currently dragging
some cirrus clouds through eastern Utah and western Colorado.
These clouds have caused the steadily climbing temperatures in
lower elevation, snow-free areas to plateau somewhat. That being
said, temperatures in those areas are already running 10 or more
degrees above average. If the back edge of this band of cirrus can
move through in the next few hours and skies clear, it`s possible
that temperatures will climb another 3-5 degrees. As the system
moving through the northern Rockies continues to shift east,
ridging will build back in over the Desert Southwest, placing
western Colorado and eastern Utah under clear skies and southwest
flow aloft. Under such conditions, the warming trend will
continue, with afternoon highs topping out 10-15 degrees above
average for the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

On Monday, the amplified ridge will continue to slide eastward as
several shortwave troughs move into the Pacific Northwest. It looks
to be a warm day under the thermal ridge ahead of the next system.
Highs could range from the lower 70s in the desert valleys to the
lower 50s in the mountain ski towns. Deep mixing into the midlevel
jet will allow strong gusty winds to reach the surface generally out
of the southwest. On Tuesday, the positively tilted trough axis and
closed low pressure will gradually progress southeastward towards
the Great Basin. Associated moisture will begin to advect into the
region and perhaps by late Tuesday precipitation will be possible in
the higher elevations. This could be enhanced by a lead shortwave
lifting out of ahead of the system. Through out the remainder of the
week precipitation chances will linger as the trough slowly moves
eastward and the low pressure finally tracks through the Desert
Southwest. The exact track and strength is still uncertain given the
large spread in model solutions, which is typical with cut off lows.
Temperatures will cool closer to normal values on Wednesday through
the weekend. It appears as of now mountain snow will be focused over
the northern mountains early on, then all ranges, and eventually the
southern mountains as the low moves across the region. The models
seem to be struggling with the speed at which the low exits the
Desert Southwest, so uncertainty into the weekend and beyond is
high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1005 AM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

VFR conditions with only passing high cloudiness is expected over
the next 24 hours.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT