Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 190902
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
302 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across
  the central and southern mountains and adjacent valleys this
  afternoon with minimal impacts expected.

- A gradual warming trend continues across the region with high
  temperatures climbing to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by
  Friday and Saturday.

- A storm system still looks to bring more widespread
  precipitation and cooler temperatures Sunday into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024

A lobe of vorticity on the eastern flank of the nearly
stationary closed low along the southeast California and
southwest Arizona border will push northward into northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado today. The subtle increase in
dynamic forcing combined with residual moisture and strong
surface heating will lead to another afternoon of pop-up showers
and storms across portions of the central and southern Colorado
mountains. Warm afternoon temperatures will support snow levels
near or in excess of 8500 feet. Given expected QPF of a quarter
of an inch or less... and snow ratios averaging to around
10:1... new snow accumulation will only add up to a few inches
at best with limited impacts, if any. Below 8500 feet,
precipitation will fall as plain rain showers, some of which may
try to escape the terrain and drift into the adjacent lower
valleys. Forecast soundings show some dry air in the lowest
levels of the atmosphere, however, which should keep QPF in the
valleys to a tenth of an inch or less. Elsewhere outside of the
central and southern mountains, partly to mostly sunny skies
will be the rule with high temperatures near to a few degrees
above normal for this time of year. That translates to highs in
the 50s and 60s outside of the high country. Fitting weather for
the day when astronomical spring begins (starting officially at
9:06 PM MDT).

A few showers may linger across the south into the overnight
hours tonight, but expect most to diminish with the loss of
daytime heating. Meanwhile, the nearly stationary closed low
that has had a grip on the Desert Southwest for almost a week
now will finally begin to gain some forward speed and will eject
eastward into New Mexico by 12Z Wednesday morning. By Wednesday
evening, the low will be crossing into the Texas Panhandle.
During it`s trek east during the day Wednesday, enough lingering
moisture, weak dynamics, and orographic lift will be present to
support the development of a few more isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and storms across the central and southern
mountains along the Continental Divide. Similar to today, warm
temperatures will keep any impacts from snow negligible.
Otherwise, a ridge building in across the Great Basin will start
to have more influence as the day wears on... with high
temperatures warming a few degrees higher than today. While most
lower valley locations will climb into the 60s, parts of canyon
country in southeast Utah will likely be approaching 70. Safe
to say, Wednesday`s weather will certainly be quite springlike
for the first full day of spring in 2024. Get outside and enjoy!

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Any lingering showers should diminish Wednesday night as the
low shifts to the southern Plains. However, this break in the
action will be brief as a low amplitude short wave trough pushes
over the forecast area Thursday afternoon through Thursday
night. Shortly after, another disturbance impacts the area
Friday through Saturday morning as divergent/difluent flow aloft
working on modest Pacific moisture generates scattered showers,
mainly over the mountains with the northern and central ranges
favored. Despite the unsettled conditions, mountain snowfall
isn`t expected to amount to much through the end of the week
with ensemble mean snowfall totals ranging from a trace to 3
inches. Temperatures, meanwhile, are expected to run close to 10
degrees above normal for most locations with lower 70s
appearing in the Grand Valley and lower elevations of southeast
Utah on Saturday.

Models indicated a change in pattern beginning Saturday
afternoon as a closed low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest
opens and shifts inland. Models differed with respect to timing
of the trough`s passage across the West and over the forecast
area this weekend, so less confidence in arrival of colder air
and onset of heaviest precipitation. As it stands at the moment,
blended solutions favored Sunday and Sunday night for best
snow. By Monday afternoon all operational models had the trough
axis east of the Continental Divide with instability on the
backside of the trough bringing continued widespread showers
over the higher terrain and more scattered elsewhere. Blended
snowfall totals through early next week suggested the potential
for an additional foot of new snow with locally higher amounts
for most mountain locations. Temperatures in the wake of the
front will dip to near or below seasonal norms Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Light terrain driven winds and VFR conditions are expected
during the next 24 hours at all TAF sites across eastern Utah
and western Colorado.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL


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