Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 290455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
955 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 252 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

Low stratus has mixed out of most valley locations late this
morning into the early afternoon, including the Grand Valley,
Montrose, Durango and Moab areas that have been a bit more
prevalent in recent days. Low stratus remains across northwest
Colorado including Craig, Hayden and Steamboat Springs, which is
resulting in colder temperatures than yesterday. High clouds are
moving in from the west ahead of the next disturbance dropping in
tonight from the Pacific Northwest. As this shortwave trough moves
from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West, showers
will increase across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this
evening. The low looks to split from the main trough Wednesday
morning into the afternoon as snow showers spread southward across
the central and southern portions of the area, with the low diving
into southern Arizona and Mexico. Our CWA remains in the
deformation zone through much of the day on Wednesday, so we are
really lacking in the dynamic forcing department. By Wednesday
late afternoon into the evening, snow looks to be concentrated
over the spine of the divide with limited impacts. All in all,
precipitation and snowfall amounts look to remain below advisory
levels, with 2 to 5 inches roughly expected in the mountain areas
over the next 36 hours through Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

Thursday morning looks to start off dry for most areas with light
snow potentially continuing over the northern mountains in
northwest flow. A trailing shortwave will pass through and clip
these NW Colorado mountains Thursday afternoon, with a couple
more inches of light snowfall expected...nothing too significant.
This shortwave looks to drop down the Front Range by Thursday
evening, bringing light snow to the highest peaks along the divide
and areas east. Northerly flow takes hold Friday with dry
conditions as a large ridge of high pressure builds out west. This
high pressure area will move overhead Saturday with warm air
advection occurring as H7 temps warm to +2C to +5C. This WAA will
be most evident on the slopes as some valleys may develop
inversions like we`ve seen lately with each passing system.
Southwest flow increasing Sunday into Monday ahead of the next
stronger trough set to impact the area early next week. H7 winds
increase to between 30 to 40 kts late Sunday into Monday ahead of
this trough. A much colder air mass is projected to arrive with
the passage of this trough Monday afternoon into the evening with
H7 temps plunging to the -15C to -20C range area wide. Snow also
looks widespread as this trough will pass through the Great Basin
and Four Corners region. Still a ways out, but models still remain
very consistent with the track and timing of these systems.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 952 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

A band of light snow is moving into the area now, but is mainly
saturating the lower levels. It will bring ILS cigs to some sites
and potentially MVFR conditions to the higher elevation sites in
the pre-dawn hours. The snow will only last a few hours before
becoming more scattered and convective in the afternoon. The
conditions should improve towards the end of the period.




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