852
ACUS11 KWNS 242344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242343
WYZ000-250145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242343Z - 250145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible this evening. Hail, wind,
and perhaps a brief tornado are the main threats. Storm coverage
should be too sparse to warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery suggests a very weak disturbance may
be ejecting northeast across eastern ID/northwestern WY. Some
flattening of the height field is expected across northern WY over
the next few hours. Southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the
Plains has forced moisture deep into central WY, and up against the
Big Horn Mountains. While surface-based parcels are likely capped
east of the higher terrain, one lone supercell has developed over
Natrona County, while deepening cu field is noted over eastern
Fremont County. Severe hail is likely noted with the Natrona storm,
and is possible with any supercells this evening. There is some
concern the southern influence of the aforementioned short wave may
encourage another storm or two to form along the southern portions
of the Big Horns over the next few hours. If so, this activity would
spread into portions of northeast WY where shear profiles favor
supercells, but the boundary layer is a bit cooler. At this time it
appears activity may prove too sparse to warrant a watch.

..Darrow/Smith.. 06/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   43240705 44220591 43310502 42750628 43240705

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN