203
FXUS63 KPAH 040345
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions expected through this weekend.

- Temperatures will remain above normal into early next week,
  followed by near to slightly below normal by Wednesday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday
  through Tuesday night (30-40% chance). Light rainfall amounts
  up to a half inch are possible, especially on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

High pressure will linger across the area through the upcoming
weekend before gradually drifting eastward into early next week. An
upper-level ridge will remain in place through that time period,
keeping temperatures above normal across the Quad State. That would
put high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for both Saturday and
Sunday. For comparison, normal highs are in the upper 70s. Most
locations will remain dry through the weekend.

As the high drifts eastward, moisture is expected to increase as
subtle trough/low is progged to develop and drift northward from the
Gulf. This will lead to the next chance of showers and thunderstorms
for Monday through at least Tuesday. A cold front will sage
southeast and meet up with the added moisture Monday night into
Tuesday, which will end up being the best chance of seeing more
widespread rainfall. Overall, shear and instability appear to be
lacking with this system, so not anticipating severe weather at this
time. Rainfall totals are forecast to be around a quarter to a half
inch from Monday through Tuesday evening.

Beyond that time period, the upper flow will flatten, allowing
temperatures too cool back closer to normal for Wednesday through
Friday. Highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s through
that time period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Patchy ground fog will be the primary potential impediment
overnight - mainly at CGI/MVN. Otherwise VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...JGG