195
FXUS63 KPAH 190052
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
752 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Almost daily storm chances will be highest this weekend during
  peak heating. Locally heavy rains repeating over the same
  areas causing flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds
  from an isolated stronger storm will be the primary storm
  hazards.

- A more prolonged and increasingly dangerous heatwave is
  expected next week with daily heat indices of 105 to 115.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire for today.
Additional heat headlines (perhaps a combination of Heat
Advisory and Extreme Heat Watch) will almost certainly be needed
for Saturday. Will let the following shift make those calls.

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance is below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The surface boundary is still identifiable as it lays across the
heart of the PAH FA. It serves as a potential focusing mechanism
for updrafts to get going with diurnal heating. Satellite shows
lower clouds hanging tougher on the cool side of the boundary.
Storms thru the weekend will all have more or less the same
ingredients of high volume moisture availability with weak
overall shear, and instability may be or become high at times,
most likely during peak heating. As a result, we anticipate more
of the same...heavy rain potential from storms but flooding
should be localized where storms repeat or hover over the same
areas, esp areas that have had more rain recently. Frequent
lightning and isolated gusty winds are also potential storm
hazards.

Pattern metamorphosis heading into and thru next week will
project to us as an increasingly hot and humid time period with
daily storm chances gradually diminishing toward a drier overall
regime as the week wears on. This prolonged duration of high
heat and humidity will ultimately need headlines, but pending
completion of collaboration, it appears some whitening of its
timing eyes here may be preferred at this writing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 748 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Moderate to heavy thunderstorm activity will continue to impact
the EVV and OWB areas through about 03z before finally
diminishing. Some light MVFR fog is expected around daybreak,
but additional thunderstorm activity is likely during the
morning and afternoon hours at MVN, EVV, and OWB. CGI and PAH
will have lower, but not zero, thunderstorm risks. Light and
variable winds will pick up from the SW around 5-10 kts
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS