439
FXUS63 KTOP 061730
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms through the day today before more
widespread chances return overnight into early Tuesday morning.

- Cooler temperatures move in for Tuesday and Wednesday with a
  slight warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms continue to move
across north-central and far northeastern Kansas this morning
bringing beneficial rainfall to the region. This is all in response
to a weak mid-level wave and surface trough that is currently
tracking across eastern Kansas with additional help from the
proximity of the right entrance region of the upper level jet and
low level WAA within a 25-30 knot LLJ. Through the remainder of the
morning and afternoon, scattered showers and some isolated
thunderstorms will continue across eastern Kansas, with chances
slowly spreading into east-central Kansas as the surface trough
tracks southeast. CAMs depict a slight lull in coverage by the
afternoon as increasing ML subsidence and some dry air mixing in
build in from the southwest. Temperatures today will reflect the
precipitation and CAA from the north as areas across northern and
central Kansas top out in the 60s and low 70s. Areas along and south
of I-35 will see the lingering southerly flow and lack of
precipitation keep temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s
once again.

By this evening, low level convergence within the 850-
700 mb layers increases as some mid-level vorticity lobes advect
across Kansas and help to return widespread precipitation chances to
eastern Kansas. Appreciable instability seems to stay south of the
area so expecting mostly rain showers, but a few rumbles of thunder
could be realized with taller updrafts Monday night and early
Tuesday morning. Ensemble guidance shows additional accumulations
tonight around 0.25"-0.75". Forcing comes to an end around sunrise
Tuesday morning with mid-level subsidence overspreading eastern
Kansas for the remainder of the morning. A 1028mb surface high
advects in from the north through the day, slowly brining in clearer
skies from the north. Expect high temperatures to top out in the mid
to upper 60s. Similar conditions will be expected through the day
Wednesday with mostly clear skies and temps in the upper 60s and low
70s.

The remainder of the week will see temperatures slowly warming back
into the low 80s with some small chances for light rain Thursday
morning (20%). Long range guidance begins to hint at a large trough
entering the central US by Sunday/Monday that could bring our next
chance of widespread precipitation and perhaps another airmass
change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The cold front is nearing KMHK, with 5-10 kt winds turning
more northerly and IFR stratus prevailing behind the front. This
front will near KTOP and KFOE by mid-evening. Showers along and
behind the front will remain scattered through the afternoon,
becoming more widespread by mid-evening and into the overnight
hours. Some brief lightning is also possible, but for now too low a
probability at any one point/time to include in TAFs. Expecting
clearing from west to east during the morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Reese