253
FXUS63 KTOP 042333
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms moving in from north central KS are expected to
move southeast across the area this afternoon and evening, some of
which may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Dry and seasonably warm weather returns Wednesday through Friday.

- Northwest flow aloft brings in chances for overnight storms
  Friday and Saturday evenings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Initial storm in central KS late this morning developed off an
outflow boundary from earlier convection, with enough sfc
convergence to develop a few additional storms early this afternoon
that have maintained strength as they begin to move into our north
central KS counties. This broken line of storms is still ahead of
the sfc cold front in central NE that is progged to move
southeastward into the area closer to 00Z. The environment has
sufficient instability to support severe storms (MLCAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg), although weakening deep-layer shear to the east and better
lapse rates to the south still lead to some questions as to how long
the updrafts can maintain themselves as storms progress eastward.
CAMs haven`t been particularly consistent in how these storms early
this afternoon will evolve, suggesting convection could remain a bit
messy until the frontal boundary arrives to provide better forcing
for ascent. From 00Z until around midnight, a few storms along the
front could produce severe hail and/or damaging winds given
sufficient instability and shear parameters. Lapse rates still look
questionable, however.

Once storms exit the area, high pressure filters in behind the
system to bring drier and cooler air overnight with lows in the 50s.
Upper ridging develops over the southwestern CONUS on Wednesday with
a thermal axis overhead. This looks like our warmest day of the
upcoming week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The ridge to
our southwest and an upper trough in the Great Lakes region leaves
our area within northwest flow from Thursday through the weekend.
Embedded perturbations rounding the periphery of the ridge look to
provide some opportunity for rain, mainly in the form of overnight
convection Friday night into early Saturday and Saturday night into
early Sunday. The more favorable areas for higher rainfall amounts
with thunderstorms appears to be southwest of the area as of now,
but the finer details will become clearer in the days to come. An
early look into the first part of next week shows potential for
slightly cooler temperatures with highs currently forecast in the
low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection this
evening. Main challenge is timing of tsra into the terminals
given scattered nature of the convection. WIll continue with
inclusion at MHK until 02Z. At TOP and FOE where confidence is
low will just mention VCTS from 01Z-04Z and amend as needed.
Winds shift to the northwest and north through the evening at
speeds generally under 10kts. Northerly winds are expected
through the rest of the period after they shift to the north
behind a cold front.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...53