Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240548 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 717 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Made slight adjustments to overnight pops, keeping them out of the
east for a while longer. Watching wind obs closely this evening
as winds are gustier than indicated in models in the nose of the
inverted trough.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

After a few days of spring like weather, changes are on the way
beginning tonight. Low pressure organizing to the west will slide
across southwestern SD/western NE tonight and into south central
portions of SD and NE Tue morning. Primarily, rain shower activity
is expected with this weather system, but enough cool air early Tue
morning may allow for a brief period of a wintry mix across a small
portion of our northwestern CWA. Model consensus still holds onto
highest PoPs across the Missouri River Valley and progressively
lower chances farther to the east and north. QPF amounts will be
highest in those western zones where up to a half inch or more will
be possible. Temperatures will be cooler Tue with highs in the 40s
and 50s...coolest readings underneath the thicker clouds and rain in
our southwest zones. Precip and clouds begin to pull away late in
the period as the low slides farther to the south and east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The recent split-flow regime looks to continue through the long
term. As mid level ridge builds over the western CONUS, s/w energy
will continue to dig toward the Northern Plains. The first system
will be exiting the area early Tuesday night. The next system passes
through Wednesday night and early Thursday. This system still looks
mostly moisture starved, and therefore am only expecting slight chc
pops with the front as it moves through. The rest of the work week
looks dry, with the next chance for pcpn creeping into the forecast
by late in the weekend, or early next week.  Temperatures will start
the period near normal, but should favor above normal for the rest
of the forecast period, especially over the upcoming weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR by early Tuesday morning at
all sites except KATY as a weak trough spreads precip over the area
tonight. Rain showers and gusty northeast winds are expected to exit
Tuesday evening.




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