Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 141124 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

An upper level trough of low pressure remains over the central conus
this morning with moderate snow, along with thundersnow occurring in
southeast South Dakota. The upper level trough, and surface low
pressure will slowly push eastward over the next 24 to 36 hours with
pcpn possibly continuing in southeast, extreme eastern South Dakota
through Sunday. Additional accumulating snow today through Sunday is
best from Ortonville, to Redfield, to Murdo and points south.
Additional snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible. However,
based on the 3 KM NAM and the experimental HRRR, higher amounts are
possible in Deuel County due to easterly fetch of moisture and the
Buffalo Ridge.

Regarding headlines, have canceled the blizzard warning in
Dewey/Potter County with the morning forecast package. Will extend
the blizzard warning in Sully, Stanley, Hughes, Jones, and Lyman
until 18Z. While significant accumulating snow should end by 12Z,
gusty northerly winds will could blowing and drifting snow, along
with reduced visibility beyond 12Z. Will also cancel the winter
weather advisory for McPherson, Edmunds County as hazardous
conditions have ended. No changes are planned for the rest of the
headlines at this time.

With clearing skies tonight, along with light winds along the
Missouri Valley, low temperatures could fall into the single digits,
especially in central SD due to recent heavy snow. Record low
temperatures for April 15th are expected in the Pierre, Kennebec
area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Upper ridging will build in on Monday while a low moves off the
Rockies at the sfc. Both of these features will push out Arctic high
pressure, but temperatures will still remain below normal through
the next week.

The sfc low will move farther into the Plains on Tuesday bringing
some light precip to the region through Tuesday night. Light snow
accumulations will be possible Tuesday night after temps cool and
upper troughing drags in some additional shortwave energy. The GFS
seems to be overdone and holds heavier precip over the region into
Wednesday. Future forecasts may want to lean closer to the quicker
moving and lighter ECMWF and Canadian. Another system sets up for
the end of the week. For now, this late week storm looks like it
will bring a mix of rain and snow. It is still one to watch as
recent runs of the ECMWF are shifting the precip field farther north
over this cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

VFR conditions will prevail except where snow continues. KPIR and
KATY will see periods of IFR vsby in snow and blowing snow through
the morning. Gusty northerly winds will diminish overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon for
     SDZ017-033>037-045-048-051.

     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ008-011-
     018>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ007.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ006.

MN...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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