414
FXUS64 KEWX 161831
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
131 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Showers and even a few thunderstorms are beginning to increase in
coverage across the eastern half of the CWA, especially across the
northern Hill Country in advance of a developing MCS. With this MCS,
damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats,
though isolated instances of large hail will be possible with any
discrete storms that develop. This activity will continue to increase
in coverage and move east across the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area
into the evening hours. The current watch is in effect through 22Z,
though a local extension in time may be needed if storms look to
linger beyond then. South of the watch area, more isolated convection
is possible through the evening. While this activity could be severe
as well, coverage will likely be limited due to the widespread cloud
cover that has been in place all day.

Confidence in the placement of convection, if any, decreases
substantially overnight, though isolated storms will remain possible
across generally the same areas as this afternoon. Chances for
storms look to increase again around and after sunrise tomorrow
morning as a second subtle upper level disturbance moves out of
northern Mexico, but CAMs keep the majority of this activity south
of our CWA border. Any activity that sneaks north of this border
could be strong to severe, and therefore a level 1/5 risk is in
place across the southern half of our area. As we move into Friday
afternoon, a secondary area to watch will be near Val Verde County
as isolated storms may develop across west Texas/northern Mexico and
push east into the evening. A weak front will have moved south of
this area by tomorrow afternoon, which leads to lower confidence in
convection developing at all, but if it does it will be high based
in nature and carry an isolated hail/wind threat. In the absence of
these storms, conditions will be dry and mostly clear for Friday
evening/night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Hot, above average, temperatures prevail over South-Central Texas
through this weekend into next week as mid-level ridging across
Mexico strengthens. Additionally, majority of the period will
include light to moderate south-southeasterly winds off the Gulf
with surface high pressure displaced to the east. This yields to
higher humidity levels, especially across our southern and eastern
most zones. The heat indices, especially into early to middle of
next week, will climb into the 103 to 108 degree range for many
areas. A drier heat is expected out west along the Rio Grande but
afternoon high temperatures will easily climb above 100 degrees
across those areas. Rain chances remain minimal through at least
early next week. An approaching shortwave out of the west could
allow for slight rain/storm chances to re-enter the forecast into
the Hill Country next Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An MVFR cloud deck is in place across much of south-central Texas to
begin the period, and bases are expected to gradually improve through
the afternoon. On the other hand, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will also be increasing, especially for AUS, as we get
further into the afternoon. Precipitation should push east of the
area this evening, though another lower confidence round is possible
through the early morning hours Friday. For now, we have not included
this in the TAFs. Otherwise, cigs will lower again overnight with
some vis reductions possible as well before gradually improving again
through the day tomorrow. A weak frontal boundary moving into the
area will also result in generally light, and at times, variable
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  87  67  92 /  30  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  86  66  92 /  30  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  88  67  94 /  40  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  85  64  91 /  20   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  99  71 105 /  10  20  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  85  66  90 /  30  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  94  66  97 /  10  10  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  87  65  93 /  30  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  84  68  90 /  50  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  90  68  94 /  20  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  91  69  95 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Gale
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Gale