Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 090427

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Storms have been blossoming again across the southern FA. A ton of
CAPE still exists there with precipitable water values near 1.5
inches. The surface wind field is pretty weak, but there is likely
an elevated boundary across the far southern Red River Valley into
adjacent areas of west central Minnesota. The HRRR has been
showing that potential for the next couple of hours. However,
other high resolution models have nothing there. Will therefore
extend precipitation chances in that area into the early overnight

UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

One storm cell remains in the Wadena area right now, but most
activity has shifted east of the FA. The rest of the area is
seeing a nice evening, with light winds and decreasing clouds.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Isolated storm cells have produced a long track tornado south of
Dalton, and recent reports have another tornado now over southeast
Otter Tail County. So for another hour or so, there is still a
threat of severe weather over our far southeast FA. After this
moves out, a quiet night is expected.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

A cold front continues slowly pushing across the region today. Early
this afternoon, the location is along a line from Frederick, to
Fargo, to Cass Lake. MLCAPE along the front remains in the 2000 to
3500 J/Kg range with enough CIN to provide moderate capping into the
afternoon. Effective bulk shear is as high as 35 to 40 knots.
Development of a few light showers ahead of the main front has been
observed, with very little in the way of sustainable updrafts thus
far. However, as the front pushes onward, we should see an
interaction that allows for limited thunderstorm development during
the mid-afternoon although much of the strongest activity should
remain to our east and southeast. Weather-related impacts are
possible should strong storms develop, with Fergus Falls, to Park
Rapids line and eastward being the primary focus through the
afternoon hours. Potential risks include 1 inch hail and wind gusts
up to 60 mph.

Much quieter weather prevails tonight into Thursday, with mostly
clear skies and slightly cooler highs in the lower to middle 80s.
Look for breezy west winds during the afternoon, especially for the
Devils Lake Basin, where we could see 15 to 20 mph sustained winds
and gusts to near 30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Chances for impactful weather will come mainly on Sat and early next
week, in the form of strong to isolated svr tstms. It will be humid,
but temps will hover near average levels for mid July.

Zonal upper flow will be in place to start of Fri, leaving us dry
with near average aftn temps in the 80s. Upper wave pinching down
out of southern Canada Fri night into Sat would be impetus for
concurrent convection. A boundary draped from central ND through MN
Lakes country could be the forcing focus. NW flow would then follow
for Sun, providing more in the way of fair weather.

Upper ridge followed by SW flow early next week will provide a bit
more heat along with increasing humidity. Surface features entering
the picture during Mon should lead to more tstms with a lingering
boundary draped over the area continuing the activity
intermittently through Tue.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Pretty much kept the ideas and timing from the 00Z set of TAFs,
but tweaked a few lines here and there. The main impact will be
increasing winds through the morning, then a fairly gusty period
from mid to late morning through most of the afternoon. These
speeds should decrease again by early evening.



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