003
FXUS63 KFGF 161757
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1257 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to mid clouds to linger through the morning. Temperatures
  warming into the 60s and 70s this afternoon, with a few
  scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through the
  evening.

- Impacts possible Friday. Isolated strong to severe
  thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening.
  Damaging wind gusts are the main concern, but hail up to 1
  inch in diameter cannot be ruled out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Low to mid level clouds continue to linger, mainly in Minnesota
and the Red River Valley. These should push out of North Dakota
shortly, but may linger in northwestern Minnesota through much
of the afternoon. Warming temperatures then look to be found
after clouds clear. Look for 60s and 70s as high temperatures
today. CAMs continue to shower an isolated shower or
thunderstorm through this evening across eastern ND, then a
broad line of showers tonight into Friday morning from west to
east across the CWA. Add mention of thunderstorms into the HWO,
although these storms through tonight are not expected to be
severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Today into tonight: Patchy morning fog will remain possible through
around mid morning where we see the best clearing. Thus far, this
has been limited to the Devils Lake Basin and a few areas along the
International Border. Look for at least partial clearing through
much of the day across the area as we will be between two upper
lows. The resultant shortwave ridge will allow temperatures to
recover well into the 70s today west of the Red River, and mid to
upper 60s to the east. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible later this afternoon, mainly west of the Red River.

Friday morning through midday: Our next chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be on Friday as another shortwave moves
across the area. Several short range ensemble members develop a
weak, pre-frontal trough early Friday morning, which will bring
a slight chance for scattered showers during the pre dawn hours.
This is expected to clear after sunrise, with a strong rebound
in temperatures expected through early afternoon. Highs are
expected to reach well into the 80s, with a 90 degree reading or
two possible for portions of the far southern Red River Valley.
This will be in response to a retreating shortwave trough and
the resultant WAA ahead of our next upper low.

Impacts possible Friday Afternoon: Looking into the afternoon and
evening hours, instability increases, with CAPE values climbing into
the range of 1200 to 2000 J/Kg. Soundings favor the potential for
relatively strong updrafts with multicell clusters or perhaps hybrid
supercells, followed by potentially rapid upscale growth. With dew
points in the 50s to near 60 degrees and temperatures in the 80s,
this leaves us with an inverted V sounding, and resultant DCAPE
values of 1000 J/kg or higher, thus damaging wind gusts will be the
primary risk with any of the stronger updrafts that form. Hail is
possible, but will have a somewhat narrow window during the mid
afternoon. Forcing will occur along a strong theta-e gradient
boundary and the associated cold front to follow. Low to mid level
shear in the 0-3 km layer will be in the range of 15 to 30 knots,
with an favorable orientation for a mention of possible QLCS
formation.

For the weekend and into next week: Much cooler temperatures are
expected in a post frontal environment. Lingering showers and
thunderstorms are possible through around midday Saturday as zonal
flow takes over across the Northern Plains. This will be relatively
short lived in this progressive setup, and another shortwave is
expected to impact the region starting Sunday afternoon. Early
indications show another chance for showers and thunderstorms, with
a few stronger storms not out of the question. Progressive flow
brings several more shortwaves across the area Monday through
Wednesday, with a large degree of temporal and spatial variation at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

MVFR to IFR clouds continue to linger across northwestern
Minnesota, with VFR conditions slowly returning to eastern
North Dakota. Anywhere with lingering low clouds early this
afternoon will see a gradual transition to VFR by mid to late
afternoon. VFR conditions are then expected tonight into Friday
morning. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible to most TAF
sites this evening through tonight. Confidence was only high
enough to place in VCSH in TAFs at this time. Light winds today
will become a steady southerly wind tonight into Friday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Anglin