918
FXUS63 KFGF 170501
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1201 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds gusts of 50 mph are possible along and west of the Red
  River Valley this evening. A wind advisory is in effect
  through 1am.

- Near freezing temperatures are possible in portions of
  northeastern North Dakota tonight and Saturday morning. A
  frost advisory is in effect tonight into Saturday morning.
  Additional freezing temperatures are possible Saturday night
  into Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 30s with lingering
light precip is allowing for some wet snowflakes mixing in with
light rain/mist within portions of northeast ND into the Red
River Valley, including here at NWS Grand Forks. This should
continue as upstream light precip continues to filter in from
the north with slightly more cold air advection. However, due to
very minimal amount and warm surface temperatures, no impacts
are expected.

UPDATE
Issued at 956 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Despite the loss of diurnal processes the consistent CAA and
pressure rises are leading to winds still 20-25 mph sustained
and gusting near 40 mph. While maybe slightly below wind
advisory criteria will let the current headlines ride at this
point until it is set to expire at 1am.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Rain continues on and off this evening with another tenth of an
inch or so expected before rain ends for most Saturday
afternoon. Frost still expected in the upper Devils Lake basin
though poor radiational cooling between clouds and elevated
winds will likely prevent frost from becoming widespread except
in more sheltered areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...Synopsis...

Widespread cloud cover remains in place this afternoon across much
of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A cut off H5 upper low is
moving very slowly to the east, with scattered showers expected to
continue intermittently through early this evening. Ridging begins
to build into the Central Plains this weekend, with the axis being
somewhat limited by short residence time ahead of another system.
This will bring rain chances back into the area Monday into Tuesday.
Weak ridging builds back into the area by mid week with additional
rain chances returning Thursday into Friday.

...Wind Gusts up to 50 mph Today...

Pressure rises and weak CAA will contribute to strong north winds
through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening.
Sustained winds will continue to range from 20 to 25 mph with gusts
up to 50 mph. Winds are expected to slowly diminish this evening as
the upper low moves to the east.

...Near Freezing Temps Possible Tonight into Saturday Morning...

Colder air continues to work into the area tonight into Saturday.
Near freezing temperatures are possible, especially for the Devils
Lake Basin and areas northward to the International Border. There
remains some uncertainty regarding cloud cover, with most guidance
keeping at least a scattered cloud deck over the area through much
of the night. This will serve to inhibit temperatures from falling
into the upper 20s, although isolated cooler spots may see a brief
period of colder temps. The current expectation brings widespread
low to mid 30s into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

IFR to MVFR are widespread this evening and will remain such
through the overnight before lifting as the low pressure driving
these showers and low clouds shifts away from the area. Can
generally expect improving ceilings after 18z for but wouldn`t
count anything sooner than that. Winds will take their sweet
time to diminish with generally gusty 20+ knot winds through at
least early tomorrow afternoon aside from BJI where the trees
may bring relief a bit sooner towards 12z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001>004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT