Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
946 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Issued at 946 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

No updates needed at this point.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Another night of fog potential to be the main concern for the next
24 hours. Return flow around the departing dry surface
high pressure is expected to bring an increase of low and mid
level moisture with PWats increasing from a quarter to near a half
inch by tomorrow morning. Temps will be coldest in the east where
cloud cover takes the longest to develop and in the 20s west where
clouds are already moving in. As saturated airmass with dewpoints
in the 20s moves over the colder snow pack expecting some fog
develop towards morning.

Minimal forcing within the enhanced band of moisture with the
only precip possible expected to be some drizzle or freezing
drizzle in the parts of northern Minnesota Sunday. Temps will be
cooler for the eastern areas with clouds limiting daytime heating
and for those along the sun covered valley temps will be similar.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Chances for wintery precipitation increase late Sunday night through
Monday and into Tuesday. Quiet weather mid week will give way to
another round of precip towards the end of next week.

A strong upper level shortwave trough is expected to move into the
southern and central Plains late Sunday and into Monday. As this
breaks down the upper level ridge currently over the central CONUS
weak westerly to northwesterly flow over the northern Plains will
allow for a weak shortwave to move into the region. As this occurs
broad synoptic lift will allow for widespread precipitation over
much of the Dakotas. Forecast soundings suggests that freezing
drizzle will be possible late Sunday and into Monday across central
and eastern North Dakota as a dry slot aloft prevents ice nuclei
from a seeder cloud layer from reaching the deeper cloud layer
below. This dry layer will eventually saturate during the day on
Monday, giving way to snow as the primary precip type. A mix of rain
and snow will be possible late Monday across southeastern North
Dakota and far western Minnesota where afternoon temperatures could
reach into the mid thirties. Current model guidance shows low
banding potential along with weak winds, so overall winter weather
impacts will be confined to impacts from any freezing drizzle and
snow covered roads. Snow should begin to taper off late Monday
night, though areas of light snow could linger in the area through

Mild weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level
ridge builds over the northern Plains. Afternoon temperatures in the
mid 30s and low 40s are expected for Wednesday and Thursday

Rain and snow chances enter into the forecast again for Friday and
into next weekend. There is good agreement in long term guidance
that an upper level low will impact the region with a higher QPF
signal than what is currently forecast for this upcoming Monday
system. However, confidence in details such as precip type, amount,
and location are still very low at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Lower clouds are pushing into KDVL already. Models continue to
expand these lower clouds eastward tonight, and lower them into at
least the MVFR range. Winds become light, but not really confident
with fog formation, so did not mention any at this point. Once the
clouds get here, models keep them through the rest of the TAF




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