Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 121738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1238 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Temps southeast of Bemidji in the trees have already hit the mid
30s, so tweaked them up a bit more. Otherwise mostly clear and
quiet for this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The weather continues to look very quiet, with temperatures and
fog being the main short term concerns. As for the fog, not seeing
any across the FA at this point. Think with the steady northwest
winds, it will not become an issue this morning. With nearly full
sun expected today, highs should be warmer across the pine treed
areas of northwest and west central Minnesota. There will be more
melting today, which could lead to fog formation tonight, but
confidence in that is pretty low at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Mild and quiet weather is expected through much of the extended
period as a surface high builds over the Dakotas and western
Minnesota. A weak cold front will pass through the region on
Wednesday, bringing northerly winds and a few clouds. Seasonal
temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the
teens are expected through the week.

Precipitation chances increase late week, through the weekend and
into early next week. Upper level ridging over the central CONUS is
expected mid to late week with a shortwave coming over the Rockies
and into the Plains during the Friday night/Saturday timeframe.
Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to show
considerable disagreement with the placement and evolution of the
attendant surface low associated with the shortwave as well as
precipitation placement and type. A second shortwave is likely early
next week and will bring precipitation chances to the region,
although model spread remains high during this time period as well.
Due to model uncertainty overall precipitation chances are low for
this forecast. However, it does appear that the weekend and early
next week will bring the next chance of precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

All TAF sites are VFR with clear skies. Northwest winds are mostly
12 kts and below although they are a bit higher at KTVF and KBJI
and that will continue through this afternoon. Winds will become
light and variable overnight as high pressure builds into the
region. Patchy fog development will be possible, although
placement is uncertain. At this point it seems that the best
chances for fog will be near KDVL, so for now have some 2-5SM
visibility there and will keep the rest of the TAF sites VFR
throughout the period. KDVL will improve by the end of the period
as winds shift around to the southwest and start to increase.




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