643
FXUS64 KOHX 111105
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
605 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet night across the mid state, with clear skies allowing for
viewing of the rare aurora this far south yesterday evening. Temps
have dropped quickly with calm winds and clear skies to dewpoint
temps in the mid 40s to low 50s, so would not be surprised to see
fog development soon. Nighttime RGB satellite shows fog
development in the river valleys to our east at higher elevations,
and starting to develop in the Cumberland and Duck River valleys
here in middle TN. Will continue to keep an eye on satellite and
local obs to see how widespread fog development will be.

Another trough will swing southeast through the Midwest/eastern
Great Lakes region today, and will be close enough that some light
rain will be possible for eastern zones. Added in mention of
precip mainly late morning through the afternoon in the east.
Upper level ridging will move in Sunday so highs should get to be
around 80 under mostly sunny skies. Approaching trough will bring
cloud cover from the southwest late in the afternoon and evening,
and rain chances increase into the day Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Upper trough/closed low over the Plains will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Monday, especially in the evening and
overnight into Tuesday. Timing is not lining up for increased
chances for strong/severe storms on Tuesday, but right now,
Tuesday looks to be the day to keep an eye on. Nothing concerning
at the moment with current model solutions, though. Rain chances
will continue into Wednesday, but mainly for the east as the upper
low will be just off to our east. Wednesday night into early
Thursday should be dry as we get brief ridging aloft, but another
fast moving shortwave will bring rain chances back for Thursday
afternoon and evening. Southwest flow and another trough will keep
rain chances in Friday and into next weekend. Model solutions are
not in great agreement Friday onward, so not too confident by any
means on timing much less any chances for strong to severe storms.
Total rainfall next week looks to be in the 1 to 2 inch range from
Monday through Saturday, so looks like we will keep the more
active wet pattern after this brief dry break this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Patchy fog across the area, with some terminals experiencing
reduced visibilities. Conditions should improve and return to VFR
over the next hour or so. VFR through the remainder of the TAF
period. Winds will become W/NW and gusty (15 to 20kts) this
afternoon, before calming after 00Z and becoming generally
SW near the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  53  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    76  51  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     70  46  73  53 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       78  51  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     72  48  75  55 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      70  46  73  52 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   78  51  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   78  48  80  56 /  10   0   0  10
Waverly        78  51  81  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Adcock