Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 220605 AAC
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
105 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions are much quieter tonight with mostly clear
skies and light ESE winds early this morning. With recent rainfall
and clear skies, patchy fog may develop around sunrise, so have
kept a TEMPO group in for a few hours. Satellite imagery also
shows some low clouds moving from Tamaulipas, MX towards the Rio
Grande so MVFR conditions will be possible, especially in the Mid
Valley. During the day Tuesday, expect dry conditions with gusty
ESE winds in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...Dry air continues to filter in behind last
nights/early morning disturbance, currently located over SE Texas
and the NW Gulf. Another disturbance within a weak mid level
trough is noted over or just south of New Mexico and that might
bring about an isolated showers tomorrow but for the overnight
period will drop all mention of pops and slow down the increase of
clouds. No other changes made at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Drier air has worked into the region in wake of the
thunderstorm complex this morning. VFR conditions to prevail the
next 24 hours with low probability of a short duration of MVFR
visibility if ground fog develops around sunrise Tuesday. Wet
ground, clear skies and light winds could allow for patches of
light fog to form over the air fields. Light southeast winds
expected Tuesday with weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): After some much
needed rainfall, skies have cleared across much of the region
this afternoon. Along with sky conditions, temperatures and winds
have been tricky behind a wake low and MCV that pushed through the
region this morning. In fact, some winds with the wake low gusted
into the 35-40mph range for a very brief time. Winds continue to
be out of the northwest allowing for surface moisture return to be
slow. Additionally, satellite analysis shows a few low level CU
developing across the northern Ranchlands.

All signs point to lower rain chances, so brought down pops this
afternoon/evening just a bit. Overnight clouds will increase just a
bit, however, the best rain chances will reside right along the
coastline through early Tuesday. Overall, temperatures will remain
mild through the short term and and gradually drier conditions will
work back into the forecast by late Tuesday shutting off the rain
chances.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): A steady progression of 500
mb closed lows moving over the West Coast and the Rocky Mountain
States will combine to induce a persistent ridge axis over the RGV
and northern Mexico throughout the long term period. This will
maintain a generally hot and stable atms in place over the region
through Day 7 resulting in near to above average temps for the
region. The GFS and ECMWF guidance are in generally good agreement
in the handling of these features over the lower 48 states.
However the ECMWF is coming in a little warmer versus the GFS max
and min temps. Will lean closer to the ECMWF numbers for the
moment for max temps. Will opt for a model blend for min temps.

NHC continues to monitor a weak surface trough in the NW Carib
Sea for some possible slow development over the next 5 days. Both
the GFS and ECMWF maintain a general northward movement of this
feature throughout the current work week potentially affecting the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. This will limit any potential
marine/tropical affects to the lower TX coastline over the next
several days. Stay tuned to the latest statements and outlooks
from NHC concerning the progress of this system.

MARINE (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Rather benign marine
conditions expected through the short term. Winds may approach the
15kt or so with wave heights around 4 to 5 feet generally,
especially for the nearshore waters. Can`t rule out a shower or
storm especially this evening through early Thursday.

Wednesday through Saturday Night: Broad surface ridging over the
Gulf of Mex will likely maintain pretty low winds and seas along
the lower TX coastline. The lower TX coastline then may see the
surface wind flow shift around to a more E-NE direction later this
week. This will be highly dependent on the overall track and level
of development that may occur with the broad surface trough that
NHC continues monitoring in the NW Carib. At this time no SCA
conditions are expected along the lower TX coastline through Sat.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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