Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 201100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
600 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion


12Z TAF discussion:
MVFR ceilings will overspread most of the area from the northwest
through the course of the morning. Patchy light showers will
develop mainly around GWO, GTR and MEI, but very little impact
will be seen. VFR conditions will return after sunset as clouds
clear from the west./26/


Today: The area has slowly cooled down in cold advection overnight
as low clouds loom to the northwest. These clouds will rapidly
overspread the area this morning with patchy light rain developing
over the north as a secondary mid level shortwave passes through the
region. Not looking for much precipitation as moisture overall will
be quite limited. Cloud cover and continued cold advection will keep
the area cool today with maximums remaining in the 50s over the
north and lower 60s over the far south.

Tonight: The sparse precipitation will end around sunset with a
gradual decrease in cloud cover from the northwest during the
evening. Relaxing surface pressure gradient will allow winds to
decouple and calm after midnight. This with the clearing skies and
drier air moving into the region will allow for radiational cooling
to drop temperatures as low as the mid 30s over the far northeast.
Would not be surprised to see some patchy frost late tonight into
early Wednesday morning in these area and have added this
possibility to the HWO./26/

Wednesday through Monday: The primary concerns for the period will
be the unseasonable cool period in the wake of the cold front for
around the midweek period. Of secondary concern will be rain chances
returning for this weekend.

In the wake of the cold front, unseasonable cool temperatures are
expected to continue into Wednesday with some near seasonable lows
for Thursday night. In the wake of the Tuesdays exiting short
wave a cool 1020 plus mb surface high will make its way from the
Southern Plains to be centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday. This will occur as the upper ridge gets more
amplified across the Rockies from a strong closed low over the
northwest CONUS. Northwest flow will provide cool air advection
for below normal temperatures for the midweek period. Lows will
dip into the middle to upper 30s across the northeast quarter of
the forecast area for Wednesday night. This will cause some patchy
frost issues for tender vegetation. By Thursday morning the
surface high will build to a 1030 mb plus reading centered over
the ArkLaMiss. The surface high will track to the east on late
Thursday as we start to get some low level return flow for Friday.
A shortwave will move out of the southwest US which will deepen a
surface low over the Central Plains as midlevel ridging builds
over the Mississippi Valley region. This will help to increase low
level return flow over the region. The return flow will increase
low level moisture and bring warmer than normal temperatures for
Friday through Monday. Convective rain chances will develop across
the north on Saturday and will be confined to mainly our northern
counties through the weekend. The cold front will stall north of
the region at this time. A short wave coming out of the Plains
will push a cold front toward the region for Monday night. So for
the weekend the best convective pops will be across the north and
will spread across the region on Monday into Monday night. The
Euro had a more amplified pattern, which slowed the approach of
the cold front for Monday night with the midlevel ridge over the
forecast area. So opted to go toward lower Euro pops for Monday
into Monday night./17/


Jackson       57  40  62  40 /   9   5   0   0
Meridian      56  36  62  37 /  17   5   0   0
Vicksburg     59  40  64  41 /   5   1   0   0
Hattiesburg   62  40  66  40 /   5   2   0   0
Natchez       63  41  65  42 /   1   0   0   0
Greenville    58  39  61  41 /  22   1   0   0
Greenwood     54  37  59  38 /  35   5   0   0




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