686
FXUS64 KJAN 071145
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
645 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Today through tonight: The primary weather concern in the near
term will be for a marginal risk of severe storms from later this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Height falls associated
with a shortwave trough crossing the Mississippi Valley will
mostly stay to the north of the forecast area, but there should be
just enough mid level ascent to initiate isolated storms in what
will be a very warm/moist and unstable environment this afternoon,
especially over northern/eastern portions of the area. Mid level
flow should be marginally sufficient for getting a few supercells
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. We expect this activity
to diminish with loss of heating early this evening, and a quiet
and mild overnight is expected. /EC/

Wednesday through Monday: No major changes have been made to the
forecast for the long term period. Early morning global guidance
highlights a 996mb sfc low developing in the Central Plains early
Wednesday morning. Heading into Wednesday afternoon, this sfc low
will begin to track northeast towards the Great Lakes region. This
will allow for a cold front to push towards the southeastern
CONUS and interact with the warm/moist airmass around this
timeframe, thereby promoting the development of isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Wednesday night through early Friday morning
appears to be the best chance for any severe weather potential as
the frontal boundary pushes further south across central MS. With
the environmental parameters highlighting SBCAPE values between
3000 to near 4000 J/kg, bulk shear values of 50-60 kts, and strong
mid-level lapse rates we will continue to advertise a Slight and
Marginal risk for severe weather in our HWO graphics. Primary
hazards with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail up
to golf ball size, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Furthermore, the westerly flow, increased wind shear, and high
moisture content will lead to several storms producing locally heavy
rainfall at times, thus localized flash flooding will be a concern
at times. Confidence has started to increase slightly as new model
data has started to come in, however there is still some uncertainty
regarding how further south the frontal boundary will setup in our
CWA heading into late Thursday night and early Friday morning, so
confidence in the severe weather/heavy rain threat beyond then is
low.

Any thunderstorm chances will come to an end Friday as the frontal
boundary surges further south out of our forecast area. Heading into
the weekend, a 1020mb sfc high will develop in the ArkLaTex region
before slowly pushing east towards our CWA. This will allow for
quiet weather to settle across the south with cooler-than-normal
temperatures expected. Some scattered to isolated showers and storms
will be possible heading into Monday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Widespread MVFR/IFR category stratus will continue until mid to
late morning, at which time mixing should help to lift and break
up ceilings. VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon and
evening at all sites, but a few TSRA will be possible and could
have brief impacts, especially in the GTR/MEI corridor. Another
round of stratus will develop again late tonight into Wednesday
morning in the persistent southerly flow pattern. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  72  90  72 /  30  10  20  30
Meridian      89  70  91  71 /  40  10  20  30
Vicksburg     88  72  90  71 /  20  10  10  30
Hattiesburg   89  72  92  73 /  20  10  10  10
Natchez       87  72  90  71 /  20  10  10  10
Greenville    88  74  89  71 /  20  10  10  60
Greenwood     87  73  89  71 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/EC