Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 220152 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
850 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. The initial area of rain and showers,
with isolated thunder, is moving across AR. Rain amounts have been
light so far and mainly less than a quarter inch. Atmosphere started
dry and will gradually increase with moisture with the southeast
flow. The surface low pressure system was over northeast TX, while
the upper low was over central OK. Over the next 24 to 36 hours, the
two gradually move east, with the upper low moving across AR, while
the surface low will be south of AR. Plenty of rain with isolated
thunder will be seen. The highest rain amounts will be focused over
the southern part of AR, where the best moisture influx and lift
will be seen. Severe storm risk remains low and would be focused
over southern to southeast AR into Sunday associated with the upper
low as it moves through. Some areas of heavy rain will be seen, but
trends and a bit limited moisture flux into northern and central AR,
heavier rain will focus over soutern AR. Otherwise, lows will be
from the 50s to lower 60s. Forecast update will be minor to follower
trends. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/
.Aviation...

Flight conditions will start VFR with some ceilings, with only light
convection over western to central AR. A weather system will
continue to move into AR tonight, and bring all VFR ceilings with
areas of MVFR ceilings with stronger convection. Mainly rain and
showers will be seen, with isolated thunder at Taf sites. More MVFR
ceilings, with isolated IFR conditions, will be seen tonight to
Sunday as the system moves through AR. Winds will be southeast to
east at 5 to 15 mph, becoming east to northeast tonight. On the back
side of the system, winds will become north to northwest 5 to 15 mph
into Sunday. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 300 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday

The majority of the short term forecast will be dominated by a slow
moving upper level low tracking eastward through the Southern Great
Plains and into the Southeast. Enhanced lift at the surface will be
present as a frontal boundary sweeps through the state accompanying
the aforementioned upper level cyclone.

Through the day today a few light sprinkles have been noted across
the state, however moisture advection throughout the day from strong
southerly winds (10-15 MPH with higher gusts near 20 MPH at times)
has brought dewpoint temperatures up slightly into the lower to mid
40s. Therefore, expect showers and thunderstorms to continue moving
into the state, combined with any additional convection formation
ahead of the approaching storm system.

Better forcing for severe weather will be closer to the triple point
feature of the storm system, which will track through Eastern North
Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, main threats for most of Arkansas
continue to be localized heavy rainfall due to the slow moving
nature of the upper level low and adjacent surface boundary.
Furthermore, forecast pwat values near 1.25 inches to 1.50 inches
across the southern portions of the state and theta-e values near
300K will allow for moderate moisture availability, specifically
across the far southern and south eastern portions of the Natural
State.

If any strong thunderstorms form despite limited MUCAPE values less
than 300 J/kg and weak wind shear, the greatest risk will be hail
from elevated convection. Again, the best chance for strong storms
is across the southern portions of Arkansas.

Rain showers will continue Sunday as the storm system pushes
eastward into the lower mississippi valley and western portions of
Tennessee and Kentucky, but will gradually dissipate through the
afternoon and evening hours. A few lingering showers across the
north and east on Sunday night and Monday are possible due to wrap
around moisture, although little accumulation is expected.

Temperatures will be in the 70s for highs Sunday and Monday, with
overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM....Monday Night through Saturday

Ridge of high pressure will be noted over the western states,
with a northwest wind flow aloft east of the Rockies. At least a
couple of cold fronts will ride the flow through Arkansas late
Tuesday and again late Thursday. Moisture will be limited with
both fronts, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast. The period will end with dry conditions.
Temperatures through the period will be at/a little below average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  64  54  64 /  90  90  50  30
Camden AR         59  70  54  71 / 100  60  10  10
Harrison AR       53  60  51  61 /  90  80  30  20
Hot Springs AR    58  67  54  69 / 100  60  20  10
Little Rock   AR  59  70  56  68 /  90  80  30  20
Monticello AR     61  70  55  68 /  90  80  20  20
Mount Ida AR      54  65  53  68 / 100  40  10  10
Mountain Home AR  54  61  51  62 / 100  80  40  20
Newport AR        57  64  54  65 / 100  90  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     60  70  55  68 /  90  80  20  20
Russellville AR   57  67  54  67 / 100  60  30  10
Searcy AR         59  67  55  66 /  90  80  40  20
Stuttgart AR      61  70  55  68 /  90  80  30  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...CROSS / Long Term...46



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