272
FXUS64 KLZK 140550 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

-Portions of west/north Arkansas may see cooler temperatures Sun-
 Mon.

-Hot and humid conditions will become more widespread by mid-week
 with many areas expected to see heat indices of 100 to 105 at
 times.

-There will be continued chances for widespread rain and
 thunderstorms through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The combination of the H500 trough axis in place across the
region, remnant MCV across NE Oklahoma and deep moisture will
lead to continued chances of widespread rain and thunderstorms
across the state today and again Monday. There will be some breaks
in precip at times, but several rounds of precip are expected
with the bulk of the activity influenced by daytime heating and
afternoon instability. Remnant boundaries and sfc features like
the MCV just to the west will help focus precip and may encourage
activity to persist into the overnight hours. Weak shear with PW
values in excess of 2 inches will contribute to some of these
storms producing very heavy rainfall.

With today and tomorrow`s increased coverage in precip and cloud
cover, temperatures may remain near to below normal across a good
chunk of the state. The areas most likely to see these reduced
temperatures include west and northern portions of the state.

Will begin to see a pattern change during the Tue-Wed timeframe as
the lingering H500 trough becomes absorbed into the mean flow and
SE US ridging begins to expand westward back over the state. This
will lead to a general increase in temperatures and limit precip
chances to isolated, diurnally driven activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A mix of MVFR/VFR conds are expected with possibly IFR conds
within/near TSRA activity. Precip should decrease in coverage and
intensity by predawn hours, with mentions of PROB30s in the
afternoon with diurnal heating for Cntrl/Nrn terminals. Winds will
be W/SW at around 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  72  90  73 /  60  20  50  10
Camden AR         91  73  94  74 /  40  20  30  10
Harrison AR       83  69  87  71 /  60  20  40  10
Hot Springs AR    89  71  92  72 /  50  20  40  10
Little Rock   AR  90  74  92  75 /  50  20  40  10
Monticello AR     92  75  95  76 /  40  20  30  10
Mount Ida AR      86  71  90  72 /  60  30  40  10
Mountain Home AR  85  70  87  71 /  60  20  50  10
Newport AR        90  73  92  75 /  60  20  40  10
Pine Bluff AR     91  73  93  75 /  40  20  30  10
Russellville AR   87  72  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
Searcy AR         90  72  92  73 /  60  20  40  10
Stuttgart AR      90  75  92  76 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67